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Prime Minister Narendra Modi, arguably the best political communicator of our times, has come up with another blockbuster strategic move: giving his first election season interview as he marches towards a record-breaking third term to a Tamil news channel.
"I go to Tamil Nadu not just for votes. To build a developed India, we need developed states. Tamil Nadu is at the forefront of this," he said.
My interview with @ThanthiTV. Do watch.https://t.co/pyWeqy1vDh
— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) March 31, 2024
There is merit in what the PM is saying. If India is to become a part of the developed world, Tamil Nadu has a critical role to play. As of today, Tamil Nadu stands as the second-largest state economy in India, contributing 8.8% to the national GDP. In FY 2023 alone, Tamil Nadu's state GDP is estimated to have expanded to $294 billion.
In the ten-year period before Covid-19, Tamil Nadu had clocked an average annual growth rate of 11%. At this rate, by India's centenary of independence, Tamil Nadu alone could achieve a Gross State Domestic Product of up to $2.6 trillion.
Modi has repeatedly emphasized how he, rather than Nehru or any preceding Prime Ministers, is the real champion of independent India. He recently pointed out that he was the first Prime Minister born in independent India. Therefore, to realize his economic vision for India, he needs the BJP to be a principal force in Tamil Nadu.
And that's where the BJP's trouble begins. From 1999 to 2019, the BJP's vote share has largely been in single digits. Both the BJP and Congress have formed alliances with the Dravidian parties. In 1999, the BJP allied with DMK, which won 26 seats with a 47% vote share. In 2004, the BJP switched sides, joining hands with AIADMK, resulting in the loss of all seats to DMK, a principal reason for the Vajpayee government's defeat. In 2009 and 2014, the BJP didn’t ally with either Dravidian party. In 2019, it supported AIADMK and won one seat.
| Year | BJP's Alliance | Dravidian Party | Seats Won by Dravidian Party | Dravidian Party's Vote Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | DMK | DMK | 26 | 47% |
| 2004 | AIADMK | DMK | 39 | - |
| 2009 | None | - | - | - |
| 2014 | None | - | - | - |
| 2019 | AIADMK | AIADMK | 38 | - |
Modi on AIADMK
During the interview, the Prime Minister remembered the late CM of Tamil Nadu J Jayalalitha, saying, "I admired Jayalalitha. She was one of those who supported me since 2002."
To overcome these hurdles, the BJP first appointed the young K Annamalai as its party president. He has now been asked to contest on a BJP ticket from Coimbatore, where the BJP has been the second-best on multiple occasions.
From taking the Sengol to Parliament, which garnered great interest in Tamil Nadu, to visiting Rameshwaram before the inauguration of the Ram temple in Ayodhya, to speaking at the Kashi Tamil Sangamam in Varanasi, PM Modi has tried everything.
Eye opening and startling!
— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) March 31, 2024
New facts reveal how Congress callously gave away #Katchatheevu.
This has angered every Indian and reaffirmed in people’s minds- we can’t ever trust Congress!
Weakening India’s unity, integrity and interests has been Congress’ way of working for…
The PM also brought up the subject of Katchatheevu island being ceded to Sri Lanka during Indira Gandhi’s tenure as PM when M Karunanidhi was the CM of Tamil Nadu. His comments have drawn strong rebuttals from the Congress.
Aap chronology samajhiye:
— Jairam Ramesh (@Jairam_Ramesh) March 31, 2024
1. The President of BJP’s Tamil Nadu unit files a RTI query to create a diversionary issue in Tamil Nadu. While lakhs of RTI queries on pressing public issues are ignored or rejected, this one gets VVIP treatment and gets answered rapidly
2. The… https://t.co/i1UXgNuL1d
Caste dynamics
So, what does the BJP need to do to inject a dose of hyper-nationalism in a state like Tamil Nadu? Caste and religion are factors in the state, but unlike the north, the caste angle is taken care of by Dravidian parties. According to the 2011 census, Tamil Nadu has a population of 7.2 crore, with 68% OBCs, 20% SCs, 1% STs, and the rest upper castes. The state has almost 88% Hindus, including SCs and STs. Muslims make up close to 6%, and Christians another 6%. A significant portion of the 6% Christian population comprises Dalits.
| Demographic Group | Percentage of Population |
|---|---|
| OBCs | 68% |
| SCs | 20% |
| STs | 1% |
| Upper Castes | 11% |
| Hindus | 88% |
| Muslims | 6% |
| Christians | 6% |
| Christian Dalits | Significant Portion of Christian Population |
According to a post-poll survey conducted by CSDS and Lokneeti, in the 2019 Lok Sabha poll, while the DMK swept the elections winning 38 out of 39 Lok Sabha seats, the BJP improved its thin vote share by an additional 2%. Major castes that voted for the BJP were Thevars (21%), Gounders (20%), SCs (13.2%), upper castes (8.7%), STs (2%), and Muslims and Christians at 1%. The DMK-led UPA received most votes from SCs (47%), Muslims (40.4%), Vanniyars (38%), upper castes (26.6%), and STs (25.7%).
| Political Party/Caste | Thevars | Gounders | SCs | Upper Castes | STs | Muslims/Christians |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DMK | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| BJP | 21% | 20% | 13.2% | 8.7% | 2% | 1% |
| DMK-led UPA | - | - | 47% | 26.6% | 25.7% | 40.4% |
Perhaps the best bet the BJP had was to get Rajnikant, the megastar, on its side. He flirted with the BJP for sure, but only to return to his filmy avatar soon. The 2024 Lok Sabha poll will show whether the people of the southern state are willing to welcome a party that has long been considered a Hindi belt party by vast sections of the state.