5 things Rahul Gandhi-led INC must mull over post-Haryana polls result

The results from the Haryana election, unexpected to the pollsters, is expected to put pressure again on the Indian National Congress (INC) to rework its strategy after a few months of spotlight on the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for its sub-par performance in the Lok Sabha election. There are at least five things the Congress will do well to ponder over.

1. Pressure to ally with AAP in Delhi

While losing Haryana, the INC's vote share (40.16%) surpassed the BJP's (39.64%) by a mere 1% but could not translate that to more seats. The otherwise routed Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) got 1.66% of the popular vote which, added to the Congress's share, could have toppled the government. Riding perhaps on hubris, the INC had thought it wouldn't need any ally in Haryana. This proved mathematically wrong. The INC may not want to repeat the strategic folly in Delhi, up for election next year.

While the AAP is a formidable force in the national capital even after 10 years of incumbency, thanks to the BJP's lack of local leadership in some measure, the ruling party may well have lost some of its sheen due to voter fatigue added to the alleged Delhi liquor scam, which led to the incarceration of a chunk of its top leadership.

At the same time, the Congress has appeared in no shape to stage a comeback since the death of Sheila Dikshit, Delhi's former chief minister. Meanwhile, the AAP-INC alliance could do no wonder in the Lok Sabha polls. However, the assembly election is a different ball game with much smaller constituencies. Whereas the alliance could not beat the BJP in huge areas of the seven Lok Sabha constituencies of Delhi, it may change the game in the 70 smaller pockets.

2. Jammu & Kashmir victory may not count nationally

The INC-National Conference alliance is ahead in Jammu and Kashmir. The BJP, which won seats only in the Jammu region, has got a decent tally, which may lead to the formation of a minority INC-NC government, perhaps with some outside help, possibly from the NC's bitter rival, the People's Democratic Party (PDP). Be that as it may, this would put the INC in a spot of bother on the national scene.

The BJP is known to turn bellicose, harping on nationalism and Hindutva, when it is in the opposition. It may seize the opportunity to repeatedly question the decisions made by the INC and NC jointly in Jammu and Kashmir. Ruling over a much smaller state, with Ladakh gone in August 2019 along with Article 370, the scope for manoeuvre has reduced for the ruling party or coalition too.

3. Rahul Gandhi will face again what Narendra Modi faced for a few months

Rahul Gandhi has borne the brunt of scathing remarks, lampooning and dismissals since his debut in politics in 2004. He seemed to enjoy a little reprieve since the first week of June when the Lok Sabha election result showed that the BJP had gone overboard with its "ab ki baar 400 paar" war cry. Far from 400, it could not even secure 272, the majority mark on its own. Now, the Haryana result has come as a big relief to the BJP as the 2023 elections in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh had against what the psephologists had suggested.

If the pollsters faced flak by way of being branded as "godi media" for appearing to bid for the government in exit polls for the 2024 Lok Sabha election, they must be questioned also for going wrong in MP, Chhattisgarh and Haryana now.

Surely, the Congress strategy is not going right on multiple fronts

4. Caste division is not selling

Rahul Gandhi's harping on the need for a caste census in India has finally stopped paying dividends for the INC. A caste-wise division of votes in Haryana suggests there has been a split down the middle in Dalit votes. Apparently, the Scheduled Castes are not buying the INC narrative that they have been deliberately not allowed to ride Modi's 'Vikas' bandwagon. Haryana's caste divisions may work differently. The boasting by the INC that "36 biradaris" were with them might have made Dalits and OBCs question whether their consent was sought before making a 'joint declaration' on behalf of all castes.

Team Squirrels had found during the campaign that the smaller groups of lower castes indeed were not as disaffected as the Jats. This is mainly why the INC, which presumed only small additions were needed to 27% of voters of Haryana who are Jats, lost in the ultimate arithmetic game.

5. Stop abusing wealth creators

Casting aspersions on India's largest wealth creators Gautam Adani and Mukesh Ambani at the drop of the hat is not working for Rahul Gandhi. If the voters of Haryana thought a crony government was in place, which would shower one businessman with contracts and deprive all others, they would not have voted the way they did.

Our @bhupendrachaube stands witness to the Congress HQ turning from a springfield to a desert in a matter of minutes!#HaryanaElectionResult pic.twitter.com/hyE3Kph5k6

— The Squirrels (@thesquirrelsin) October 8, 2024

The INC will do well to appreciate the fact that post-1991 liberalisation, it's the private sector that is the primary employment generator. Insisting on the one had that the nation faces a huge job crisis and cursing job creators on the other is ironic. Voters are intelligent enough to see through this duplicitous approach to the country's economy.