The Deal Lasted 27 Days. The Strait Is Closed Again. 300 Targets Hit in Three Nights.

27 Days

June 14, 2026. The Islamabad MoU is signed. Trump writes on Truth Social: "Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!" The Squirrels publishes: "The Tenth Announcement Was the Real One."

July 11, 2026. Trump declares the ceasefire "over." The US strikes 140 Iranian military targets in a single night — the third round of strikes in a week. Total targets hit across three nights: 300+. Iran declares the Strait of Hormuz "closed until further notice."

Twenty-seven days. That is how long the peace lasted.

What Happened This Week

The collapse unfolded in three stages across four days.

Stage 1: The Ship Attack (Wednesday–Thursday)

The IRGC struck the M/V GFS Galaxy — a Cyprus-flagged container ship — while it transited the Strait of Hormuz. The vessel caught fire. Its engine room was severely damaged. One civilian crew member is missing.

The IRGC claimed it fired a "warning shot" at a vessel using an "unauthorized route." CENTCOM called it a "blatant attack on a commercial vessel."

Stage 2: The IRGC Declaration (Saturday)

Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz "closed until further notice" — stating the waterway would remain shut until "the end of US interference in this region." The IRGC warned that any retaliation would be met with a "severe response."

This is the second Hormuz closure in 2026. The first lasted 102 days (March 4 – June 14). The peace deal was supposed to prevent a second one.

Stage 3: The US Strikes + Regional Escalation (Saturday–Sunday)

CENTCOM launched its third round of strikes — hitting approximately 140 Iranian targets including:

• Missile and drone launch sites

• Naval capabilities

• Ammunition storage facilities

• Communication networks

• Coastal surveillance positions

Trump told NBC: "We bombed the hell out of them last night." Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth posted: "Iran made a poor choice. Now they pay."

Iran responded by striking targets across five countries:

The attack on Oman — which had been mediating between the US and Iran hours before the strike — is the most significant escalation. Oman was facilitating Hormuz management talks between Iranian FM Araghchi and Omani FM Albusaidi on Saturday. By Sunday, Iranian drones had struck Omani territory. The mediator was hit.

The New Supreme Leader's First Act

Iran's new Supreme Leader — Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the opening US-Israeli strikes on February 28 — issued his first substantive statement since his father's funeral.

"Revenge is the will of our nation and must certainly be carried out."

The statement, carried on state television, vowed that retaliation for his father's assassination would come "regardless of future developments." Military advisor General Mohsen Rezaei added that Trump and Netanyahu had crossed Iran's "red lines" and must face "firm and appropriate punishment."

Parliament speaker Qalibaf wrote on social media: "The era of one-sided deals is OVER. We told you: keep your word or pay the price."

What Killed the Deal?

The Islamabad MoU contained 14 points. The one that mattered most — the Strait of Hormuz remaining open — depended on a mutual understanding that neither side would attack commercial shipping or resume military operations.

The sequence of violations:

Week 1–2 post-deal: Commercial shipping resumed cautiously. One Qatari LNG tanker transited. Oil markets rallied.

Week 3: The US maintained naval presence in the strait. Iran objected to the scale and positioning of US forces. Iran demanded vessels follow Iranian-designated routes.

Week 4: Trump declared the ceasefire "over" after Iran allegedly harassed multiple commercial vessels attempting transit without following Iranian routing demands. The IRGC attacked the GFS Galaxy. The US launched 300+ strikes in three nights.

The structural flaw our earlier analysis identified — "the deal ends one war but does not resolve the conditions that caused it" — has been validated. The MoU was a framework agreement. It was not a peace treaty. And frameworks collapse when the underlying disagreements (who controls Hormuz, what constitutes "interference," whether Iran can impose routing on international waterways) are deferred rather than resolved.

What This Means for India — Again

Every metric from our original Hormuz crisis analysis is back in play.

Oil prices: Will surge again. The Hormuz closure removes the same 40%+ of crude flows that were disrupted in March–June.

OMCs: The ₹1,000 crore/day loss calculation resumes — but this time, OMCs have already accumulated ₹75,000 crore in losses from the first closure and have not recovered them.

Rupee: The currency hit record lows of ₹92.3/USD during the first closure. It had partially recovered. It will face renewed pressure.

SPR: Global strategic petroleum reserves were significantly drawn down during the first closure. The buffer is thinner this time.

The ethanol urgency is now existential. Our analysis of the excise waiver on E22–E30 fuel described it as a structural response to import dependency. With a second Hormuz closure, the structural response is no longer aspirational. India's 88% oil import dependency is being tested twice in six months.

The Deal Tracker — Updated

The pattern we documented from March through June — announcements that didn't hold — has now absorbed the one announcement that did. The MoU was signed. It was real. And it lasted less than a month.

The Bottom Line

The peace deal that The Squirrels tracked across ten articles — from the first deadline that missed to the tenth announcement that succeeded — has collapsed after 27 days.

The Strait of Hormuz is closed again. Three hundred targets have been hit in three nights. Five Gulf nations are under fire. Iran's new Supreme Leader has vowed revenge. The mediator — Oman — has been struck by the country it was mediating for.

For India, the crisis is not a repeat. It is worse. The first closure lasted 102 days and cost India ₹1,000 crore daily in OMC losses, $20 billion in FPI outflows, and a rupee at record lows. The second closure arrives with thinner strategic reserves, unrecovered OMC losses, and the knowledge that the peace deal that was supposed to prevent this exact scenario lasted exactly 27 days.