Congress suddenly confident: How come?

People must have noticed the newfound aggression in Rahul Gandhi and the leadership of the Indian National Congress (INC or Congress). Is it just to do with their latest attack on tycoons Mukesh Ambani and Gautam Adani and the entire discourse on autos filled with cash being transported in the dead of the night? 

It appears that the grand old party, which perhaps was fighting its most under-confident, underwhelming election so far, is getting reports from the ground in certain key states that have ended up pleasantly surprising itself.

First, a study of the number of seats the Congress contested in the last three general elections.

Track record of Congress

·      In 2019, it contested for 421 seats and won 52

·      In 2014, it fought on 464 seats and returned with 44, its worst-ever performance

·      In 2009, it was In the fray on 440 seats and it got 206

·      In 2024, it’s contesting on least ever seats, 328

So, how is it finding greater confidence?

The Lok Sabha election of 2024 began with only one theme: Was the INC good enough to get into three figures? Could it improve its tally of 2019?

It fancies its chances the most in Karnataka. In 2019, the BJP had 25 seats here, with overall votes polled in its favour at 51.7%. the INC had got only 1 seat with 32.1% of the votes polled.

With the Prajwal Revanna issue reverberating, the Congress leadership is looking at a minimum of 10 Lok Sabha seats here. More like 2014, where the BJP was at 17 seats and the INC was at 9.

Uttar Pradesh, where the election became bipolar in 2019 with an alliance between SP and BSP, is the other key state which is being looked at seriously by the INC.

In 2019, the oldest party contested 67 of the state’s 80 seats. It won only one seat — Raebareli.

In 2024, the party is contesting 17 seats in UP including Amethi and Raebareli, as part of the seat-sharing formula with Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party. Rahul Gandhi’s party hopes to be a beneficiary in at least 4 seats including Raibareli where the party mascot is contesting.

It can look for inspiration to 2009 when it scored 21 Lok Sabha seats.

In Maharashtra, which Gandhi now describes as his home, the chaos unfolding is of another level. In a multi-cornered fight, the INC is contesting 17 seats, leaving 21 for the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena and 10 for the Sharad Pawar faction of NCP. It hopes to pick up 5 seats here. 

In West Bengal, the party has fielded candidates in just 14 of the 42 seats. In 2019, the Congress contested 40 seats and won just two. It is hoping to hold onto at least 1.

It has conceded six seats to its alliance partner, Aam Aadmi Party, in Delhi, Haryana and Gujarat.

·      Out of 26 seats in Gujarat, the INC scored 0 in the two previous elections

·      Out of 10 seats in Haryana, the Congress got nothing in 2019 and 1 seat in 2014

·      Out of 7 seats in Delhi, the INC has scored 0 in the last two Lok Sabha polls.

It hopes to pick up 10 seats on its own across this bunch of 43 seats.

Then the cluster of other southern states like Kerala, Telangana, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh.

·      In Kerala, it had 15 seats in 2019 and 8 in 2014

·      In Telangana, it had three in 2019 and two in 2014. But now it’s contesting with its own state government! It hopes to substantially enhance its performance here.

·      In Tamil Nadu, in an alliance with the DMK, it had 8 in 2019.

·      In Andhra Pradesh, the Congress didn’t get anything with all gains going to Jagan and Chandrababu Naidu. In 2024, it hopes Sharmila, Jagan’s sister will ring in some yields. So, the INC is contesting in 23 seats here.

So, what’s the game now? While it may prima facie look like a fight against the BJP, sources say it is actually quite appreciative of the rival, seeing that the saffron party had already peaked in several states and, therefore, cannot cross those ‘saturation’ points. Take a look at the following table showing the state-wise division of victories between the BJP-led NDA and the Congress-led alliance in 2019.

But that also means the Congress is gambling with the rival’s potential — a game of probabilities — rather than having a sound strategy of its own. At the same time, the INC’s deals with other INDI Alliance constituents suggest it wants to be in a better bargaining position when the results are out.