India-US Trade Deal Enters 'Last Mile', But New Delhi Signals Caution

The long-running India-US trade negotiations have entered what officials on both sides are describing as the concluding stretch, raising expectations that a first-phase agreement could be finalised in the coming weeks. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, speaking at a public summit in New Delhi, said the proposed deal was in its "last mile" while cautioning that an agreement is not complete until it is formally executed.

"It's never done till it's done," Jaishankar said, adding that the final or penultimate stretch of such negotiations often throws up its own challenges. His remarks echoed signals from Washington, where senior US figures have described the two sides as close to an executed agreement. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has similarly indicated that talks are in their final phase.

India and the United States announced a framework for the first phase of a bilateral trade agreement earlier this year. Subsequent shifts in the US tariff landscape led to further rounds of negotiation, lengthening a process that has now stretched well beyond a year. The talks span tariffs, market access and agriculture, with both governments also seeking deeper cooperation in energy, defence and technology.

Why it matters

A completed agreement would mark one of the most significant recalibrations of the India-US economic relationship in recent years. For Indian exporters, clarity on tariff treatment in the American market has direct consequences for sectors ranging from textiles and pharmaceuticals to engineering goods and gems and jewellery. Prolonged uncertainty has made it harder for businesses to plan shipments and price contracts.

The agriculture and dairy provisions remain among the most politically sensitive elements on the Indian side, given the large number of small farmers whose livelihoods could be affected by greater market access. Negotiators have reportedly sought to protect these segments while offering movement on other fronts, which partly explains why the final stretch has proved difficult to close.

What to watch next

Markets and industry bodies will be watching for any formal announcement or a firm timeline. Until a text is signed, officials are stressing that outcomes remain provisional. Key questions include the scope of tariff relief each side is willing to offer, the treatment of sensitive farm products, and whether the first phase is narrow or sets the stage for a broader pact.

For now, the message from New Delhi is one of guarded optimism: progress is real, but the deal is not yet on paper, and the careful language from both capitals reflects how much still hinges on the closing details.