A pre-poll survey shows a strong trend that favours the Aam Aadmi Party. But what is swinging the Dalit voter? Veteran IAS Vijay Shankar Pandey, who used to be a key Mayawati aide, explains the data to Bhupendra Chaubey in the video above.
The assessment of votes of the Scheduled Castes retreating from the AAP is shared by multiple political observers. Former Member of Parliament and Congress leader Udit Raj appealed last Sunday to the Dalit community in Delhi, urging them not to support the AAP. He accused former Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal of holding anti-Dalit and anti-poor sentiments.
Raj claimed that although AAP has introduced a programme to offer a monthly stipend to temple priests and gurdwara granthis, it has neglected the priests of Valmiki and Ravidas temples.
Dalits among Dalits
As per the 2011 Census, scheduled castes constitute 16% of the population in Delhi. Among these, Jatavs represent 38% and Valmikis account for 22%, making them the two predominant sub-castes. In the assembly elections held in 2015 and 2020, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) successfully secured all 12 reserved seats in Delhi.
Kejriwal's party garnered a notably higher vote share from various segments of the Dalit community compared to its competitors, with the Valmikis, many of whom are engaged in sanitation work and manual scavenging, providing substantial support in 2015.
What happened to Mayawati and BSP?
But whatever happened to Mayawati? Are Dalits not even considering her Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)? Why is her party not contesting with intent in the Delhi election?
The BSP has consistently presented a complex puzzle for political analysts. Despite numerous forecasts predicting its imminent decline, the party has demonstrated resilience, emerging with renewed strength during periods of crisis.
Nevertheless, the BSP's aspiration to evolve into a pan-India party appears to have reached an impasse. Its prospects of regaining significance in Uttar Pradesh seem dim, particularly following the party's disappointing performance in the 2022 Assembly elections. If the BSP struggles to maintain relevance in its stronghold of Uttar Pradesh, it raises questions about why the electorate in Delhi, including the Dalit community, would regard Mayawati with any seriousness.
The BSP commenced its electoral journey in the 1980s, successfully increasing its vote share in Uttar Pradesh through favourable social dynamics and heightened competition. In its early years, up until the 1993 Assembly elections, the BSP's support was primarily confined to its Dalit voter base, remaining below double-digit percentages.
In the 1993 elections, the party allied with the Samajwadi Party, securing 67 seats. This collaboration enabled SP leader Mulayam Singh Yadav to assume the role of chief minister with the backing of the BSP and other parties. Under the leadership of Kanshi Ram and Mayawati, efforts were made to broaden the party's social base by cultivating leadership among the Other Backward Classes (OBCs). This strategy facilitated the BSP's appeal to the most backward classes (MBCs), who were discontented with the dominance of upper OBCs such as the Yadavs and Lodhs.
Failed social engineering
The decline of the Bharatiya Janata Party in Uttar Pradesh from 1999 to 2014 coincided with the BSP's emergence as the principal alternative to the Samajwadi Party. Following the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, Mayawati executed a strategic shift in her party's messaging, transitioning from “bahujan hitaay, bahujan sukhaay” to “sarvajan hitaay, sarvajan sukhaay.”
The initiative to unite Dalits, MBCs, and upper castes enabled the BSP to achieve an independent majority. In the 2007 state elections, the party's vote share in Uttar Pradesh surpassed the 25% mark. Observers have noted that BSP candidates during the 2000s were nearly guaranteed to mobilize the party's Dalit constituency.
However, in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the party experienced a significant decline in its vote share, falling below 20%, primarily due to a segment of Dalit voters shifting their support to the BJP. Although the BSP garnered 22.2% of the votes in the 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, the party's position was precarious. The unexpected strategy of forming an alliance with the SP for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh did not yield substantial electoral success. Despite this coalition, the BJP continued to dominate the political landscape in the state.
In the 2007 and 2012 Assembly elections, the BSP captured nearly half of the non-Jatav Dalit votes. This figure declined to less than one-third (30%) in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, resulting in the party failing to secure any seats.
Post-2014
The BSP was unable to halt the decline in support from Dalit voters, resulting in a significant loss of ground to the BJP within this demographic. Additionally, the party gradually alienated various other groups that had been meticulously nurtured by Kanshi Ram. In previous elections, substantial numbers of backward castes, including Kurmis, Koeris, Rajbhars, Nishads, and certain lower castes among Muslims, had supported the BSP. However, since the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the party's performance among these voters has been disappointing.
