Maharashtra Assembly elections: A week to voting, who has the edge?

One week before polling starts in Maharashtra, what is the mahaul? What is it looking like?

Everyone we spoke to, politicians, locals, journalists, campaign managers, election strategists and general gyaanis, all used the same phrase: “it is very tight”.

About 15 days ago, roaming around in the Vidharbha area, which most locals say will the key to the Mantralaya, it appeared that the MVA had a distinct edge. The Lok Sabha polls had thrown up a very unexpected result with the Congress scoring high, on the back of OBCs moving in large numbers to it and helping the MVA. Even the RSS, which has high stakes in the state given its fountainhead is in Nagpur, was not sure if the BJP will be able to make much of an impact (it has changed its position now, having thrown its organisation’s heft behind the BJP). It was kind of similar to the situation in Haryana during the campaign: the narrative was strongly inclined towards the challenger. But then Haryana also threw a political curveball. That might not exactly the situation in Maharashtra at this time, but don’t be surprised if it does. As of now, things appear on even keel for both sides. A Sharad Pawar NCP insider says that the the latest move by the government to give advance payment of Rs 7,500 for women has created a positive environment for the Mahayuti.

Mahayuti’s campaign points

The Mahayuti, with the BJP, Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP, is pushing its agenda in divergent manners. Shinde, being the CM, is focused on development and welfare schemes like the Ladki Behna scheme which he is banking on, as well as aid to youth and farmers. In all interviews, Shinde talks about the development work he says he has done in the last two years as chief minister.

The BJP, which has kind of become second fiddle despite being the bigger partner, has gone along with the development pitch but also coated it with its strident Hindutva angle. At the manifesto launch, home minister Amit Shah brought attacked the Congress by saying that it will take away people’s properties and give it to Muslims. The PM, apart from talking incessantly about how the Congress wants to ‘divide society’ by splitting up so-called lower castes by demanding a caste census also brought up his version of the UP CM’s ‘katenge toh batenge’ slogan  — which he has been repeating in Maharashtra — by saying ‘ek hain to safe hain’. The prompt is clear: the BJP has seen that it suffered in the Lok Sabha polls because of the shift in OBC votes and wants to prevent a repeat.

But for the other two partners of the Mahayuti, the stridency of these slogans is causing discomfort. Shinde has distanced himself without saying it in so many words. Ajit Pawar has clearly said that this kind of rhetoric doesn’t work in Maharashtra, which has a strong secular and progressive tradition. Analysts also say that the hard right pitch will not work. But two things are worth considering here. One, that this rhetoric could well work on the hardcore Hindutva voters of the BJP. And that in the run up the results of the general elections, recall how the PM started off talking of development and a futuristic vision for India but with reports of BJP voters staying away, he turned to a very hard, polarising campaign. An analysis of the Lok Sabha wins pattern will show that the BJP lost a large number of seats in the first two phases. This could well be the thinking in the BJP camp, even if it not shared by the other partners.

MVA’s campaign points 

The MVA has in part carried on with its ‘social justice via caste census’ pitch from the Lok Sabha as well as freebies and cash doles, much like the Mahayuti. In fact, it is now a kind of competition between who will give out more ‘revdis’. In addition to this, the MVA has appealed to Maharashtra’s ‘pride’ by taking about how industries and companies are being shifted out of the state and being sent to neighbouring Gujarat. This Maharashtra v Gujarat narrative is one of the key talking points of the MVA, which has repeatedly alleged that projects like the bullet train will benefit only Ahmedabad and that city will replace Mumbai as the financial capital of the country.

The main political players

What does the future hold for the main players in the race?

For Eknath Shinde, things could really be looking up if the Mahayuti manages to retain power. Two years ago, he was seen as stopgap CM, who would be discarded once things settled in the state after the Mahayuti took over from the MVA. But it now appears that he is not as indispensable as he was thought to be. Apart from having made the most of his CMship to work up his popularity numbers, the BJP’s thinking is to maintain continuity in the event of a win. The political calculation is that if it looks like Shinde might not be the CM, it might introduce instability among his MLAs, who had joined after splitting the Shiv Sena from Uddhav Thackeray, especially if a win looks unlikely.

In that situation, Devendra Fadnavis could well be left out to face a political winter. His has not given up the dream of returning to the CM’s chair and has publicly chafed at being made Shinde’s deputy. In a tight result, Shinde and his numbers will be essential. In case of a loss, Fadnavis will have nothing left to claim. Either way, he is really between a rock and hard place, despite his reputation as an able administrator.

Ajit Pawar will likely be the biggest loser. In the Mahayuti, he was always the outlier, despite getting the finance portfolio. He was and continues to be seen as Sharad Pawar’s man, even though Pawar senior might not consider him as that any more. He too has probably figured out his narrowing choices, given his statements on caste census and hard Hindutva which are in total divergence from the BJP.

On the other side, Uddhav Thackeray is also in a curious situation. CM for two years, the unlikely politician played risky game of softening his father’s strong Hindu samrat image and allying with arch rival Congress. Thackeray rode on the sympathy wave in the parliament election, but some of that has now evaporated. He also faces the problem of boots on the ground for this election. If the MVA doesn’t pull through, he could be facing a very uncertain political future, since even more of his party leaders and MLAs could desert him.

The Congress is expecting to do well, even thought it doesn’t really have a pan-Maharashtra face or leader. The party’s expectations are based on its unexpected result in the Lok Sabha polls, where it emerged as the largest party in the state, which is also explains why it has carried forward the same campaign into the assembly elections. Yet, it does appear that the Congress is fully in its stride, even though campaigning ends in less than a week. Either it is working quietly on the ground (not something it is known to do) or it is plagued by the usual problems: in-fighting, lack of coherence and the energy to take the fight to a very formidable enemy’s camp. Especially after Haryana, which would have definitely dampened enthusias, though the party has made it a point to publicly declare that it has ‘learnt its lessons’ from that defeat.

Which brings in Sharad Pawar: likely to be the biggest winner in the state. Pawar has the political heft to emerge victorious from the worst bruising and is easily the tallest leader in the state. His position, especially with an MVA win, will only get stronger. In the case of a win, it is pretty easy to predict that the MLAs and leaders who left with Ajit Pawar will want to return and it will also cement the future for his immediate family, especially his MP daughter Supriya Sule. Don’t be surprised if she is pitched as the CM candidate — a first for Maharashtra, which has never had a woman in its highest political position.

Be that as it may, this still remains a very tight election. Of course, the most recent one seen to be very tight was the US — see how that one turned out. Will the Maharashtra result too follow that trend? That’s for the 23rd of November to reveal.