India-Pakistan war to avenge Pahalgam terrorist attack?

On April 22, a group of five terrorists launched an attack on men among tourists in Pahalgam of Jammu and Kashmir, killing 26 mostly-Hindu men and injuring over 20 others. The Resistance Front (TRF), a faction of the Pakistan-based terrorist organisation Lashkar e Taiba, initially took responsibility for the attack, asserting that it was a response to Indian government policies that permitted Indian citizens to reside and work in Kashmir, leading to an influx of non-local settlers in what they believe ought to be an exclusively Muslim area. Four days later, they retracted their statement.

Soon after, Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed the world in English from an unlikely stage of Madhubani in Bihar, saying he will not only chase the terrorists responsible for the heinous attack but also hunt down their backers, implying implicitly the Pakistan Army and Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). The next day, every media house reported that INS Vikrant was being moved from the dock.

Across the subcontinent since then, television channels and social media platforms have been abuzz with alarming rhetoric about a possible military conflict between India and Pakistan. Indian news networks have broadcast speculative discussions about “surgical strikes” and “full-spectrum readiness”, while their Pakistani counterparts have responded with equally bellicose coverage, warning of “decisive retaliation” and “existential threats”.

Amidst this media frenzy, the Government of India advised journalists to avoid spreading unverified or inflammatory news. Nevertheless, some outlets continue with speculative narratives. India Today notably reported that the families of several top Pakistani generals, including Chief of Army Staff General Asim Munir, had moved to Europe, fearing an imminent Indian attack. The use of the plural — “generals” — suggests a broader evacuation among Pakistan’s top military brass. While some Indian television channels echoed this claim, no other Indian print media house, recognised Pakistani outlet or independent international news agency has confirmed it so far.

Nuclear threats and historical amnesia

The speculations include allegations that some Pakistani leaders issued veiled nuclear threats against India, although there are no confirmed public statements to this effect. Even if true, such threats mirror a dangerous history in South Asia where nuclear deterrence has not prevented limited wars.

In May–July 1999, India and Pakistan fought the Kargil War, resulting in the deaths of over 1,000 soldiers, despite both countries having publicly declared themselves nuclear-armed states the previous year. According to official figures, India lost 527 soldiers, while Pakistan’s casualties are estimated at around 453, though the exact figure remains disputed.

Globally, nuclear threats have failed to prevent aggression. Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine occurred despite Moscow possessing approximately 5,889 nuclear warheads (Federation of American Scientists, 2023). The Western response, while cautious to avoid confrontation, included substantial arms supplies and intelligence assistance to Ukraine, undermining assumptions that nuclear capability alone deters conflict.

The shadowy world of 'unknown gunmen'

A trend in recent years is the rise of “unknown gunmen” incidents allegedly targeting individuals seen as threats to Indian security interests. Pakistanis are spooked by it and Indians relish such news, believing their spy agency did it. While the evidence is often circumstantial and governments rarely claim responsibility, the frequency of such killings suggests an emerging pattern.

In Pakistan, numerous individuals identified as terrorists by Indian security agencies have died under mysterious circumstances:

• Ehsanullah Ehsan, the former Pakistani Taliban spokesman implicated in deadly attacks against India, escaped from Pakistani custody in 2020 and later claimed that security forces wanted him dead.
• Pakistan believes that every time trouble brews in Balochistan, Indian sponsors are behind it!
• Recently, in Karachi and Quetta, alleged operatives of groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed have been shot dead in drive-by shootings — cases where the assailants were never identified or apprehended.
• Outside Asia, a similar phenomenon has gained global attention. Pro-Khalistan activists living in Western countries have alleged Indian involvement in high-profile killings:
• Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a prominent Khalistani leader, was shot dead outside a Sikh temple in Surrey, Canada, in June 2023. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau publicly accused Indian agents of involvement, leading to a diplomatic standoff between India and Canada.
• Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, another Khalistani activist, claimed in late 2023 that he was the target of an assassination plot uncovered by US authorities. In November 2023, the US Department of Justice charged an Indian national in connection with an alleged plan to kill Pannun on American soil.

While the Indian government has vehemently denied official involvement, asserting its commitment to respecting the sovereignty of other nations, intelligence experts suggest that a more aggressive stance towards perceived enemies abroad has emerged in India’s unofficial security doctrine. According to a 2024 report by the Atlantic Council, India is increasingly willing to conduct “non-kinetic and kinetic operations” against non-state actors posing security threats, blurring the lines between traditional espionage and active elimination missions.

Historical mistrust and deep-seated paranoia

Mistrust between India and Pakistan has deep historical roots. The mysterious death of Pakistan’s military ruler Zia-ul-Haq in a plane crash on 17 August 1988 led to immediate speculation about a “foreign hand”, with India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) being one of the agencies suspected by conspiracy theorists, despite the lack of concrete evidence.

Since then, allegations of Indian interference have become entrenched in Pakistan’s political discourse. Accusations against RAW for funding insurgents in Balochistan, fomenting unrest in Karachi, and supporting separatist movements in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have been common themes in Pakistani media and military briefings.

The recent spate of killings attributed to “unknown gunmen” — both within Pakistan and among the diaspora abroad — has amplified these suspicions, creating a volatile environment where conspiracy theories flourish and hard evidence remains elusive.

Is another India-Pakistan war likely?

Despite the heightened media rhetoric, a full-scale war between India and Pakistan remains unlikely for several reasons:

• Nuclear deterrence: India possesses approximately 164 nuclear warheads, and Pakistan has around 170 (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 2024). Both countries have developed second-strike capabilities, making nuclear escalation an unattractive option.
• Economic stakes: A protracted conflict would have devastating consequences for India’s $4 trillion economy and Pakistan’s much smaller but critically fragile $370 billion economy.
• International diplomacy: The United States, China, Saudi Arabia, and other major powers have strategic interests in maintaining peace in South Asia. Diplomatic backchannels and international pressure have historically helped de-escalate past crises, such as during the 2001–2002 military standoff and the aftermath of the 2019 Pulwama attack.
• Military balance: While India enjoys significant conventional superiority, with an army of over 1.4 million active personnel compared to Pakistan’s around 654,000, New Delhi is wary of fighting a two-front war against both Pakistan and China simultaneously.

Minor skirmishes, terrorist attacks, or targeted strikes remain possible — and dangerously so — but total war appears unlikely unless triggered by a major miscalculation or an uncontrollable escalation.

The current media-driven hysteria over a potential India–Pakistan war is less a reflection of actual military intentions than a manifestation of deep-seated historical anxieties, amplified by irresponsible journalism and social media algorithms.

The unsettling rise of “unknown gunmen” killings — targeting both militants in Pakistan and separatists abroad — adds a shadowy, covert dimension to this already fraught relationship. Whether orchestrated or coincidental, these incidents deepen mistrust and raise the stakes of even minor provocations.

In an environment where nuclear weapons exist, tempers flare easily, and narratives of victimhood and vengeance run deep, the need for journalistic responsibility, political prudence, and clear-headed diplomacy has never been greater.