India demonstrates to sceptics how Indus Water Treaty can practically be breached

There are concerns regarding India's choice to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty in light of the recent terror attack in Pahalgam. KBS Sidhu, a former IAS officer and Principal Secretary for Water and Irrigation, asserts that India is justified in this action. He elaborates on the treaty's implications and argues that India is acting in its own best interests, effectively sidelining Pakistan in the process. 

India signals how the Indus Waters Treaty can be bypassed in practice

In a bold assertion of its strategic resolve, the Indian government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has taken clear steps that challenge the long-standing Indus Waters Treaty. In the wake of the recent act of terrorism in Pahalgam, the administration has begun flushing operations at the Baglihar and Salal dams on the Chenab River in Jammu and Kashmir—projects that are part of India’s run-of-the-river hydroelectric infrastructure. This move marks a demonstrable shift in India’s approach to using its share of Indus system waters as a strategic tool.

The government is further expected to revive six hydroelectric projects that have faced delays, including:

• A 1,856 MW project at Sawalkot

• Kirthai I and II, together generating 1,320 MW

• A 1,000 MW plant at Pakal Dul

• Three other facilities contributing a combined 2,224 MW

If completed, these projects could raise Jammu and Kashmir’s power generation capacity to around 10,000 MW, with potential surplus water available for irrigation and domestic use in the northern plains.

This recalibration of river management on the Chenab comes at a time of heightened geopolitical tension. Pakistan remains heavily reliant on the Indus River and its tributaries, making any shift in water availability a sensitive issue.

The method behind the manoeuvre

Flushing—an essential maintenance practice that involves releasing large volumes of water to remove silt and sediment—is now underway at the Baglihar and Salal reservoirs. A senior government source confirmed that the process began over the weekend. The timing is particularly impactful: the flushing coincides with a critical sowing season in Pakistan, potentially disrupting kharif crop cultivation.

Reservoirs without periodic flushing see silt build-up that hampers their performance. India's decision to resume this process now, after years of treaty-based constraints, is seen as part of a broader response to the 22 April terrorist attack in Pahalgam, in which 25 tourists and one local were killed—an incident India suspects involved actors linked to Pakistan.

Although Baglihar and Salal are run-of-the-river systems with minimal storage, they still influence downstream flows. Officials suggest that with the IWT currently in suspension, India is no longer bound to notify Pakistan ahead of water releases from reservoirs on the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum rivers.

Traditionally, such flushing was only permitted during the monsoon, particularly in August, as stipulated under treaty norms.

Breaching the IWT: legal and practical dynamics

Under the IWT, Pakistan holds unimpeded rights over the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum—three rivers that account for roughly 80% of the Indus system’s total flow. India, meanwhile, retains rights to the Sutlej, Ravi, and Beas in the east and can make limited use of the western rivers for non-consumptive purposes, such as hydropower generation and irrigation, provided the infrastructure adheres to strict design parameters.

Run-of-the-river plants, like Baglihar and Salal, are permitted under the treaty but are limited by their inability to store significant volumes of water. The IWT also mandates that India give six months' prior notice before initiating any new construction that could impact water flows, allowing Pakistan to pursue legal remedies to delay or challenge those projects.

That legal safeguard has, in the past, constrained India’s ability to maintain its dams effectively. The Baglihar and Salal projects—commissioned in 1987 and 2009, respectively—have been unable to undergo routine flushing due to treaty limitations. This has had consequences for water quality and hydroelectric efficiency.

India’s resumption of flushing is likely to improve power generation capacity while reducing risks to critical turbine components. While this move does raise concerns in Pakistan about possible flooding or property damage, Indian officials argue the benefits, both technical and strategic, outweigh the diplomatic fallout.

The government is set to convene a high-level meeting this week to discuss the implementation of the six hydroelectric projects and review broader water strategy decisions.

Why sceptics were wrong

When India announced the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, many sceptics questioned whether it had the means to alter water flows significantly. The main argument was that India lacked sufficient infrastructure, especially storage reservoirs, to meaningfully withhold water from Pakistan.

However, recent developments challenge that assumption. On Monday, India temporarily held back water at the Baglihar Dam, albeit for a limited duration, due to the reservoir's small holding capacity.

The Chenab, a 'western river' under the treaty, is legally allocated to Pakistan for unrestricted use, with India allowed access only for specific non-consumptive purposes. Historically, this has limited India’s capacity to construct large-scale dams or storage facilities on these rivers.

Nevertheless, with the treaty now suspended, India may pursue more expansive water management strategies, including the construction of new dams. Former Central Water Commission chairperson Kushvinder Vohra, who has dealt extensively with Indus water disputes, noted that India could now act with fewer constraints if it chooses to formally depart from the treaty framework.