Daring the Vatican to elect a woman of colour as next pope

While speculations are rife over the next pope since Pope Francis died on 21 April, why, invariably, a white man was elected on all occasions earlier, putting an end to such rumours, is a question that must be asked in this age that fashions itself as “progressive”. The papacy, spanning nearly 2,000 years, has seen 266 popes, with a significant majority from Europe. According to historical records, 217 popes were from Italy, 16 from France, 6 from Germany and smaller numbers from other European regions, such as 5 from modern-day Syria and 4 from Greece. This is largely because the Vatican is in Rome and historically, Catholicism, the original form of the Christian religion, was centred there.

Racism in the name of history and tradition

No doctrinal barriers are preventing a pope from Africa, Asia or Latin America, as any baptised Catholic man can theoretically be elected. Pope Francis has appointed more cardinals from these regions, such as Cardinal Wilfrid Napier from South Africa and Cardinal Andrew Yeom Soo-jung from South Korea, making it possible.

However, the College of Cardinals, which elects the pope, still has a significant European presence and tradition might influence their choice.

Exclusion of women

Women cannot become pope because Catholic doctrine requires the pope to be a male bishop and only men can be ordained as priests. This is based on tradition and the belief that Jesus chose only men as apostles, a stance reaffirmed by Pope Francis.

That said, given the Church's global reach, with over 40% of Catholics in the Americas and significant numbers in Africa and Asia, there is a case for a more diverse pope. However, the balance between tradition and modernity remains a point of debate.

Papal demographics and election rules

Until Pope Francis, elected in 2013, all popes were of European descent, reinforcing the perception of the papacy as a white, European institution. Pope Francis, born Jorge Mario Bergoglio in Buenos Aires to Italian immigrants, was the first pope from the Americas and the first non-European in over 1,200 years, marking a significant departure.

The ethnicity of popes is closely tied to their country of origin, with most being white due to the European context. However, the inclusion of popes from regions like Syria (e.g., Pope Anicetus) indicates early diversity, though these were exceptions rather than the norm. An informal discussion on Reddit highlights the complexity, noting Pope Francis’s Argentine birth but Italian heritage, illustrating the multicultural nature of modern identities.

Rules and eligibility for papal election

The process of electing a pope is governed by the papal conclave, where cardinals under 80 years old vote to select a successor. The rules, outlined in documents like Universi Dominici Gregis and recent amendments by Pope Benedict XVI, require a two-thirds majority for election, with provisions for a simple majority after extended voting.

Theoretically, any baptised Catholic male can be elected, but since 1389, the pope has always been chosen from among the cardinals, limiting the pool to ordained bishops. This eligibility criterion excludes women, as the Catholic Church does not ordain women as priests or bishops, a position rooted in tradition and doctrine. Pope Francis and predecessors have reaffirmed this, citing Jesus’s choice of male apostles as precedent.

For men from Africa, Asia or Latin America, there are no explicit doctrinal barriers, but their representation in the College of Cardinals historically has been lower, influencing election outcomes.

Current composition of the College of Cardinals

Pope Francis did diversify the College of Cardinals, appointing more from Africa, Asia and Latin America, reflecting the Church’s global growth. Recent appointments include cardinals like Archbishop Stephen Ameyu Martin from South Sudan, Archbishop Stephen Brislin from South Africa and Archbishop Protase Rugambwa from Tanzania, among others. Cardinals come from 94 countries across 7 continents, with increasing representation from developing regions.

For instance, in 2015, Pope Francis named 20 new cardinals, with a majority from Africa, Asia and Latin America, including Bishop Soane Patita Paini Mafi from Tonga, the first cardinal from the Polynesian archipelago.

This shift is evident in the breakdown of cardinal electors, with Europe still holding a significant share but declining relative to other regions, as shown in the following table:

According to Pew Research Center, as of September 2023, under Pope Francis, the College of Cardinals has become less European, with 38% from Europe, 20% from Latin America and the Caribbean, 19% from the Asia-Pacific region, 13% from sub-Saharan Africa, 7% from North America and 2% from the Middle East-North Africa region, with Francis-appointed cardinals making up 72% of the 136 voting members.

Barriers to non-European and women popes

While there are no doctrinal barriers to a pope from Africa, Asia or Latin America, cultural and traditional factors may influence the conclave. Historically, the papacy has been seen as a European institution and the College of Cardinals, despite diversification, still includes a strong European contingent. This could lead to a preference for European candidates, though Pope Francis’s election shows this is not absolute.

For women, the barrier is doctrinal and absolute. As articulated by Pope Francis in interviews, the Church's teaching is that the “Petrine principle” of ministry is reserved for men and women’s roles, while valued, do not include ordination. This is supported by historical precedent, with no female popes in Church history and movements for women’s ordination, such as the Women’s Ordination Conference, remaining marginal.

Global representation and prospects

The Catholic Church’s global spread, with over 1.3 billion followers, underscores the argument for a more diverse papacy. Statistics show 49% of Catholics are in the Americas, 15% in Africa, 11% in Asia and 24% in Europe, highlighting the need for representation from non-European regions. Pope Francis’s appointments suggest a move toward this, but the balance between tradition and modernity remains contentious. Some argue that a non-European pope would better reflect the Church’s global mission, while others see the papacy as inherently tied to its European heritage.

Given recent trends, the possibility of a non-European pope is real, but the exclusion of women is firmly entrenched in doctrine, with no immediate prospect for change. As the conclave following Pope Francis’s death approaches, the world watches to see if the Church will continue its path toward inclusivity or revert to tradition.

The historical exclusivity of the papacy to white, European men is rooted in geography and tradition, but recent changes under Pope Francis suggest a non-European pope is possible. Women, however, remain excluded due to Church doctrine. The future of the papacy will depend on how the College of Cardinals balances these factors in the wake of Pope Francis’s passing.