How caste census will work: All questions answered

In light of the ongoing public debate on the Narendra Modi administration's ideological compromise in refusing and then accepting a 'caste census' and the Indian National Congress leader and Leader of the Opposition, Rahul Gandhi, exulting in having successfully pressured the government, here is an analysis of the methodology for incorporating castes into the laborious statistical exercise, the legal framework that underpins this initiative, and the potential implications it may have on the nation's reservation policy.

India is set to conduct its first caste enumeration in nearly a century as part of the long-delayed decennial census. If carried out, this will be the most comprehensive exercise in recording caste identities since the 1931 census under British rule. With the central government, led by the BJP, now expressing willingness to collect data on Other Backward Classes (OBCs), this marks a major policy shift with significant political and social implications.

However, the move also throws up important legal, procedural, and logistical challenges: Does the law allow for caste data to be collected? Which list of OBCs will be used? What groundwork must be completed before enumeration begins? And what problems might arise during or after the process?

No new law needed to count caste

Contrary to what some may assume, the inclusion of caste in the census does not require an amendment to the census Act, 1948. Under existing provisions, the registrar-general and census commissioner (RG&CC) is empowered to design the proforma — the official set of forms used for both the house listing and population enumeration phases.

During the second phase, which involves collecting data directly from individuals, the RG&CC can expand beyond the existing caste categories (General, Scheduled Castes, and Scheduled Tribes) to include OBCs and ask respondents to specify their particular sub-caste. This change only requires the updated proforma to be published via a formal notification in the official gazette.

A former census official confirmed: “There is no legal barrier to adding caste as a category. It’s purely an administrative decision.”

The central dilemma: Which OBC list?

The more complex — and politically sensitive — issue is deciding which list of OBCs will be used to classify responses.

In previous censuses, data on SCs and STs was gathered based on lists notified through the Constitution (Scheduled Castes) Order, 1950 and the Constitution (Scheduled Tribes) Order, 1950. These are authoritative and periodically updated by Parliament.

But OBCs are a different matter. There is no single, nationwide list. The National Commission for Backward Classes (NCBC) maintains a central list used to determine eligibility for reservations in central government jobs and educational institutions. Alongside this, each state has its own OBC list, which often includes more communities than the central list and sometimes uses different classification criteria.

The government will now have to choose between relying solely on the NCBC’s central list, which includes 2,650 communities, or adopting a hybrid approach that incorporates state lists. Either choice is fraught with political consequences, especially in the context of future reservation policies.

A long road to enumeration

Even after a final decision is made, implementing the new framework will take time. Based on preparations undertaken before the postponed 2021 census, officials estimate a minimum of six months will be needed before actual enumeration can begin.

The sequence begins with the Union government issuing a formal notification to initiate the census. Each state must then issue its own notification — a process that could take up to two months. After that, the census proforma must be finalised and officially published.

The original 2021 census was also set to be India’s first digital census, with enumerators using mobile applications rather than paper forms. That software will now need to be updated to include a new section for caste data, complete with dropdown menus listing OBC categories.

Since most of the enumerators trained for the earlier attempt may have moved on or retired, a fresh round of training will be needed. This retraining process could take another two months. Officials also stress the need for a pilot study, as was done before the 2021 exercise, to ensure the updated digital tools work smoothly and without glitches.

One former officer noted: “This time, 80% of the effort will go into preparation. The actual data collection will be faster thanks to digital systems. What earlier took years to tabulate can now be done in months.”

Ground-level and political challenges

Enumerators on the ground will likely face hurdles, especially in adapting to the updated software. But these are manageable with adequate training. The bigger concern is the social and political environment in which the census will be conducted.

In an era of viral misinformation, especially on platforms like WhatsApp, enumerators could face public suspicion or even hostility. A widely circulated rumour branding them as frauds could derail data collection in entire localities. Officials emphasise the need for strong public awareness campaigns to counter such threats.

Beyond logistical issues, the real political test may come after the data is released. Reservation policies have long been based on outdated estimates, with the last all-India caste data dating back to 1931. Once accurate data on OBCs is available, pressure is likely to build for reservation quotas to be recalibrated — or even expanded.

This could reopen debates about the 51% cap on total reservations, set by the Supreme Court in the landmark Indra Sawhney judgment of 1992. If the data shows that OBCs form a majority of India’s population, demands for proportionate quotas are likely to gain traction.

India’s proposed caste census could dramatically reshape how social justice policies are framed and implemented. But it also risks becoming a political flashpoint — both before and after the data is collected.