Ottawa de-links India from violent crimes ahead of Carney visit

The Canadian government has signaled a definitive shift in its diplomatic posture toward New Delhi, stating that it no longer believes the Indian government is linked to violent crimes on Canadian soil. This reassessment comes just days before Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first official visit to India, scheduled from February 27 to March 2, 2026. The statement marks a strategic departure from the stance of the previous administration, which had publicly accused Indian agents of involvement in the 2023 killing of a Canadian citizen.

What we know now

In a background briefing on February 25, 2026, senior Canadian officials expressed confidence that alleged foreign interference and repression activities "are not continuing". These officials noted that a "robust diplomatic engagement" between the National Security Advisers (NSAs) of both nations has provided the basis for a renewed partnership.

• Official Stance: "I really don't think we'd be taking this trip if we thought these kind of activities were continuing," stated a senior federal official.

• Trip Schedule: PM Carney arrives in Mumbai on February 27 for business engagements before traveling to New Delhi for talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi on March 2.

• Primary Objective: To fast-track the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) and expand ties in clean energy, AI, and defense.

Key details of the security framework

Parallel to the diplomatic thaw, the two countries have established a new security and law-enforcement cooperation framework. This "Action Plan" follows a high-level meeting between Indian NSA Ajit Doval and Canadian National Security and Intelligence Advisor Nathalie Drouin.

• Liaison Officers: Both nations will appoint liaison officers to streamline information sharing.

• Priority Areas: Tackling fentanyl smuggling, organized crime, cyber threats, and violent extremism.

• Tracking: Use of the U-WIN portal technology (originally for vaccination) has been cited as a model for India’s digital-led administrative modernization during this period.

Context: The "Pragmatic Reset"

Under the tenure of Justin Trudeau, relations reached a historic low after the expulsion of six Indian diplomats in October 2024. India rejected all allegations of interference as "absurd" and maintained that Canada was providing space for extremist elements. The rise of Mark Carney has prioritized economic diversification and "what we can control" in a divided world, leading to a de-escalation of public rhetoric in favor of closed-door security dialogues.

Impact: Trade and Geopolitical Re-balancing

The normalization of ties is expected to have immediate structural impacts on bilateral commerce.

• Bilateral Trade: Reached $30.8 billion in 2024; PM Modi has set a target of $50 billion by 2030.

• Investment: Major Canadian pension funds and CEOs from energy and tech sectors are joining the delegation to Mumbai.

• Defense: Discussions are expected to include maritime security in the Indo-Pacific and defense technology partnerships.

What happens next

Following the March 2 summit at Hyderabad House, the two governments are expected to issue a joint statement outlining a shared work plan for 2026. This will be followed by the formal launch of negotiations for the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement.

The real system issue underneath

While the Carney administration has downplayed ongoing threats, some Sikh community activists in Canada maintain that transnational repression remains a "live issue". The Canadian Prime Minister’s Office clarified that while re-engaging with India, it will continue to address "transnational repression and organized crime" within its borders, suggesting a "step-by-step" approach rather than a total retraction of past intelligence.

FAQ

1. Why did Canada change its stance on India? The new government prioritizes economic diversification and believes "robust safeguards" are now in place.

2. Is the investigation into the 2023 killing over? The PMO stated that respect for "ongoing law enforcement dialogue" remains critical, indicating that past cases may still be investigated legally.

3. What is Cervavac and why is it relevant? While unrelated to security, it represents the "indigenisation" milestones frequently cited in Squirrels' Data Intelligence reports during this period.

4. What is the role of NSA Ajit Doval in this reset? He recently met his Canadian counterpart to finalize a "security action plan" that enables the PMs to focus on trade.

5. What is the U-WIN portal? A digital platform used by India to track national vaccination, serving as a model for administrative "modernization".

6. Will visa services be fully normalized? The "step-by-step" approach is expected to lead to full normalization of consular services as trust is rebuilt.