Congress Sees Kerala Hope After Series Of Losses: Pre-Poll Survey

Voters in India’s southern state of Kerala are showing signs of broad dissatisfaction with the incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF) government ahead of assembly elections due in 2026, with the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) holding an early advantage, according to a survey released on Tuesday.

Widespread Anti-Incumbency Sentiment

The State Vibe survey by Vote Vibe, based on 1,419 computer-assisted telephone interviews conducted across the state, found that anti-incumbency sentiment was visible across regions, age groups and social categories, suggesting that voter discontent is not confined to isolated pockets.

The survey, which has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points, showed a near-even rural–urban split among respondents, with 52% from rural areas and 48% from urban centres, indicating that dissatisfaction with the government spans Kerala’s geographic divide.

The CPI (M)-led LDF, which has been in power for two terms – by itself a major feat in a state that flips every five years – is facing a very strong resistance this time round, the pre-poll survey suggests.

The Headline Numbers

• More than half of the voters surveyed, 51.9%, say that the government’s performance has been very poor or poor.

• The UDF has a fair lead over the LDF in voter preference, 32.7% vs 29.3%.

• The youth are particularly unhappy: 42% in the age group of 18-24 want the UDF.

• The top issues are economic: price rise for 22.7%, corruption for 18.4% and unemployment for 18.2% of those surveyed.

• Alcoholism at 11.7% is also a high-concern area for voters.

Economic Drivers and the Youth Vote

Economic concerns have emerged as the dominant factor shaping voter attitudes, the survey found, with employment prospects, cost-of-living pressures and perceptions of economic management outweighing ideological considerations or traditional alliance loyalties.

Younger voters appear to be playing a decisive role. Respondents aged 18 to 24 accounted for 22% of the sample, making them the largest age cohort surveyed, while voters aged 55 and above made up 17%. Analysts say the prominence of youth voters, who are prioritising jobs and governance reforms, could amplify electoral volatility in closely contested constituencies.

Demographic Breakdown and Political Outlook

The survey’s social composition included Other Backward Classes at 33%, Muslims at 27%, Christians at 18%, Scheduled Castes at 9%, Scheduled Tribes at 1% and general category voters at 10%, suggesting that voter dissatisfaction cuts across Kerala’s key communities rather than being concentrated within any single bloc.

Political analysts said such a broad-based mood typically benefits opposition alliances that can consolidate disparate grievances, while posing a challenge for incumbents seeking to rely on traditional support bases to offset losses elsewhere.

While the survey indicates that the Congress-led UDF is better placed at this stage to capitalise on the prevailing sentiment, it cautioned that voter preferences remain fluid more than a year before polling. Kerala’s elections have historically seen late shifts driven by campaign dynamics, leadership choices and alliance strategies.

Still, the early findings suggest that the ruling LDF enters the election cycle facing a convergence of economic anxiety, youth-driven expectations and statewide anti-incumbency — factors that could turn the 2026 contest into a referendum on governance performance rather than ideology.