Core 5: Trump planning a secretive US-China-India-Russia-Japan superclub

What occurs when the three largest superpowers and Asia's most populous democracy gather in one room? It could result in the formation of the most formidable bloc in history, reshaping the geopolitical landscape. US President Donald Trump is reportedly considering the bold concept of a 'Core 5' or C5 superclub that would include India, the US, Russia, China, and Japan, as reported by Politico, citing Defence One. If the rumours circulating in Washington are accurate, Trump aims to establish the 'Core 5' as a possible alternative to the G7 (Group of Seven), effectively sidelining Europe.

Although this idea may currently seem implausible, Defence One noted that the proposal was mentioned in the unpublished version of the US's National Security Strategy. Nevertheless, the White House has refrained from confirming the existence of such a proposal.

A superclub of five nations

Earlier this year, the US president hinted at this ambitious new geopolitical initiative. During the G7 Summit in June, he boldly proposed that Russia and even China should be included in the bloc. He further claimed that it was a "very big mistake" to exclude Russia in 2014 following its annexation of Crimea. This action is believed to have contributed to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. "You wouldn't have a war right now if you had Russia in," Trump said, underlining that not having Putin as part of the bloc "makes life more complicated". It appears to have motivated Trump to consider the concept of a five-nation superclub, uniting the US, Russia, China, India, and Japan under a single strategic framework.

"The strategy proposes a Core 5, or C5, made up of the US, China, Russia, India and Japan -- which are several of the countries with more than 100 million people," the report said. The proposal said the bloc would meet regularly, as the G7 does, for summits with specific pressing themes.

It appears that this has motivated Trump to consider the concept of a five-nation superclub, uniting the US, Russia, China, India, and Japan under a single strategic framework.

Reports suggest that the initial agenda for the Core-5 group has already been established, with a focus on Middle East security and the normalisation of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

One of Trump's primary objectives during his second term has been to encourage Saudi Arabia to join the Abraham Accords, which established diplomatic relations between Israel and several Arab nations. Currently, Saudi Arabia is not included in the Abraham Accords, which were finalised in 2020 during Trump's first term.

No room for Europe?

If the 'Core-5' proposal is accurate, it signifies a significant change in the US's priorities under Trump. Until now, the US has depended on its European allies. This new approach indicates a shift towards deeper engagement with rising powers, potentially signalling the end of the Quad.

Nevertheless, analysts suggest that such a proposal from Trump may not be entirely misguided. Torrey Taussig, who served on the US National Security Council during the Biden administration, remarked to Politico that this strategy would align with Trump's worldview, "which is non-ideological, through a sympathy for strong players, and through a tendency to cooperate with other great powers that maintain spheres of influence in their region," Taussig said.

The 'Core-5' proposal, however, was excluded from the updated National Security Strategy that the US released on December 5. Interestingly, the document expressed the US's intention to foster stability in its relationship with Russia while also highlighting discrepancies with Europe.

Thaw in India-US relations

The discussion surrounding a potential power bloc that includes India arises at a moment when the relationship between the two countries appears to be improving after a period of tension. On Thursday, Narendra Modi engaged in his third phone conversation with Trump in recent months, which the Prime Minister characterised as "very warm.

Relations between the two nations had deteriorated after Trump imposed the highest tariff of 50% on India, partly due to New Delhi's ongoing acquisition of Russian oil. This revenue stream, Washington argued, was supporting Moscow's military actions in Ukraine—the deadlock over a trade agreement further strained relations.

Nevertheless, tensions began to ease in September when Trump and Modi spoke on the latter's birthday, reaffirming their enduring partnership and putting an end to weeks of diplomatic discord.

Currently, the speculation regarding India's inclusion in Trump's plans for a superclub indicates a strategic shift, with New Delhi, now the fourth-largest economy, being recognised as a vital ally for Washington.