Op Sindoor: IAF Superiority Forced Pak Ceasefire call, inflicted greater damage, says Swiss think tank

A comprehensive independent analysis by the Switzerland-based Centre d’Histoire et de Prospective Militaires (CHPM) has described India's Operation Sindoor as a landmark high-intensity air conflict between two nuclear-armed states, with India achieving clear operational and escalation dominance.

The 47-page report, titled "Operation Sindoor: The India-Pakistan Air War (7–10 May 2025)", authored by military historian Adrien Fontanellaz and published in mid-January 2026, provides one of the most detailed neutral reconstructions of the 88-hour aerial confrontation. CHPM, an independent institution founded in 1969 in Pully, Switzerland, specializes in military history and strategic studies.

Operation Sindoor was launched by the Indian Air Force (IAF) in early May 2025 in response to a deadly terrorist attack on April 22, 2025, in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir. The attack killed 25 Indian tourists and one Nepali national, which New Delhi attributed to Pakistan-based groups like Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba.

The operation involved precision airstrikes on terrorist infrastructure inside Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), followed by escalation into direct air engagements.

Key Findings

Indian Air Superiority and Escalation Control

The report concludes that by the later stages of the conflict, the IAF had established air superiority over significant portions of Pakistani airspace. This allowed Indian forces to conduct long-range strikes with relative freedom, while severely restricting the Pakistan Air Force's (PAF) ability to mount effective counter-operations.

Coercion into Ceasefire

A series of Indian airstrikes on Pakistani air force bases, air defence sites, runways, hardened aircraft shelters, radar installations, and command facilities reportedly degraded Pakistan's capabilities to the point where Islamabad was compelled to seek a ceasefire on May 10, 2025. The report highlights that India dictated the tempo and limits of escalation, protecting its own critical assets while imposing durable operational constraints on Pakistan.

Degradation of Pakistani Air Defences

Indian strikes, including the use of Israeli-origin Harop and Harpy loitering munitions, targeted surveillance radars and surface-to-air missile batteries. Eight air defense sites were hit on May 8, with four more the following day. This drastically reduced Pakistani airspace awareness, as surviving radars went silent to avoid detection, further enabling Indian operations.

Network-Centric Warfare Milestone

CHPM characterizes Operation Sindoor as the first high-intensity, network-centric air conflict between nuclear powers. It praises India's integration of advanced systems like the Russian-origin S-400 air defence, data fusion from IACCCS and Akashteer networks, and effective counter-drone measures using anti-aircraft guns, jamming, and spoofing.

Losses and Overclaiming

Both sides exaggerated aircraft losses—a common feature in modern air warfare due to long-range engagements and limited battle-damage assessment. After adjustments, the report finds Indian operations inflicted greater and more lasting damage.

Broader Implications

The report views Operation Sindoor as a turning point in India's strategic doctrine, demonstrating credible deep-strike capabilities without crossing nuclear thresholds. It underscores how political leadership granted the military flexibility to deliver a "sufficiently spectacular" response for deterrence, while tightly managing escalation risks.

Pakistan's initial attempts to target Indian assets, including drone operations and efforts against S-400 systems, were largely unsuccessful, according to the analysis.

The full report is available on the CHPM website and has drawn attention in Indian defencecircles for its independent validation of IAF performance. No official responses from Pakistani authorities to the CHPM findings have been widely reported as of this date.

This conflict remains a subject of intense debate, with both nations maintaining differing narratives on losses and outcomes. The CHPM study stands out as one of the most thorough third-party assessments to date.