UP Rajya Sabha picks: BJP game clear, what is Akhilesh’s play?

The BJP’s eight Rajya Sabha picks from Uttar Pradesh are being seen as a preparation for the 2027 assembly election. The caste and community break up suggests very clearly that the party, hurt badly in the 2024 general election in UP, is looking to consolidate its vote banks. 

The caste maths certainly backs this. Three OBCs, two Dalits and three upper-caste nominees. The OBC choices span the Lodh, Pal and Gangwar communities, while the upper-caste bloc comprises two Brahmins and a Thakur. The Dalit representation comes from Pasi leader Priyanka Singh Rawat and Vidyasagar Sonkar. 

That spread matters because the BJP’s central challenge in 2027 will be to preserve the broad social coalition that delivered victories in 2017 and 2022 while countering the Samajwadi Party’s attempt to consolidate OBC and Dalit voters around its PDA — Pichhda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak — politics. The inclusion of Dharampal Singh, a Lodh leader, is particularly significant given the community’s traditional association with the BJP and the legacy of Kalyan Singh. 

The Dalit factor is also in play. Rawat brings both Pasi representation and a woman leader into the equation, while Sonkar gives the party another organisationally experienced Dalit face. Two women among the eight nominees add a separate representation dimension.

Equally significant are those who didn’t make it to the list. Despite a lot of political whispers, Union minister Hardeep Singh Puri has not been given a seat. It was speculated that his inclusion would be an important signal for the Punjab polls. Neither did Smriti Irani get a chance, again defying all political wagering.

In effect, the Rajya Sabha list is a rehearsal for the Assembly election: keep the upper-caste base, deepen the OBC coalition, retain Dalit support and strengthen the party machinery on the ground. 

The game however is more complicated when Akhilesh Yadav’s political moves are taken into account. First, he gave a Rajya Sabha ticket to Dhanraj Nathwani. Dhanraj is a director in Reliance Industries and son of Parimal Nathwani – a BJP Rajya Sabha MP. This in itself led to speculation about Akhilesh’s political games. A BJP MP’s son getting an RS seat from SP, that too a Reliance Industries top shot. 

The SP countered this to say that it has always been industry and India Inc friendly, and listed out a series of names that have been affiliated with the party. 

The latest move has now added more fuel to the fire of political gossip. SP, after weeks of talk, has decided not to put up a third RS candidate from UP. This means that the election for all eight BJP MPs will be unopposed (as it will be for the two SP ones).

What this has done is flare up talk at multiple levels about a possible “deal” between the BJP and SP. The contours of the deal being speculated is this: SP is allowed to win UP for support in passing the delimitation bill before the 2029 general election, which is expected to benefit the BJP. The byproduct, political pundits say, will be the defeat of Yogi, which takes him out of any possible PM race to replace Narendra Modi. 

Now, all this is speculation. But politics in India has a strange way of turning absolutely unbelievable rumours into hard truths. Sworn enemies have slept together in the same bed in the lust for power. Polar opposites have come together for quick wins despite their natural antipathies. 

What is rumour and gossip today could very well turn into a political reality tomorrow. Or next year.