Justin Trudeau steps down: Implications for India

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced his resignation as the leader of the Liberal Party and prime minister. He will remain in office until the party selects a new leader, though the timeline for his departure remains uncertain. 

Trudeau’s resignation marks the end of a significant chapter in Canadian politics, and its impact is likely to resonate beyond Canada, especially in its relations with India, which was irritated by his pro-Khalistan policy.

Embattled Canadian PM @JustinTrudeau to step down as party leader. He has been facing growing resistance from within his party as well as allies.

— The Squirrels (@thesquirrelsin) January 6, 2025

Canada-India relations at a crossroads

Trudeau’s exit comes during heightened tensions between Canada and India, triggered by his allegations that India was involved in the killing of Khalistani activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada. These accusations, denied by New Delhi, have strained diplomatic ties.

Trudeau’s inability to provide concrete evidence further deepened mistrust between the two nations. As Trudeau steps aside, the future of Canada-India relations remains uncertain.

Potential diplomatic shifts

Trudeau’s resignation could pave the way for a recalibration of Canada’s foreign policy toward India. A new Liberal leader might either continue Trudeau’s critical stance or opt for a more conciliatory approach. If the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, gain power, a significant shift in priorities is expected.

Poilievre has criticised Trudeau’s handling of India relations and might focus on economic collaboration, potentially easing tensions. However, his controversial past, including skipping a Diwali event in 2022, has raised concerns among the Indian diaspora, leaving doubts about his approach to cultural sensitivities.

Trade relations: Continuity or change?

Under Trudeau, Canada-India trade flourished, with bilateral trade reaching $8.4 billion by 2024. Major exports like potash and industrial chemicals flowed to India, while Canada imported pharmaceuticals and electronic goods. Ongoing trade talks, including the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), remain crucial.

Trudeau’s departure raises questions about whether the new leadership will maintain this momentum or alter trade policies. Any shifts could have significant repercussions for both economies.

Immigration policies in focus

Trudeau’s immigration policies, particularly the suspension of the fast-track study visa program (SDS), have drawn criticism, especially from Indian students. With over 427,000 Indian students in Canada, recent cuts to international student permits—35% this year and an additional 10% next year—have caused widespread frustration.

Poilievre’s more selective immigration stance, favouring "high-potential" students and workers, could further strain relations with India and alienate parts of the Indian diaspora.

What’s next?

Trudeau’s resignation signals a transformative moment for Canada’s political landscape. The Liberal Party’s choice of a successor and the possibility of a Conservative-led government will shape Canada-India relations in the coming years. As India’s global influence grows, Canada’s next leader will need to navigate complex issues of trade, immigration, and diplomacy with precision.

The months ahead will reveal whether Trudeau’s departure leads to a fresh start in Canada-India ties or exacerbates existing challenges. The outcome will not only redefine bilateral relations but also Canada’s broader role on the global stage.