Bangladesh crisis places India in a quandary

New Delhi, 6 August: The sudden events leading to Sheikh Hasina's removal as Prime Minister of Bangladesh have placed India in a highly complex situation. Last night, Prime Minister Narendra Modi convened a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security to deliberate on the situation in Bangladesh, which has significant strategic implications for New Delhi. The Indian government has yet to publicly announce its strategy for handling this regional crisis, though External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar is expected to brief MPs during an upcoming all-party meeting.

After fleeing a chaotic Dhaka, Hasina arrived at the Hindon airbase in Delhi and is expected to travel to the UK today to seek political asylum. However, there is no confirmation yet on whether the UK will grant her asylum, leaving her next steps uncertain if the UK does not approve her request.

UK not certain

In its response to the crisis in Bangladesh, the UK has called for a UN-led investigation but has not addressed the issue of asylum. This raises the question of whether Hasina will remain in India or seek refuge elsewhere.

What should India do?

India now faces a diplomatic quandary, as it is reluctant to be seen as overtly supporting the ousted leader, which could complicate its relationship with the new government in Bangladesh.

Equally significant is Sheikh Hasina's longstanding relationship with India. Before she became Prime Minister, the Indira Gandhi government had provided her refuge after her entire family, including her father Mujibur Rahman, was assassinated during the 1975 unrest in Bangladesh. Given her close ties with Delhi, abandoning her now would be a difficult decision for India.

During Sheikh Hasina's tenure, India found a reliable ally in Dhaka, and her continuous leadership since 2009 significantly strengthened ties between India and Bangladesh. This period saw enhanced cooperation in areas such as road and rail connectivity, border management, and defence.

When protests against Hasina intensified in Bangladesh, India initially responded by stating that it was an "internal matter." Now, with the 76-year-old leader ousted, India must work to establish ties with the new government in Dhaka. On 5 August, Bangladesh Army Chief Waker-uz-Zaman announced that an interim government would be formed to manage the country's affairs.

How Bangladesh will shape up now

It remains uncertain what role the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Jamaat-e-Islami, both of which supported the protests, will play in the new government. Both parties are known to be unfriendly towards India. During the tenure of BNP leader Khaleda Zia, New Delhi-Dhaka relations were strained. Khaleda Zia, who was recently released from prison following Hasina's ouster, has previously campaigned on an anti-India platform, accusing New Delhi of interfering in Bangladesh's internal affairs.

The Jamaat-e-Islami, meanwhile, has strong ties with Pakistan, and India will closely monitor the evolving situation in Dhaka.

Potential refugee crisis

A major concern for India, amid reports of violence against minorities in Bangladesh, is the potential for a large-scale influx of refugees fleeing persecution. The India-Bangladesh border spans 4,096 km and is highly porous. The issue of Bangladeshi refugees has long been a sensitive topic in India, particularly in the Northeast and West Bengal.

Following the recent developments in Bangladesh, the Border Security Force (BSF) has issued a high alert along the international border. Pradyot Kishore Manikya Debbarma, leader of Tripura's Tipra Motha, has stated that he spoke with Union Home Minister Amit Shah, who assured him that no infiltration would be allowed.

India now faces the challenge of addressing the geopolitical implications of the crisis in Dhaka. With the Awami League losing control in Bangladesh, India is closely watching to see who takes over. The BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami are perceived to be more aligned with China, and Beijing is likely to exploit the situation to its advantage. This development poses a serious challenge to India's strategic interests in the region.

In recent years, India's neighbourhood has seen increasing instability, with crises in Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Afghanistan, and now Bangladesh. China and Pakistan have formed a bloc, and some new governments, such as in the Maldives, have signalled closer alignment with this bloc than with New Delhi. The Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan ended India's strong ties with the previous government. Amid these challenges, India's strengthened diplomatic relations with Dhaka had been a positive development, but this changed with yesterday's events, forcing India to reassess its approach to this new crisis.