Fertility rate drops to 1.9: Does it reflect India's reality?

India's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has declined to 1.9 births per woman in 2025, falling below the replacement level of 2.1 for the first time, according to the United Nations Population Fund's State of World Population 2025 report. This marks a significant demographic shift, raising questions about whether the figure accurately captures the country's diverse realities.

The drop reflects broader trends in delayed childbirth and urbanisation, but experts debate whether it fully represents rural areas where fertility remains higher.

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UN data, national trends

The UN report highlights India's TFR at 1.9, a decline from 2.0 in 2024, positioning it among countries transitioning to low fertility regimes. Globally, fertility is projected to reach 2.1 by 2050 before falling to 1.8.

Nationally, rural TFR dipped to 2.1 in 2023 from 2.2 in 2022, while urban stood at 1.6, per Times of India data. World Population Review estimates India's 2025 TFR at 2.03, while Macrotrends projects 2.11.

These variations prompt scrutiny: Does the UN's 1.9 reflect comprehensive data or rely on projections?

Age-specific fertility shifts

A key insight is the shift in Age-Specific Fertility Rates (ASFR), moving from younger cohorts (15-19) to older ones (25-29), especially in urban areas, due to delayed marriages and education. Rural trends show similar postponements, though slower.

This indicates women's empowerment but raises concerns about ageing populations and workforce shrinkage by 2050.

Rural-urban divide and data gaps

Rural fertility at 2.1 suggests replacement level, but urban at 1.6 points to sub-replacement trends, per 2023 data. UN projections align with NFHS-5 (2019-2021) showing TFR at 2.0, but critics argue surveys undercount migrant or marginalised groups.

World Bank data shows a steady decline from 5.9 in 1960 to 2.0 in 2022, supporting UN figures. However, regional variations—like higher TFR in Bihar (2.9) vs Tamil Nadu (1.5)—question a uniform 1.9.

Expert views on accuracy

Demographers debate whether 1.9 reflects reality or over-relies on models. Poonam Muttreja of Population Foundation said: "Fertility decline is real, driven by education and contraception." But KS James noted: "Surveys may miss high-fertility pockets."

UN's methodology uses Bayesian models, but ground data like SRS 2023 (TFR 1.9-2.0) supports it.

A TFR below 2.1 signals population stabilisation by 2047, but risks ageing (elderly 20% by 2050). Urban shifts to older cohorts reflect women's choices, but rural lags suggest uneven progress. Policies must address childcare and gender equity to sustain trends.

As India navigates this shift, the 1.9 TFR appears grounded in data, though localised studies are needed for precision.