India weighs counter-move as China pushes ahead with giant Brahmaputra dam plan

China’s proposal to build a vast hydropower system on the Yarlung Tsangpo river in Tibet has triggered fresh strategic unease in India. The project, widely described as the ‘mother of all dams’, is expected to dwarf existing hydropower stations and could reshape water flows across the eastern Himalayas.

Estimated to cost about $168 billion, the Chinese system is projected to be three times more powerful than the Three Gorges Dam, currently the world’s largest hydropower station. Yet despite its scale, details remain sparse, fuelling concern in downstream countries, particularly India, where the river flows on as the Brahmaputra.

Indian authorities have said they are closely monitoring developments, wary of both the environmental impact and the strategic implications of a project being built upstream, close to the contested Himalayan border.

Strategic unease over water, security, transparency

The primary source of anxiety lies in the lack of transparency surrounding the Chinese plan. Observers note that the dam forms part of a broader infrastructure push under President Xi Jinping, aimed at strengthening energy security and consolidating control over sensitive border regions.

Analysts argue that the project’s location is no accident. A dense network of roads, tunnels and power installations across Tibet suggests a dual-use logic, blending civilian infrastructure with strategic leverage. Control over a major transboundary river adds another layer of influence, especially during periods of heightened tension along the Line of Actual Control.

For India, the risks are structural. The Brahmaputra supports tens of millions of people across India and Bangladesh. Experts have warned that upstream interventions could reduce dry-season flows by as much as 85 per cent, with serious consequences for agriculture, fisheries and riverine ecosystems. The downstream impact, however, remains poorly studied, largely because of limited access to data from the Chinese side.

Concerns are sharpened by China’s mixed record on transnational rivers. Past accusations, which Beijing has denied, of manipulating flows on the Mekong have reinforced Indian fears that water could be used as a tool of pressure in a crisis. This is why some Indian commentators describe the project as a potential ‘water bomb’, capable of altering flows at short notice.

Inside China’s proposed dam system

Available evidence suggests the project will not be a single dam but a complex, multi-layered hydropower network. Public documents, academic research and satellite imagery point to a cascade system along the Yarlung Tsangpo, combining surface reservoirs with underground power stations linked by tunnels.

The design is expected to exploit the river’s dramatic 2,000 m drop at the Great Bend, one of the steepest descents of any major river in the world. Water would be diverted through tunnels bored into the mountains, passing through a series of five power stations at progressively lower elevations before rejoining the main river channel.

A large reservoir near Mainling city is likely to play a central role in regulating flows, supported by additional upstream and downstream storage structures. Together, these would give operators substantial control over how much water enters the system and when it is released downstream.

India’s hydropower response taking shape

In response, India is examining ways to strengthen its own position on the river. Plans are under discussion for a large dam on the Indian stretch of the Brahmaputra, intended both to generate power and to mitigate the risks posed by upstream regulation in China.

India has identified at least 208 hydropower projects across the Brahmaputra basin, which spans Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Sikkim, Mizoram, Meghalaya, Manipur, Nagaland and West Bengal. The basin accounts for more than 80 per cent of India’s untapped hydropower potential, with Arunachal Pradesh alone contributing about 52.2 GW.

The total planned capacity for the basin stands at around 65,000 MW, including about 4,807 MW already operational and roughly 2,000 MW under construction. The broader plan also includes pumped storage facilities and small hydro projects below 25 MW.

The most ambitious proposal is the Upper Siang multipurpose project in Arunachal Pradesh, with a planned capacity of about 11,000 MW. However, it has been stalled for nearly a decade amid strong opposition from local communities concerned about displacement, environmental damage and cultural loss.

As China moves ahead with its Himalayan megaproject, India faces a difficult balancing act. Any counter-dam must address strategic and water-security concerns while navigating domestic resistance and ecological sensitivities. The contest over the Brahmaputra is therefore shaping up as much more than an energy debate; it is becoming a test of how two Asian powers manage shared rivers in an era of rising mistrust.