Sri Lanka elects a leftist after Bangladesh goes Islamist: Implications for India

Since Sheikh Hasina fled Bangladesh and was given refuge in India, Bangladesh has been discussed threadbare. Now the Sri Lankan election results have thrown up a leftist party as the winner after Rajapaksa's escape from the island country was followed by a makeshift government.

Leftist leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake has won big-time in Sri Lanka’s presidential election held on Sunday, 22 September. His victory represents a decisive departure from the traditional political framework of the island nation and heralds a period of transformative change.

The Election Commission of the island nation officially announced Dissanayake as president-elect following a second vote count, a procedure that marked a historic first in the country’s electoral process.

The necessity for this preferential vote tally arose because neither Dissanayake nor his main opponent, Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa, attained the required majority of over 50% in the initial round of voting.

Approximately 76% of the 17.1 million eligible voters participated in the election held on Saturday, September 21, 2024. Dissanayake and his People’s Liberation Front pledged not to abandon the contentious $2.9 billion IMF bailout agreement but to seek a renegotiation instead.

When people vote for the left

Whenever the people of a country/state feel miserable, it's natural to lean leftward. Because wealth redistribution is a luring proposition. The poor tend to believe an ideal, utopian government would be fair in assigning individuals the dues they deserve. Ironically, they also topple governments based on this belief, ignoring the possibility that while the head of the overthrown government came across as the villain, it is in the nature of any government to turn villainous if given unbridled power, and socialism does exactly that — making the government the arbiter of all things.

This is like India against Corruption saying in 2011 that politics was evil and the government was corrupt and then proposing Lokpal, a government body, as the solution! It is one of the reasons Delhi hasn't changed. Because Arvind Kejriwal looks for government solutions to government problems. His administration is all about bijli, sadak, paani and how a government can manage them better — a typical municipal approach. Even his idea of better school education is better school buildings! It is the reason some of Narendra Modi's initiatives failed — he relied too much on bureaucrats. For example, the more he tries to rationalise the tax slabs, the more he complicates them.

How a leftist government of a foreign country impacts India

Now, how does a leftist government impact India? That's difficult to say. If Sri Lanka goes the Pushpa Kamal Dahal ('Prachanda' of Nepal) way, it will be a bit hostile. But remember, Sheikh Hasina's Awami League is a leftist party too. It broke away from the Muslim League, based on leftist ideals. The Awami League has been quite friendly to India.

In the case of Colombo, it depends on how it balances the interests of New Delhi and Beijing. Despite infamously losing the Hambantota Port to China after failing to meet the tough loan repayment terms — all beneficiaries of China complain about this — Ranil Wickremesinghe, who followed the Rajapaksa regime, allowed an alleged spy ship from China to come ashore at a Sri Lankan harbour, disregarding India's concern. The outgoing president isn't a leftist; still, he did it.

There are two possibilities in a leftist dispensation: either it is only about wealth redistribution in the domestic circuit, or it also believes in a universal Commune, like many Muslims believe in a global Islamic Brotherhood, where their ideological identity trumps their nationalism. They are Communist/Muslim first and Indian, Polish or Mexican later. In such a case, the island nation will draw closer to China, which will be detrimental to India. If not, India has nothing to worry about.

This means one needs to study the 'new kid on the block' to know whether Sri Lanka's new head of state will go the Prachanda way or the Hasina way.

Anura Kumara Dissanayake, who?

Anura Kumara Dissanayake, commonly known by his initials AKD, was born on 24 November 1968 and is a prominent Sri Lankan politician currently serving as the tenth president of the island nation. Before his election as President, he represented the Colombo District as a Member of Parliament and has held the position of party leader for the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna since 2014, as well as for the National People's Power, since 2019. Dissanayake was a candidate in the 2019 presidential election and has been designated as the NPP candidate for the upcoming 2024 presidential election, advocating a platform focused on anti-corruption, which contributed to his electoral success.

Dissanayake's political involvement began during his school years, and he was actively engaged in student politics at the university level before joining the JVP politburo in 1995. He has been a member of parliament since September 2000, serving through both appointments from the national list and direct elections. His previous roles include Minister of Agriculture, Livestock, Land, and Irrigation from 2004 to 2005, as well as Chief Opposition Whip from 2015 to 2018. He was elected as the leader of the JVP during the party's 17th National Convention on 2 February 2014.

Born in the village of Thambuthegama in the Anuradhapura District of North Central Province, Sri Lanka, Dissanayake is the son of a laborer and a housewife, and he has one sister. He received his early education at Thambuthegama Gamini Maha Vidyalaya and Thambuthegama Central College, where he became the first student from his college to gain admission to a university. Dissanayake joined the JVP in 1987, becoming involved in student politics and engaging in full-time political activities during the 1987-1989 JVP insurrection. He initially enrolled at the University of Peradeniya but left due to threats, later transferring to the University of Kelaniya, where he graduated in 1995 with a Bachelor of Science degree in physical science.

