Kejriwal is to Delhi what Modi is to India: Yashwant Deshmukh

The well-known psephologist said that while the AAP's victory in the coming Delhi election is a foregone conclusion, the ruling party's margin of victory will reduce

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The Squirrels Bureau
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It does not matter that a whole lot of top leaders and ministers in the Aam Aadmi Party's government In Delhi were jailed, reputed psephologist Yashwant Deshmukh said in an interview with Bhupendra Chaubey, adding that these politicians did not enjoy the kind of "goodwill" that former Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal did.

Deshmukh likened Kejriwal's popularity in Delhi to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's across the country, claiming that people do not have high opinion about union ministers either.

The interview was held about a week before the citizens of the national capital are going to cast their votes for a new government of the city-state of Delhi, which does not enjoy all rights typical of a regular state. Nevertheless, the Delhi elections are keenly followed, given that it's the capital of the country with heavy media presence.

The following is what The Squirrels found data-wise while comparing the national convener of the AAP with the tallest leader of the BJP:

1. Electoral performance comparison

Narendra Modi (National Scale - Lok Sabha Elections)

  • 2014 general election: BJP won 282 seats, a majority on its own, with a 31% vote share nationally. Modi's appeal as a decisive leader, focus on development, and strong Hindutva support played a crucial role.
  • 2019 general elections: BJP improved its tally to 303 seats (out of 543) with a 37.36% vote share. Modi’s strongman image, Balakot strikes, and welfare schemes solidified his dominance.
  • Personal factor: Surveys consistently showed that a large section of voters chose BJP primarily due to Modi, with 40-50% approval ratings across states even outside BJP's strongholds.

Arvind Kejriwal (Delhi scale - Assembly elections)

  • 2013 Delhi election: AAP won 28 out of 70 seats with a 29.49% vote share, forming a short-lived government with Congress support.
  • 2015 Delhi election: AAP won 67 out of 70 seats, with a massive 54.3% vote share—a landslide victory driven by anti-corruption sentiment and welfare policies.
  • 2020 Delhi election: AAP again won a dominant 62 out of 70 seats, securing 53.57% vote share, consolidating its control over Delhi’s electorate.
  • Personal factor: Kejriwal was clearly the face of AAP’s campaign, with his popularity largely confined to Delhi.

Takeaway: Kejriwal's popularity in Delhi is comparable in intensity to Modi’s national appeal, but its impact is localised to one state, while Modi’s charisma influences elections across India.


2. Voter base and appeal

Factor Narendra Modi (National) Arvind Kejriwal (Delhi)
Voter base Nationwide, from urban middle class to rural poor Primarily Delhi's urban and semi-urban voters
Core supporters Hindutva base, aspirational middle class, rural poor Middle class, lower-income groups, migrants
Key issues Nationalism, strong leadership, economic development, Hindutva Free electricity, water, schools, health care
Leadership style Centralized, strongman image Grassroots, people-friendly approach
Perceived weakness Criticism over economic policies, opposition to authoritarianism Allegations of populism, limited national footprint

Takeaway: Modi's appeal transcends economic classes and regions, while Kejriwal relies heavily on Delhi’s urban electorate and welfare-driven politics.


3. Vote share in Delhi (AAP vs BJP in different elections)

Election AAP Vote Share BJP Vote Share Congress Vote Share
2013 Assembly 29.49% 33.07% 24.55%
2015 Assembly 54.3% 32.2% 9.7%
2020 Assembly 53.57% 38.51% 4.26%
2014 Lok Sabha (Delhi only) 32.9% 46.4% 15.2%
2019 Lok Sabha (Delhi only) 18.1% 56.6% 22.5%

Observation:

  • In Delhi Assembly elections, Kejriwal dominates.
  • In Delhi during national elections, BJP, riding on Modi’s popularity, overtakes AAP significantly.

Takeaway: Kejriwal’s appeal is overwhelming in Delhi’s local elections, but Modi's brand consistently overshadows AAP in national elections.


4. Political messaging and brand strategy

Factor Narendra Modi (BJP) Arvind Kejriwal (AAP)
Core narrative "Strong India, Nationalism, Vikas (Development), Hindutva" "Honest Governance, Welfare, Common Man’s Leader"
Use of media Large-scale digital, social media, traditional rallies Heavy use of social media, direct outreach
Charismatic leadership Presidential-style campaign “Aam Aadmi” (Common Man) image
Symbolism Modi as a global statesman, decisive leader Kejriwal as a grassroots problem-solver

Takeaway: Modi’s appeal is leader-centric with nationalistic themes, while Kejriwal builds a local, issue-based identity.


5. National vs. Regional Impact

  • Modi’s appeal is pan-India, helping BJP win state elections where he doesn’t even contest (e.g., Gujarat, UP, MP, Assam).
  • Kejriwal’s brand has struggled outside Delhi—AAP failed in UP (2017), Uttarakhand (2022), and managed limited success in Punjab (2022).
  • Modi’s direct appeal delivers 30-40% vote share in many states, whereas Kejriwal has not replicated his Delhi success at a national level.

Final verdict

  • In Delhi: Arvind Kejriwal is as dominant as Modi is in national politics. His governance model and personal brand resonate strongly with Delhi voters.
  • Beyond Delhi: Modi’s brand has a far greater impact across India, while Kejriwal’s influence is yet to scale nationally.
  • Electoral Strength: Modi’s BJP has a consistent 35-40% national vote share, while AAP’s national influence is marginal outside Delhi and Punjab.

Thus, Kejriwal’s Delhi-specific popularity can be compared to Modi’s in intensity but not in scale or national impact.

Narendra Modi BJP Delhi election AAP Arvind Kejriwal
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