BJP-JJP Split and the Future of Jat Politics

The BJP's decision to break away from the JJP in Haryana raises questions: is it a hasty reaction to the JJP's demand for a disproportionate share of Lok Sabha seats, or a calculated response to mounting dissatisfaction among the Jat community towards the BJP? Tensions between the BJP and the Jats have been simmering, exacerbated by issues such as the 2020 farm bills, the introduction of the Agniveer scheme, and protests by wrestlers. Undeterred, the BJP has shifted its focus towards winning the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Jat-dominated areas through a different strategy: consolidating support from non-Jat communities, particularly OBCs. This tactical shift aims to secure the 10 seats the BJP won in 2019 by harnessing anti-Jat sentiments and rallying alternative voter bases.

BJP's Haryana Strategy: Diversifying and Fragmenting

The BJP's strategic manouvres in Haryana began well before signs of strain emerged in its alliance with the Dushyant Chautala-led JJP. This was evident in the party's decision to replace its state president, Om Prakash Dhankhad, a member of the Jat community, with Nayab Singh Saini, an OBC leader. Subsequently, Saini's swift elevation to the position of Chief Minister, replacing him with Manohar Lal Khattar, who hails from the Punjabi community, further underscored the BJP's efforts to diversify its support base. Khattar's longstanding presence in the state has bolstered the BJP's appeal among Punjabi voters. Moreover, the exit of the JJP from the alliance is poised to benefit the BJP by further fragmenting Jat votes, which were previously divided among the Congress and INLD.

While this transition had been anticipated in light of the approaching 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the resurgence of farmers' protests posed a renewed threat of uniting anti-BJP factions. The party couldn't afford to let this jeopardize its electoral prospects. Afterall Jats comprise 20-25% of population in this region. Despite the perceived risk, the BJP had to take a decisive stand. Dissolving this alliance could signify a definitive rupture in the BJP's relationship with the Jat community and potentially undermine Jat leadership within the party. Recent events in Rajasthan, where two-time Churu MP Rahul Kaswan resigned from the BJP, and in Haryana, where Hissar MP Brijendra Singh departed for similar reasons, underscore the gravity of these concerns. Additionally, the denial of Lok Sabha ticket to prominent leader in neighbouring western Uttar Pradesh, Satyapal Singh, further accentuates the party's strategic recalibration.

The BJP's success in transcending the Jat versus non-Jat divide in Haryana has been bolstered by the state's economic evolution. Over the past decade, the economic influence of the Jats, who historically held significant land ownership, has diminished due to a decline in agricultural productivity and a shift towards industrial development. 

BJP's Electoral Rollercoaster: Navigating Alliances and Controversies in Haryana

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP swept all ten seats in Haryana. However, in the subsequent assembly elections later that year, the party only managed to secure 41 out of 90 seats, while the Congress won 30, the JJP claimed 10, and independents clinched 7 seats. Forming a government necessitated the BJP's alliance with the JJP, leading to Dushyant Chautala, the JJP chief, assuming the Deputy Chief Minister's role. However, in 2020, the introduction of the contentious farm laws sparked widespread protests and raised questions about the BJP's stance on farmer issues, placing pressure on the JJP. Despite mounting concerns, the JJP remained aligned with the BJP, opting to overlook these issues. Similar anxieties arose following the unveiling of the Agniveer scheme which shortened service years for armed forces personnel, and protests by Haryana's women wrestlers against former wrestling federation chief Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh over harassment allegations. These incidents collectively contributed to a negative public perception of the BJP, further complicating the political landscape in Haryana.

The socio-political landscape of Haryana is prominently shaped by three key groups: farmers, soldiers, and sportspersons. However, under the BJP's rule, it was widely perceived that the interests of these groups have been overlooked. Despite growing dissatisfaction among Jat leaders regarding the BJP's alliance with the JJP, the party chose to maintain the partnership, even disregarding objections from a faction of BJP leaders. Moreover, the JJP's assertion that they represent farmers' interests failed to resonate with the Jat community, with many perceiving their alliance with the BJP after the assembly elections as merely a quest for power rather than genuine representation of farmer concerns.

BJP's Electoral Calculations in Uttar Pradesh

In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP's alliance with the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) hinged on Jayant Chaudhary's acceptance of two Lok Sabha tickets and a Rajya Sabha seat as part of the agreement with the NDA. This collaboration was seen as an opportunity for the BJP to strengthen its support among the Jat community, the RLD's core constituency, and gain an advantage in at least seven seats in Western UP, where its electoral prospects were deemed uncertain based on ground surveys conducted by the party before the Lok Sabha elections. Despite the momentum gained from the inauguration of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya, the party's internal surveys positioned it as trailing in constituencies such as Bijnor, Amroha, Kairana, Muzaffarnagar, Meerut, Fatehpur Sikri, and Hathras.

There were clear signs that the BJP would face tough competition in these constituencies. Despite expectations that Jat leaders within the BJP organization and government would sway the community's support, they seemed to have faltered, failing to secure seats for the party. In the 2022 UP assembly elections, the RLD managed to secure 8 seats, and the RLD-SP alliance has performed consistently well since then, notably winning a majority of Urban Local Body seats. In contrast, the BJP faced disappointment, winning only 20 out of 56 Nagar Palika Chairman seats and 34 out of 124 Nagar Panchayat seats. Even with the appointment of Bhupendra Chaudhary, a Jat from Moradabad, as the state president, the BJP's performance didn't improve significantly, as evidenced by their lacklustre showing in his home district.

Reconfiguration of Jat Politics in North India

Overall, the Jat community holds significant influence over approximately 70 Lok Sabha seats and 160 assembly seats across five states: Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Rajasthan, Punjab, and Delhi. However, with shifting political dynamics, there is expected to be a reconfiguration in Jat-dominated politics. This shift could have profound implications for Jat political dynamics. Feeling marginalized by the BJP, Jats are increasingly leaning towards the Congress and AAP, both within parliamentary chambers and on the streets. BJP undoubtedly will use this situation to further its political gains by gaining traction with non-Jat OBCs in Jat-land and allowing fragmentation of Jat votes on a large scale. Whether the opposition can effectively address this fragmentation and mount a robust challenge against the BJP in the elections remains uncertain.