CII Business Confidence Index at 68.2 in July-Sep, industry upbeat

The CII Business Confidence Index recorded a two-quarter high of 68.2 in the July-September period of the ongoing fiscal year (FY25). This was revealed by the 128th round of the CII Business Outlook Survey conducted in September 2024, covering over 200 firms across sectors and regions.

The overall mood of the industry sector is one of optimism, showed the first survey since the 2024 Lok Sabha elections conducted by CII, or Confederation of Indian Industry, a non-governmental trade association and advocacy group headquartered in New Delhi and founded in 1895. The confederation was, notably, confident the upcoming festive season would boost the scope of growth for Indian traders, the survey said.

INDIA’S GROWTH IS ON DESPITE GLOBAL GLITCHES

According to the survey, given the good show of the July-September quarter of FY25, or the fiscal year 2024-’25, the membership-based confederation was of the opinion that economic momentum in India has surged after the elections. Survey respondents added the nation’s growth is on course despite global impediments including international political tensions and economic recession.

CII members who participated in the survey cited focus on reforms, surge in consumption (particularly in the rural segment), fresh private investment opportunities and steady monsoon as factors that would primarily drive growth in FY25. As many as 59 per cent of the members surveyed said that they were hopeful of better private capex in the first half of FY25 compared to numbers garnered in the six months before.

CII FORECASTS ON RBI RATE CUT

Among CII members who participated in the survey, 34 per cent said they were of the opinion that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) would start its cycle of cutting rates around October-December this year, or the third quarter of FY25. Another 31 per cent anticipated that India’s central bank would cut rates by the last quarter of FY25, or January-March next year.

“With banking liquidity in surplus in the recent period, we can expect the central bank to provide some easing in interest rates or at least a change in policy stance in the upcoming monetary policy in October,” the survey said.

GLOBAL UNREST, PRICES AMONG BIG CONCERNS

Respondents of the survey, however, cautioned of global uncertainties and highlighted the need for “a careful watch on the evolving economic conditions” around the world. Rise in commodity prices all around the world including India and a slump in external demand were other vital areas of concern.