BJP alone scores double the tally of MVA in Maharashtra

The Mahayuti is poised for a significant victory in the Maharashtra elections, with current trends indicating that the BJP's count is already double that of the Mahayuti -- something a party spokesperson on X Space by The Squirrels last evening, Suresh Nakhua, was confident of.

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While the Mahayuti is leading in more than 200 seats, the BJP, which nominated 149 candidates, is ahead in 125 of those. In contrast, the opposition coalition, Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), is only leading in 60 seats, marking a considerable setback after their impressive performance in the Lok Sabha elections.

In the 2014 assembly elections, the BJP contested 260 seats and secured 122 victories. In 2019, in partnership with the undivided Shiv Sena, the party contested 152 seats and won 105.

Following a disappointing Lok Sabha performance, this outcome represents a remarkable recovery for the Mahayuti, particularly for the BJP. The party's representation in the Lok Sabha fell from 23 seats in 2019 to just nine in Maharashtra. The Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena captured seven seats, while Ajit Pawar's NCP managed to secure only one. Conversely, the MVA won 30 out of 48 seats in the state.

How important Maharashtra was for BJP

For the BJP, maintaining its hold on Maharashtra would reinforce its influence ahead of crucial elections in Delhi and Bihar next year.

The saffron party's resurgence can be attributed to a strong performance in the Vidarbha region, where it contested the highest number of seats (47), an area with a significant population of both large- and small-scale farmers.

What accounts for the BJP's robust performance? Analysis reveals that the BJP is leading in 19 of the 21 seats it contested where it was previously seen as vulnerable. In contrast, the Congress is only leading in six out of the 18 seats it was expected to win.

Most visible were the RSS footsoldiers in this campaign. The settling of differences between the ideological parent and its political offspring after a brief estrangement turned the tables around for the Mahayuti.

In response to the Lok Sabha setback, the BJP-led Mahayuti concentrated on its core OBC voter base, which had become disenchanted during the general elections. It appears that the ruling coalition successfully consolidated OBC support amidst uncertainty regarding Maratha voters, who have expressed dissatisfaction with the BJP over reservation policies.

Additionally, the BJP employed the slogans 'batenge toh katenge' and 'ek hain to safe hain' to strengthen its appeal among non-Muslim voters. Furthermore, it appears that women voters largely supported the Mahayuti, which significantly relied on the Mukhyamantri Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana. This initiative provides financial aid of Rs 1,500 per month to more than 2.4 crore women.