Why BJP struggling to regain power in Delhi

The BJP is depending on the appeal of Brand Modi, as well as leveraging caste and faith-based divisions, along with sentiments of anti-incumbency, to surpass the AAP, particularly in the absence of a local leader from Delhi who can guide the party.

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The Squirrels Bureau
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While senior journalist Ashutosh has his assessment of the electoral situation in Delhi, is the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) poised to challenge the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Delhi? This question looms large among analysts as the Delhi assembly elections approach, scheduled for February 5.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has already entered the fray, branding the AAP as “aapda,” meaning disaster, and characterizing its decade-long governance as “aapda kaal,” or a period of calamity. The BJP has focused its campaign on allegations of excessive spending related to the renovation of the chief minister’s residence, aiming to depict the current AAP administration as corrupt.

In response, AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal has spent the past six months strengthening his support among the urban poor through community meetings, promoting his welfare initiatives, and keeping the BJP on the defensive by holding it accountable for the declining law and order situation in the capital, which falls under the jurisdiction of the Union Ministry of Home Affairs led by Amit Shah.

Meanwhile, the Congress party is striving to regain its footing following its decline after Sheila Dikshit’s defeat in 2013. It is channelling its efforts into matching AAP’s welfare commitments while positioning itself as the sole secular alternative to the BJP.

Indomitable Kejriwal

What distinguishes the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) from its two main rivals is the figure of Arvind Kejriwal, who has maintained his popularity and has been a prominent leader for his party. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has faced challenges in identifying a leader capable of matching the appeal of figures like Madan Lal Khurana or Sushma Swaraj. The attempt to position Kiran Bedi as the chief ministerial candidate in 2015 proved to be a misstep, while Harsh Vardhan was unable to compete effectively against Kejriwal and his team in the 2020 elections. Likewise, the Congress party has struggled to find a successor to Sheila Dikshit, with Ajay Maken and Sandeep Dikshit being seen as loyal party members but lacking the necessary influence within their ranks.

Since the establishment of Delhi's legislative assembly in 1993, the BJP has consistently found it difficult to secure power in the national capital. Apart from its initial term under the leadership of Madan Lal Khurana, the party has not succeeded in surpassing its competitors. The Congress, led by Sheila Dikshit, achieved victory in three consecutive elections from 1998 until AAP first gained power, which included a brief minority government in 2013 and a decisive win in subsequent elections, where AAP secured over 60 seats in the 70-member assembly.

The absence of effective leadership in Delhi has compelled Prime Minister Modi to take a more active role in the BJP, even as the party employs various strategies to mitigate its shortcomings. The BJP recognizes that the electorate in Delhi has increasingly leaned towards AAP in assembly elections, despite showing support for Modi in Lok Sabha elections. Furthermore, while the BJP has successfully utilized a political narrative centred on corruption and dynastic politics against the Congress, it has struggled to counter the AAP, which presents itself as free from such baggage. Kejriwal has consistently outmanoeuvred the BJP whenever it has attempted to challenge AAP. The BJP has been unable to respond effectively to Kejriwal's recent resignation as chief minister, as it grapples with AAP's assertion that its government is led by educated individuals.

No gameplan working for BJP

In the current political landscape, Modi is expected to emphasize his initiatives aimed at public welfare and the corruption investigations involving AAP leaders conducted by central agencies. Meanwhile, the BJP is likely to concentrate its efforts on dividing the electorate based on religious and caste identities.

Despite the presence of polarizing figures within the BJP, such as former MP Parvesh Verma and former MP Ramesh Bidhuri, the strategy to incite concern among Hindus regarding the increasing Muslim population, including Bangladeshi infiltrators and Rohingya settlers, has not succeeded in elevating the party's vote share beyond the 32-37% range. This has been the case since the BJP lost power in the capital in 1998, a decline attributed primarily to soaring onion prices.

In preparation for the 2025 elections, the BJP has introduced an additional dimension to its divisive strategies. Recognizing that a considerable portion of the urban poor, particularly individuals from Bihar and eastern Uttar Pradesh known as Purvanchalis, continue to support the AAP, the party has sought to engage with the Punjabi, Jat, and Gujjar communities in Delhi. Purvanchalis constitute 40% of the electorate in Delhi, while Punjabis account for 20%, and Jats and Gujjars collectively represent another 12% of the voting population. The recent visit of Union Home Minister Amit Shah to the Rakabganj Gurudwara, a significant site for Sikh political engagement in Delhi, exemplifies this outreach effort. Additionally, the decision to nominate Verma, a Jat, and Bidhuri, a Gujjar, as key candidates in the assembly elections reflects this strategic approach.

Consequently, the saffron party is banking on the appeal of Brand Modi, leveraging caste and faith-based polarization, and capitalizing on anti-incumbency sentiments to challenge the AAP, particularly in the absence of a strong leadership figure. More importantly, the party is likely hoping for the Congress to transform the typically bi-polar electoral landscape into a triangular competition.

Whither goest thou, Congress?

The pivotal element in the forthcoming Delhi elections will be the performance of the Congress. Despite facing a leadership vacuum, the BJP has managed to maintain a consistent vote share of approximately 33% since 2013, largely due to the loyalty of its voter base. In contrast, the Congress has experienced a significant decline over the past decade, which has allowed the AAP to emerge as a formidable force.

The Congress's vote share plummeted from 24.55% in 2013 to 9.65% in 2015, and further down to a mere 4.26% in 2020. This decline has predominantly benefited the AAP, which, through vigorous campaigning and a challenge to the status quo, garnered 29.49% of the votes in 2013, securing second place to the BJP in its inaugural elections. The AAP subsequently strengthened its position, capturing over half of the total votes in Delhi in both 2015 (54.34% with 67 seats) and 2020 (53.57% with 62 seats). Conversely, the BJP increased its vote share from 32.19% in 2015 to 38.51% in 2020, yet it still trailed significantly behind the AAP.

Given these circumstances, the BJP has aggressively targeted the AAP government while remaining notably reticent regarding the Congress. This situation is unprecedented for the BJP, which finds itself in a position where it is reliant on the resurgence of its primary political adversary. Should the Congress manage to enhance its vote share, even marginally, the BJP could potentially challenge the AAP. However, if the Congress continues to languish in obscurity, the BJP will likely find itself unable to secure power in Delhi as it has in the past.

Narendra Modi BJP Delhi Indian National Congress AAP Arvind Kejriwal
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