Budget 2024 to boost trade and stocks: Bloomberg survey respondents

Survey participants feel India’s $5 trillion stock market could gain up to 20 per cent over the year, driven by corporate earnings and government spending

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The Union Budget of Modi 3.0 should bolster spending and provide impetus to infrastructure, which in turn would boost trade

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The upcoming Union Budget of Modi 3.0 should bolster spending of average Indians and provide impetus to infrastructure growth, which in turn would boost trade across all sectors, claim most the select investors and market watchers who participated in a pre-Budget survey by Bloomberg.

CONSUMER-FRIENDLY BUDGET

A majority among the 24 participants surveyed feel the Budget 2024, scheduled to be presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in July end, should be positive for sectors such as affordable housing, consumer businesses and capex plays.

The consumer sector has become a priority for investors, who expect populist measures from the government after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party, The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), returned to power for a third term with only 240 seats on its own in the recent Lok Sabha election. The sector is also currently seeing a boost thanks to an early monsoon that augurs well for traders dealing with crops, especially corn, soya bean and rice.

About 50 per cent of participants hope that Modi 3.0 will prioritise a balance when it comes to incentives, and support consumption even as it continues with the capital expenditure necessary for infrastructure development. On the other hand, 25 per cent of the respondents feel the government should prioritise capex, and another set of 25 per cent survey participants want consumer demand to be boosted before anything else.

BOOM IN MARKETS

The survey respondents believe the nation’s $5 trillion stock market could see gains up to 20 per cent over the year, driven by sustained corporate earnings and government spending.

Over 50 per cent of the survey participants feel the NSE Nifty50 Index, which has seen a record-setting 12-per cent rise so far in 2024, might reach 26,000 points by the yearend. The survey shows at least one respondent was confident the benchmark index would surge further. While 13 respondents are of the opinion that earnings of Nifty components would remain steady, five respondents feel there is excess optimism over the matter.

The MSCI India Index, which measures the performance of large and mid-cap segments of the market, will see an estimated 15.6 per cent rise in earnings per share all through 2024, says Bloomberg data, compared to a projected 10-per cent increase for Chinese companies.

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