Mamata head and shoulders above remaining opposition but…

The question of who will lead the INDIA bloc has sparked divisions within the multi-party alliance. Trinamool Congress chief and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, a pivotal figure in the coalition, recently suggested, “I can run INDIA bloc… if they can’t run the show.”

Her statement drew support from veteran RJD leader Lalu Prasad Yadav, who responded, “It’s fine, she should be given the responsibility. We agree.” However, projecting Banerjee as a pan-India leader is far from straightforward.

Whatever happened to the spring under the feet of Rahul Gandhi, noticed immediately after the Lok Sabha election results in June? Now a substantive section of the opposition is reposing its faith in the 'Bengal tigress'! Is it because the tide has turned since the Congress's loss in Haryana and Maharashtra?

Of course, it's going to be an uphill task for the challengers for power either way.

Mamata’s regional dominance vs national challenges

While the Congress gained a modest 1.5% increase in vote share in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Trinamool Congress enjoyed a decisive victory in West Bengal’s 2021 Assembly polls, securing 48.02% of the vote compared to the BJP’s 37.97%. This substantial lead cements Banerjee’s dominance in Bengal but raises questions about her appeal outside the state.

Her limitations include communication barriers; her Hindi and English proficiency is often mocked, limiting her acceptance in non-Bengali regions. Additionally, Banerjee’s governance is plagued by accusations of being anti-Hindu. Reports of frequent communal tensions, allegations of favouritism in communal crimes, and perceived indifference toward Hindu grievances fuel a narrative that the BJP exploits effectively on a national scale.

Mamata Banerjee's politics are steeped in blatant appeasement. Her focus remains fixated on pandering to a specific community, ignoring the concerns of others. On the 21st July gathering, she even proposed opening our borders to allow Bangladeshi Muslims to enter India—an… pic.twitter.com/hyB6vtXKZK

— Agnimitra Paul BJP (@paulagnimitra1) December 10, 2024

Hindutva politics and its implications

In Bengal, regional identity often supersedes religious considerations, but outside the state, Hindutva has gained significant traction. The BJP has leveraged this narrative nationally, contrasting Banerjee’s perceived anti-Hindu stance with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s strong Hindu imagery.

Initiatives like the construction of the Ram Temple and projects like the Kashi Vishwanath Corridor further consolidate Modi’s appeal among Hindu voters.

BJP’s missteps in Bengal

Despite its success in the Northeast, the BJP’s Hindutva strategy has faltered in Bengal. Misjudging the cultural and religious dynamics, the party’s reliance on north Indian slogans like “Jai Shri Ram” alienated Bengali Hindus, whose religious traditions emphasize Durga and Kali. Late-course corrections, like adopting “Jai Ma Kali,” appeared opportunistic and failed to resonate.

Cultural misunderstandings and historical baggage further hindered the BJP’s efforts. The vandalism of Ishwarchandra Vidyasagar’s bust during the 2019 Lok Sabha campaign, widely blamed on BJP supporters, is believed to have cost the party crucial seats. The BJP’s perceived neglect of Bengal’s cultural icons has only deepened its disconnect with the state’s electorate.

The opposition’s broader challenges

The INDIA bloc’s difficulties go beyond Banerjee’s limitations. Opposition parties are seen as inconsistently navigating the religious and ideological spectrum. Attempts to counter the BJP’s Hindu image with symbolic gestures, such as Rahul Gandhi’s temple visits or Banerjee’s Hanuman Jayanti celebrations, often come across as insincere. Meanwhile, their pro-Muslim stance alienates Hindu voters, particularly in regions where Muslims do not form a significant electoral bloc.

Economically, the opposition’s socialist rhetoric struggles against the BJP’s welfare-oriented policies, which appeal to both the economically disadvantaged and the aspirational middle class. Modi’s brand of welfare economics, often described as left-leaning, has left little room for traditional leftist parties to differentiate themselves.

However, it is here that Banerjee shines more than the rest of the opposition. Between 2014 and 19, Gandhi cried "suit-boot ki sarkar". It did not work. In the period 2019-24, Congress's old youth icon screamed "Adani-Ambani ki sarkar". That flopped too. Now he has dropped Ambani from the target, but his rants against Adani continue. Banerjee, in contrast, has no problem in working with both of India's greatest industrialists to revive her economically laggard state. 

Conclusion

While Mamata Banerjee commands unrivalled influence in Bengal, her projection as a national leader faces substantial hurdles. The BJP’s stronghold on Hindutva, coupled with Banerjee’s perceived anti-Hindu governance, makes her a challenging figure to market outside Bengal.

For the opposition, the task is not just about uniting under a leader but about crafting a narrative that resonates across India. Without a cohesive strategy that bridges cultural, religious, and economic divides, their chances against Modi’s BJP remain slim.