Why the Saudi Arabia-Pakistan defence pact is bewildering

A landmark strategic mutual defence agreement between Saudi Arabia and nuclear-armed Pakistan, signed on 17 September in Riyadh, has deepened the longstanding security ties between the two nations, committing them to treat any aggression against one as an attack on both. 

The pact, inked by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in the presence of Pakistan's army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, comes amid heightened regional volatilities, including Israel's recent airstrike on Hamas leaders in Qatar and a brief India-Pakistan military clash in May 2025. While the agreement institutionalises decades of informal cooperation—rooted in shared Islamic solidarity, economic interdependence and military exchanges—it has sparked debates over its scope, particularly regarding Pakistan's nuclear arsenal and potential nuclear umbrella for Riyadh. 

Indian officials have expressed intent to study its implications for national security. Still, experts largely dismiss immediate threats to New Delhi, characterising the deal as Israel-centric posturing driven by Gulf anxieties over US reliability and Israeli assertiveness.

This development highlights the shifting geopolitical alignments in West Asia and South Asia, where Saudi Arabia seeks diversified security guarantees beyond those provided by Washington.

Signing of the pact and its core provisions

The Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) was unveiled during Sharif's state visit to Saudi Arabia, where he received a ceremonial welcome at Al-Yamamah Palace, complete with F-15 fighter jet flyovers and a red carpet. A joint statement from both governments described it as a "culmination of years of discussions," aimed at enhancing defence cooperation, joint deterrence and regional peace. 

Crucially, it stipulates that "any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both," echoing NATO's Article 5 but without specifying automatic military intervention or timelines for response.

The pact builds on historical foundations: Saudi Arabia recognised Pakistan in 1947, and a 1951 Treaty of Friendship evolved into military pacts, including a 1982 agreement for Pakistani troop deployments and training in the kingdom. Economically, Riyadh has provided billions in loans and oil on deferred payments to Islamabad, including a recent $3 billion extension. 

A senior Saudi official clarified that the agreement is "comprehensive" and "encompasses all military means," but declined to confirm if it extends to Pakistan's nuclear capabilities—the only such arsenal in the Muslim world. 

Pakistani diplomats have long hinted at a potential nuclear umbrella for Saudi Arabia, especially amid Iran's atomic ambitions, though Islamabad maintains its weapons are defensively oriented, primarily against India.

The timing—mere days after an extraordinary Arab-Islamic summit in Doha condemning Israel's 9 September airstrike on Hamas leaders—has fuelled speculation of ulterior motives.

Celebrations followed, with Saudi landmarks illuminated in the flags of both nations, and Pakistani media hailing it as a "brilliant diplomatic achievement." 

On X, users from Pakistan celebrated the "historic pact," with posts emphasising brotherhood and regional stability. Some speculated on economic benefits, like troop deployments to the Saudi-Yemen border.

Regional context and motivations

The agreement emerges from a confluence of geopolitical pressures. Gulf states, long reliant on US security guarantees, are reassessing amid Washington's perceived leniency towards Israel's actions in Gaza and beyond, including the Qatar strike that killed six and targeted ceasefire mediators. Saudi Arabia, rebuffed in bids for US civilian nuclear technology tied to Israel normalisation, is diversifying alliances. 

For Pakistan, facing economic woes and post-May conflict recovery with India, the pact secures financial inflows and bolsters its regional clout, potentially offsetting US sanctions on its missile programme.

Broader shifts include China's growing influence in the Middle East, backing both nations against US dominance. The pact syncs with Riyadh's Vision 2030, seeking stable environs for economic diversification, while Islamabad views it as a counter to Indian assertiveness post-Operation Sindoor. Neither side has clarified activation thresholds, but analysts note it as "posturing" rather than binding escalation, given the geographical distance and differing threat perceptions.

Implications for India: Limited direct threat

India's Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) responded cautiously on 18 September, stating it was "aware of the development" and would "study the implications for our national security as well as for regional and global stability." The Indian National Congress criticised it as a "setback for PM Modi's personalised diplomacy," arguing it has "grave implications" for India's security. 

Yet, experts contend India has little reason for alarm. Saudi Arabia's robust ties with New Delhi—bilateral trade at $52 billion in 2024, joint military exercises and Riyadh's role as a top employer for Indian workers—outweigh its Pakistan links. 

A Saudi official reaffirmed that "our relationship with India is more robust than ever," committing to regional peace contributions.

The pact warrants scepticism: Saudi intervention is improbable in an India-Pakistan war. Riyadh's foreign policy prioritises economic stability and avoids South Asian entanglements, especially given its oil-dependent economy and over 2.6 million Indian expatriate workforce. Pakistan's nuclear doctrine targets India, not the Gulf, and historical precedents—like Saudi neutrality in past Indo-Pak conflicts—suggest the pact won't alter this. 

Analysts at the Stimson Center note it "tests how both manage exposure to each other's tensions," but for India, it's more symbolic than substantive, potentially straining trilateral dynamics without direct military risks. 

On X, Indian users expressed unease, but neutral observers dismissed it as "nervousness" without merit.

Indirectly, it could embolden Pakistan diplomatically, complicating India's Gulf engagements, but New Delhi's Quad alliances and US partnerships provide buffers.

Israel-centric focus: A deterrent signal

While the editor of Hard Talk, Sanjay Kapoor, tells Bhupendra Chaubey in the video above that the pact might be aimed at the rebel forces, such as the Houthis in Yemen, because of which then-Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan was hesitant of this deal, as it would make it launch attacks on fellow Muslims, there are implications of this pact for Israel too.

The pact's Israel-centric orientation is evident in its timing and context. Coming post-Qatar strike—which "infuriated Arab countries" and exposed Gulf vulnerabilities—the agreement signals Riyadh's intent to deter further Israeli adventurism. 

Saudi officials denied it targets "specific countries or events," but experts like those at Al Jazeera view it as a "watershed" reshaping geopolitics against Israeli aggression, including Gaza operations and strikes on neighbours. 

Pakistan's involvement adds a nuclear dimension, potentially extending deterrence to the holy sites in Mecca and Medina, though Islamabad has no "no-first-use" policy and its arsenal is India-focused.

For Israel, the implications are more pronounced: As the Middle East's undeclared nuclear power, it faces a unified Muslim bloc front, with the pact marking the first major Gulf defence shift since the Qatar incident. Neither Israel nor the US commented immediately, but it complicates the Abraham Accords and Saudi normalisation talks, which have been stalled since 2023. In an Arab-Israeli conflict, Pakistan's intervention is unlikely—lacking direct stakes and facing logistical hurdles—but the pact enhances Riyadh's bargaining power, possibly including nuclear hints to counter Tel Aviv's ambiguity. 

X discussions highlighted it as a "signal to Israel," with posts linking it to broader anti-US/Israel shifts via China.

Broader geopolitical ramifications

This pact signals a multipolar realignment: Saudi Arabia hedges against US unreliability under the Trump administration, while Pakistan leverages it for economic relief amid IMF pressures. 

Globally, it could spur arms races, which would impact Iran's responses and China's Belt and Road investments. 

For India, vigilance is warranted but panic unwarranted; for Israel, it's a stark reminder of evolving threats.

While the pact's mutual defence clause appears ironclad on paper, real-world activations remain improbable due to asymmetric interests. Primarily Israel-centric, it presents India with more diplomatic challenges than existential threats, reinforcing the need for balanced regional engagement.