The above reads like a typical life sketch of a communist who struggled his way up the social ladder. To understand Dissanayake's politics better, further studies are needed into his career in politics.

JVP Politburo

In 1995, he assumed the role of National Organizer for the Socialist Students Association and was subsequently appointed to the Central Working Committee of the JVP. In 1998, he became a member of the JVP's Politburo. The JVP, having re-entered mainstream politics under the leadership of Somawansa Amarasinghe, supported Chandrika Kumaratunga during the 1994 Sri Lankan parliamentary election.

Cabinet minister

He entered parliament in 2000 after being elected from the National list of the JVP in the 2000 Sri Lankan parliamentary election and was re-elected following the 2001 parliamentary election. In 2004, the JVP formed an alliance with the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and contested the 2004 parliamentary elections as part of the United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA), securing 39 seats in parliament. Dissanayake was elected from the Kurunegala District under the UPFA banner and was appointed Minister of Agriculture, Livestock, Land, and Irrigation by President Kumaranatunga in February 2004 within the joint SLFP–JVP government.

He resigned from his ministerial position on 16 June 2005, along with other JVP Ministers, following the decision of JVP leader Amerasinghe to withdraw from the United People's Freedom Alliance in protest against President Kumaranatunga's controversial joint mechanism with the LTTE for coordinating tsunami relief efforts in the northern and eastern provinces. He held the position of Chief Opposition Whip from September 2015 until December 2018.

JVP leader

On 2 February 2014, during the 17th National Convention of the JVP, Dissanayake was appointed as the new leader of the party, succeeding Somawansa Amarasinghe.

Presidential candidate

2019 presidential election

On 18 August 2019, the National People's Power, a political entity led by the JVP, announced Dissanayake as its presidential candidate for the 2019 elections. He finished in third place, garnering 3% of the valid votes, which amounted to 418,553 votes.

Ideology

Dissanayake has been identified as a neo-Marxist figure. He has committed to disbanding parliament within 45 days of assuming office and aims to secure a general mandate for his policies. In the 2024 presidential election, he campaigned on a platform focused on anti-corruption and poverty alleviation. Dhananath Fernando, the CEO of the Colombo-based pro-market think tank Advocata Institute, noted that Dissanayake now promotes a pro-trade strategy, which includes simplifying the tariff structure, enhancing the business environment, reforming tax administration, combating corruption, and positioning the private sector as a key driver of economic growth. Nevertheless, his position regarding debt negotiations remains ambiguous.

Tax reforms

Dissanayake has expressed strong criticism of the government of the island nation as well as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), asserting that the IMF is primarily interested in rescuing corrupt administrations. He has argued that certain conditions imposed by the IMF should be renegotiated, particularly the reduction of taxes such as the Pay-as-you-earn tax, which has shown better performance while cutting expenditures to achieve the primary surplus target. He has indicated that his administration would enhance social welfare grants and eliminate Value Added Taxes on essential goods, including food, healthcare services, medical equipment, and educational services, thereby lowering the cost of living. Additionally, he plans to increase taxes on the affluent while supporting their enterprises. Dissanayake has pledged to uphold the agreement with the IMF.

Thus far, there is no anti-India streak seen in Dissanayake. That should raise India's hope. In diplomacy, of course, you're always cautiously optimistic or liberally pessimistic.

Meanwhile, in Bangladesh

The recent decline of Sheikh Hasina’s 15-year autocratic rule marks a significant transformation in Bangladesh’s political environment. As the Awami League (AL), previously led by Hasina, and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) grapple with diminishing influence, a political void has emerged, paving the way for a potential realignment. The erosion of traditional party strength, coupled with the fragility of leftist groups and public discontent with the AL-BNP power dynamics, has created an opportunity for Islamist factions to assert themselves.

For instance, Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), which had maintained a low profile during Hasina's tenure, particularly on university campuses through its student organisation, Bangladesh Islami Chhatrashibir, and by promoting Islamic teachings nationwide, is now re-establishing its presence. JI is broadening its reach from urban areas to rural communities, appealing to conservative demographics.

The political scene in Bangladesh is diverse, featuring 44 active political parties, including 13 Islamic parties that are gaining prominence. Notable entities in this movement include JI, Islami Andolan Bangladesh, and Bangladesh Khelafat Majlis. Although Hefazat-e-Islam is not a formal political party, it exerts considerable influence due to its substantial support base and its outspoken leader, Mamunul Haque, who rose to prominence during the 2013 protests at Shapla Chattar in the capital.

While the AL purportedly stands for secularism and modernisation, stressing economic growth and a secular state, the BNP has historically resonated with nationalist ideals, prioritising social justice. This positions the BNP with a more conservative agenda compared to the AL, yet it remains less aligned with the principles espoused by Islamist groups.

There is little hope to see the AL back in the driver's seat in Bangladesh. India needs to figure out ways to deal with the interim set-up in its eastern neighbour, allegedly an acolyte of the US deep state, who is under constant pressure to pander to the Islamists who kicked Hasina out of the Bengali Muslim country.