24 Hours After Trump Said 'They Agreed to Stop,' Iran Struck Three US Bases
By Squirrels·
The Timeline That Speaks for Itself
June 9, 2026, evening. President Trump tells reporters: "They both agreed, through me, to stop. We're in the final throes of a very good deal... The Strait will open up right away. It'll open up immediately upon signing, which could be in two or three days."
June 10, 2026, early morning. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launches 12 ballistic missiles at the Al-Azraq air base in Jordan — a facility that satellite imagery from February showed hosting more than 60 US aircraft, including 30 F-35 stealth fighters and 36 F-15 fighter jets. Simultaneously, the IRGC launches drone attacks on the US Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain and the Ali Al Salem air base in Kuwait.
Twenty-four hours. That is the gap between "they agreed to stop" and a coordinated three-country strike on American military infrastructure.
What Iran Claims
The IRGC, in a statement carried by Iranian state media, said it attacked 21 US targets across three countries and destroyed four, including:
An F-35 fighter jet hangar at Al-Azraq, Jordan
A command-and-control centre at Al-Azraq
Facilities at Ali Al Salem, Kuwait
Elements of the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain
The IRGC said the strikes targeted "locations hosting American F-35, F-15, and F-16 fighter aircraft" and were retaliation for US strikes on Iranian ports and islands in the Strait of Hormuz and the downing of a US helicopter over the Strait.
Iran's state media published photos of a destroyed drinking water reservoir that officials attributed to a US strike, and images of munition fragments that experts told CNN appeared to be from a US-made bomb.
What Is Verified — and What Is Not
Verified:
The US Embassy in Amman issued a shelter-in-place alert: "Reports indicate missiles, drones, or rockets are in Jordanian airspace."
Jordanian and US air defences engaged incoming projectiles.
The IRGC confirmed launching 12 ballistic missiles at Jordan.
Iran also confirmed attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain.
This was the second consecutive day Iran targeted Al-Azraq.
Not independently verified:
Iran's claim of destroying F-35 hangars and a command centre. CNN reported it could not independently verify IRGC damage claims. The IRGC provided no satellite imagery or visual evidence of damage to Al-Azraq.
The number of US aircraft at the base at the time of the strike. The 60+ aircraft figure is from February 2026 satellite imagery. Aircraft may have been relocated since.
US casualty figures. No confirmed US casualties have been reported, but the Pentagon has not issued a comprehensive damage assessment.
The pattern from previous strikes: In the February 28 attack on Jordan, Jordanian air defences intercepted 49 drones and missiles, including 13 ballistic missiles. In the June 2025 strikes on Qatar's Al Udeid base, Qatar reported no casualties and said the base had been evacuated. Iran's track record of claiming destruction that is subsequently contradicted by damage assessments is documented.
What Triggered This Round
The escalation sequence over the preceding 48 hours:
1. The US struck Iranian ports and islands in the Strait of Hormuz — targeting military infrastructure around Bandar Abbas, Iran's most strategically vital naval port.
2. A US military helicopter was downed over the Strait of Hormuz. Trump acknowledged the incident, saying "the pilots are fine."
3. Iran retaliated with the three-country strike on Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain.
4. Trump responded: Iran will "pay the price" for "taking too long to negotiate a deal."
This is the tit-for-tat cycle that the "deal" was supposed to end. Each side frames its strikes as retaliation for the other's. Each round expands the geographic scope. The February strikes hit Iran and Jordan. The June strikes hit Iran, Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain. The next round, if it comes, risks pulling more regional states into direct involvement.
What This Does to the Deal
The Trump-Iran deal article we published on June 9 documented eight previous announcements of an imminent deal — each followed by escalation, denial, or extended timelines.
The June 10 strikes add a ninth data point — and the most damaging one. The previous eight were diplomatic failures: deadlines missed, terms disputed, timelines extended. This is a military escalation occurring within 24 hours of a ceasefire announcement.
The 60-day MOU that was reportedly "mostly completed" required, at minimum:
Both sides stop attacking each other ← violated
Strait of Hormuz reopened ← still closed
Nuclear negotiations begin ← not started
Every precondition has now been pushed further from realisation, not closer.
What This Means for India
Every escalation that delays the Strait's reopening extends the crisis documented across our Hormuz series:
Oil remains above $100/bbl. The deal optimism that pushed markets up on June 9 will reverse on June 10 trading.
OMC losses continue at ₹1,000 crore/day. Every day the Strait stays closed costs India's oil marketing companies.
The SPR countdown accelerates. Global strategic reserves are draining at 4 million bpd. Each week of delay brings the buffer closer to exhaustion.
The rupee remains under pressure. No Hormuz reopening means no relief on the current account deficit.
The ethanol excise waiver we analysed yesterday — zero duty on E22–E30 fuel — takes on additional urgency. If the Strait stays closed through Q3, structural crude import reduction is not an aspirational goal. It is a survival strategy.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did Iran strike a US base in Jordan?
Yes. On June 10, 2026, Iran's IRGC launched 12 ballistic missiles at the Al-Azraq air base in Jordan, targeting facilities that hosted F-35 and F-15 fighter aircraft. The IRGC also struck bases in Kuwait and Bahrain simultaneously.
Were F-35 fighters destroyed?
Iran claims it destroyed F-35 hangars and a command centre. This has not been independently verified. CNN could not confirm damage claims. The Pentagon has not released a damage assessment.
Didn't Trump say both sides agreed to stop?
Yes. On June 9 — less than 24 hours before the strikes — Trump said Iran and Israel had "agreed, through me, to stop." Iran's June 10 strikes directly contradict that claim.
What does this mean for the Iran deal?
The strikes push every precondition of the proposed 60-day MOU further from realisation. The ceasefire has been violated. The Strait remains closed. Nuclear talks have not begun.
The Bottom Line
The data now contains nine announcements of an imminent deal and zero signed agreements. The latest entry is the most consequential: not a missed deadline or a disputed term, but a ballistic missile strike on a US air base 24 hours after the president declared both sides had agreed to stop.
For India, the calculation is unchanged: until tankers are transiting the Strait, the deal is words. After June 10, even the words are contradicted by the missiles.