Following the 2017 Assembly elections, the party became increasingly vulnerable. Before this, it had garnered over 20% of the votes in the state during both the 2014 Lok Sabha and 2017 Assembly elections. Although the BSP secured 19% of the votes and won 10 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, it became evident that the party's capacity to transfer votes to its allies had diminished. The BSP relied heavily on the support base of the SP, which led SP chief Akhilesh Yadav to reject any attempts to include the BSP in the Opposition alliance in Uttar Pradesh.
This decline is reflected in the party's competitiveness. For example, in 2007, the BSP either won or was the runner-up in 310 seats, a figure that slightly decreased to 289 seats in 2012. However, the situation deteriorated significantly in the 2017 elections, where the party managed to win only 19 seats and finished second in just 119. An analysis of the vote swings at the constituency level between the 2012 and 2017 Assembly elections highlights the extent of the BSP's electoral defeat, with the party's vote share declining in 295 constituencies compared to 2012, while it increased in only 108 constituencies.
In 163 constituencies, the party experienced a negative vote swing exceeding five percentage points. The 2022 Assembly elections in the state highlighted a decline in support for the party, even among its traditional Dalit base. It secured only one seat, finishing second in 18 others, and garnered a mere 12.8% of the total votes cast. The party failed to retain its deposit, receiving less than one-sixth of the total votes in 290 constituencies, indicating that in nearly three out of four seats, it no longer maintained a significant voter presence.
Post-election survey results reveal that fewer than half of the Dalit voters in the state supported the party. Approximately 25% of Jatav Dalits and nearly 50% of non-Jatav Dalits opted for the BJP instead. The party's poor performance suggests that it must significantly increase its vote share to become a viable contender for power in the state.
What accounts for the decline?
In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and its leader Mayawati aspired to secure a prominent position in Delhi after achieving a majority in Uttar Pradesh in 2007. However, this opportunity rapidly diminished. Data from surveys conducted by Lokniti highlights the waning popularity of Mayawati. Her previous approach to political campaigning, which primarily revolved around a strong narrative of caste identity, has lost its appeal among the Dalit electorate for two main reasons.
Firstly, a new social demographic has emerged among Dalits in recent years, characterized by upward mobility and aspirations. This group resonates more with the political style of Narendra Modi, who, while expressing pride in his backward caste identity, emphasizes economic development. Secondly, Mayawati's reputation as an effective administrator and transformative leader has been compromised by corruption allegations, centralization of power, and a weakening of the BSP’s ideological foundation. Additionally, she has not made significant efforts to revitalize her organizational structure, promote a new generation of leadership, or articulate a compelling political message.
While it is accurate to state that Mayawati’s leadership facilitated the party's expansion, the BSP envisioned and established by Kanshi Ram effectively came to an end in this transition. The party evolved from a social movement into a conventional electoral machine. The leadership took advantage of this shift, welcoming politicians willing to provide financial support to run as its candidates.
Gradually, the BSP shifted from being a movement-oriented party to a collection of individual politicians who defected from other parties for pragmatic reasons. The dynamics between the party, its members, and the electorate became increasingly transactional. Ultimately, the party, which was once centred around its leader, became dominated by a single family.
Mayawati's indiscretion
Mayawati designated her nephew, Akash Anand, as her successor last year, and he has since emerged as the most prominent figure in the party's campaign efforts. Nevertheless, Anand must still demonstrate his political capabilities in practice. Most of the senior leaders of the BSP, many of whom have either departed from the party or been dismissed, including Mayawati herself, have largely remained on the periphery of the 2024 election campaign in Uttar Pradesh.
There are discussions among both supporters and critics of Mayawati regarding the significant pressure she is under, stemming from concerns about potential actions by the Enforcement Directorate and other central government agencies investigating allegations of corruption. This situation appears to have affected her willingness to actively participate in the political arena and to make a concerted effort to join the Opposition INDIA bloc. Some observers have even posited that the BSP is strategically fielding candidates who may undermine the INDIA bloc's chances in various constituencies across Uttar Pradesh.
Does Mayawati's campaign in Western Uttar Pradesh provide any prospects for the BSP? The party has become increasingly marginalized within the state's evolving bipolar political landscape, and it is anticipated that the BSP may experience a reduced vote share in the upcoming 2024 elections.