Why Stalin, Naidu calling for more children in southern India

The remarks made by Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu urging citizens to have more children, alongside Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin’s provocative suggestion of "Why not 16 children?" have intensified discussions regarding demographic balance in southern India where declining fertility rates are raising alarms.

Naidu's advocacy for increasing birth rates is not a recent development; however, his proposal to legislate that individuals must have more than two children to qualify for panchayat or municipal elections indicates a commitment to action beyond rhetoric.

For several years, the president of the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) has been promoting a rise in population rates to align with the national average. In this context, Stalin's recent comments, which closely follow Naidu's statements, seem to have further ignited the conversation.

On Monday, Stalin suggested that newly married couples might consider having 16 children, contrasting this with the tradition in Tamil society of blessing someone with a phrase that roughly translates to "may you have 16 children as 16 forms of wealth!"

Stalin clarifies

“That blessing does not mean you should have 16 children… but now a situation has arisen where people think they may have to, literally, raise 16 children and not a small family,” the chief minister of Tamil Nadu said while speaking at an event where 31 couples participated in a state government-sponsored marriage initiative.

His proposal followed Naidu's announcement regarding forthcoming legislation that would permit only individuals with more than two children to run for local body elections.

Naidu echoes Stalin's sentiment

"At one point, individuals with more than two children were prohibited from running in panchayat or municipal elections. However, I am introducing a new law that allows those with more than two children to contest these elections and receive additional benefits for their families," the chief minister of Andhra Pradesh stated during a gathering in Amaravati.

The TDP-led NDA government revoked the previous legislation in August, which restricted candidates with more than two children from participating in local body elections.

"Previously, I encouraged family planning, but I am now urging people to consider having more children, Naidu remarked, emphasizing the importance of maintaining demographic balance," Naidu said.

Do data support the contention?

They do. Expressing concern over his state's fertility rate, which has fallen to between 1.5 and 1.7, Naidu pressed for an increase to 2.1%, aligning it with the national average.

The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) represents the average number of children a woman aged 15-49 would have if she experienced the current fertility rates throughout her reproductive years.

Naidu stressed that population should be regarded as an asset rather than a liability.

"The population in northern India is on the rise, while it is declining in southern India. This is a crucial point to consider," he noted at a public meeting in August.

"If we do not adopt a forward-thinking approach, our population will continue to decrease, leading to a growing elderly demographic. If children are not born, who will care for the elderly?" he questioned.

The Andhra Pradesh chief minister cautioned that a demographic crisis could lead the state to face challenges similar to those experienced by Europe, China and Japan, which are grappling with ageing populations.

Entire South facing skewed population growth problem

Andhra Pradesh is not alone in facing demographic challenges. The average Total Fertility Rate (TFR) across five southern states — Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu — stands at 1.73, which is below the national average of 2.1.

In contrast, the average TFR for five populous Hindi heartland states — Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, and Jharkhand — reaches 2.4.

Officials indicate that the average male reproductive age in Andhra Pradesh is currently 32.5 years, projected to rise to 40 by 2047. Similarly, the average female reproductive age is now 29 years, expected to increase to 38 by the same year. This trend suggests a significant decline in the number of individuals available to drive economic growth.

At present, 11% of Andhra Pradesh’s population is over the age of 60, a figure anticipated to rise to 19% by 2047.

While Naidu, a prominent ally of the BJP-led NDA government, has expressed concerns from a demographic standpoint, leaders like Stalin and other regional politicians have pointed out that southern states may suffer in the upcoming delimitation of Lok Sabha constituencies due to their declining populations.

A review of parliamentary constituencies based on population is scheduled for 2026, which will expand the number of Lok Sabha seats from 543 to 753. Regional parties in the South are apprehensive that this will lead to a significant increase in seats for states with larger populations, while the South will see only a minimal rise.

These party leaders argue that southern states are in a way being penalised for their successful family planning initiatives over the years, as states with higher population densities will gain greater representation in the Lok Sabha.

BRS worried too

KT Rama Rao, the working president of the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS), issued a warning several months ago regarding a potential uprising in the southern states if the representation of southern Indians in Parliament were to diminish due to the proposed delimitation based on population figures.

He emphasised that the southern states should not be 'punished' for successfully managing population growth, as advised by the Government of India for the nation's benefit. He asserted that citizens across South India, regardless of political affiliation, would express their concerns on this matter.

Rama Rao's comments were in response to remarks made by AIMIM leader and Hyderabad MP Asaduddin Owaisi, who suggested that southern India was on the brink of unrest over the delimitation issue.

“If you believe you can silence our voices and diminish our representation in Parliament through this delimitation process, based on population metrics, I assure you that a southern uprising will occur, as this is both unfair and unjust. It was the Government of India that encouraged population control among Indians,” KTR stated during a press conference.

He also highlighted the projected distribution of parliamentary seats post-delimitation, noting, “It would be particularly egregious if Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, after delimitation, end up with more MPs combined than all of southern India.”

“States that have effectively managed population growth, following the Government of India's guidance, should not face penalties. It is crucial that wisdom prevails. We take pride in being Indians, and the South significantly contributes to the nation's economy, with 19% of the population generating nearly 35% of India’s GDP,” Rama Rao concluded.