Economic Survey 2025 says India to grow at 6.3-6.8% in 2026

The first advance estimate for FY25 released in January was lower than the previous Economic Survey estimate of 6.5-7% growth and RBI's revised foretelling of 6.6% growth

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Economic Survey 2025 says India to grow at 6.3-6.8% in 2026

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India's economy is projected to expand at a rate of 6.3% to 6.8% during the financial year 2025-26, as indicated in the Economic Survey presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on January 31. This forecast aligns with the International Monetary Fund's estimate of 6.5%, although it falls short of the World Bank's projection of 6.7%.

The Economic Survey is typically released one day before the Union Budget presentation, where significant attention will be directed towards the finance minister's strategies to enhance consumption and support economic growth while maintaining fiscal discipline.

Economic Survey: Facts and figures

For the fiscal year 2024-25, the Indian economy is anticipated to grow by 6.4%, based on the initial advance estimates published by the government on January 7.

This forecast is a reduction from the previous Economic Survey's prediction of 6.5% to 7% growth and the Reserve Bank of India's adjusted estimate of 6.6%.

A lacklustre performance in the manufacturing sector and a slowdown in capital expenditure have contributed to a decline in growth during the second quarter, with real GDP growth dropping to a near two-year low of 6.5% in Q2FY25.

In the first half of the fiscal year, the economy recorded a growth rate of 6%, necessitating a 6.8% growth rate in the second half to meet the government's target.

Recent results from major fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies for the third quarter, released earlier this week, suggest that urban consumption has not yet shown significant improvement. This, along with a deceleration in credit growth, indicates a sluggish consumption trend for the quarter.

Furthermore, India's business activity experienced a decline, reaching a 14-month low in January, primarily driven by a downturn in the services sector.

economy Nirmala Sitharaman Budget
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