Elections in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Wayanad: Facts, figures, issues

Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar announced on 15 October that the Maharashtra assembly election are scheduled for November 20, 2024. The Jharkhand assembly poll will occur in two phases: November 13 and November 20. A by-election in Wayanad is slated for November 13. The results of these elections are to be announced on November 23 after the counting of votes.

The current term of the Maharashtra assembly concludes on November 26 while the term for Jharkhand will end on January 5, 2025.

#Maharashtra and #Jharkhand #assembly elections + by-poll in #Wayanad of Kerala among other by-elections: Facts, figures & issues pic.twitter.com/Q4e7lNMo68

— The Squirrels (@thesquirrelsin) October 15, 2024

Maharashtra & Jharkhand elections: Facts and figures

The election in Maharashtra were not conducted concurrently with those in Jammu & Kashmir and Haryana earlier this month, as stated by Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar, due to the security needs associated with the Jammu and Kashmir assembly election.

In addition to the elections for the two assemblies, the Election Commission (EC) has declared by-polls for three Lok Sabha seats and 47 assembly seats that are currently vacant for different reasons.

Voting for the 288 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Maharashtra are scheduled to take place as outlined. Of the total 288 seats, 234 are designated as general constituencies, with 29 reserved for Scheduled Castes (SC) and 25 for Scheduled Tribes (ST).

The total electorate in Maharashtra stands at 9.63 crore, comprising 4.97 crore male voters and 4.66 crore female voters. The number of young voters aged 20 to 29 is 1.85 crore while first-time voters aged 18 to 19 total 20.93 lakh.

• Total polling stations: 1,00,186
• Number of locations: 52,789
• Urban polling booths: 42,604
• Rural polling booths: 57,582
• Polling booths managed by Persons with Disabilities (PwD): 299
• Polling booths managed completely by women (Pink booths): 388
• Model polling stations: 530

Voters will exercise their franchise for 81 seats in the Jharkhand legislative assembly are scheduled to take place as detailed below. Out of the 81 seats, 44 are designated as general constituencies, 28 are reserved for Scheduled Castes (SC) and 9 are allocated for Scheduled Tribes (ST).

The total number of voters in Jharkhand stands at 2.6 crores, comprising 1.31 crore male voters and 1.29 crore female voters. The demographic of young voters aged 20 to 29 is recorded at 66.84 lakh while first-time voters aged 18 to 19 total 11.84 lakh.

• Total polling stations: 29,562
• Number of locations: 20,281
• Urban polling booths: 5,042
• Rural polling booths: 24,520
• Polling booths managed by Persons with Disabilities (PwD): 48
• Polling booths managed completely by women (Pink booths): 1,271

Issues in Maharashtra polls

Maharashtra is preparing for a highly competitive assembly election scheduled for November 20, characterised by a fragmented political landscape and recent divisions within the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), which have set the stage for a remarkable electoral contest.

The 288-member assembly, the second largest in India after Uttar Pradesh, will witness a direct confrontation between the ruling MahaYuti (Grand Alliance) and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), following notable changes in political dynamics over the last five years.

Key contestants and alliances

The ruling MahaYuti coalition, spearheaded by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena, along with the BJP and the NCP faction led by Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar, is relying on its flagship welfare initiative, the Ladki Bahin Yojana. This program, which allocates Rs 1,500 monthly to impoverished women, is anticipated to be a potential "game changer," aiming to benefit 2.5 crore individuals, which constitutes over half of the state's 4.5 crore women voters.

Conversely, the MVA, which includes the Congress, Sharad Pawar's NCP faction and Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena (UBT), is strategising to mount a challenge against the ruling coalition. Both alliances are yet to finalise their seat-sharing arrangements and the forthcoming election will serve as a test of their capacity to mobilise votes among their respective bases, particularly in light of recent divisions.

Political landscape

The political landscape in Maharashtra has undergone substantive transformation since the 2019 Lok Sabha and Maharashtra assembly elections, marked by the disintegration of pre-election alliances and the formation of new governments. The alliance between the Shiv Sena and BJP collapsed over the issue of chief ministership, resulting in the establishment of the MVA government under Uddhav Thackeray, which was subsequently dismantled by Eknath Shinde's rebellion in 2022.

With Shinde, supported by the BJP, assuming the role of chief minister, the splits within the Shiv Sena and NCP, both officially recognised by the EC, have further complicated the state's political scenario.

Emphasis on regional concerns

Although the MVA achieved notable success in the recent Lok Sabha elections by securing 30 out of Maharashtra's 48 seats, in contrast to the MahaYuti's 17, analysts predict that the upcoming assembly poll will center around state and local matters. Key topics anticipated to dominate the campaign include the Maratha quota movement, agricultural distress, unemployment, inflation and issues related to law and order.

The recent murder of NCP leader Baba Siddique during Dussehra has already prompted opposition criticism regarding public safety and governance, particularly targeting Home Minister Devendra Fadnavis.

The murder of #BabaSiddique has once again highlighted the pathetic #LawAndOrder situation in #Maharashtra, which hasn't improved in three decades! pic.twitter.com/lI15tDjqdq

— The Squirrels (@thesquirrelsin) October 14, 2024

Government initiatives and popular policies

In an effort to attract voters, the Shinde administration has introduced a range of populist initiatives in the lead-up to the hustings. In the past two weeks, the government has enacted 1,500 decisions, including a toll exemption for light motor vehicles at five entry points into Mumbai. The Rs 46,000-crore Ladki Bahin Yojana stands out as a significant strategy aimed at appealing to female voters. Despite rumors of Ajit Pawar potentially leaving the ruling coalition, he has chosen to remain, thereby reinforcing the MahaYuti's standing.

Opposition's approach

The MVA is concentrating on exposing governance shortcomings and addressing issues that affect the electorate, such as the collapse of a statue of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj in Sindhudurg district and the ongoing Maratha quota agitation, which contributed immensely to the MahaYuti's disappointing performance in the Lok Sabha poll. Congress leader Ratnakar Mahajan has pointed out that the BJP is experiencing a decline in its voter support and the opposition intends to persist in advocating for issues that resonate with the public.

Historical context and 2019 results

The EC has declared that the polling for the assembly will occur on November 20 in a single phase, with the counting of votes set for November 23. Additionally, the Nanded Lok Sabha by-election, prompted by the passing of Congress MP Vasant Chavan, will take place on the same date.

In the 2019 assembly poll, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerged as the predominant party, securing 105 seats while its then-partner Shiv Sena obtained 56 seats. The Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), both contesting 125 seats, achieved 44 and 54 seats, respectively. With the major political alliances now restructured, the forthcoming election is anticipated to be a considerable determinant of Maharashtra's political landscape.

Issues raised by BJP in Jharkhand

In anticipation of the Jharkhand assembly election, the Bharatiya Janata Party has activated its senior leadership to present a formidable challenge to the current government led by Hemant Soren and the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM). Notable figures, including Union Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan and Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, have united to enhance the campaign's momentum.

Leading this initiative are key state leaders of the BJP, such as Babulal Marandi, Amar Bauri, Arjun Munda, Bidyut Baran Mahato, Deepak Prakash, Manish Jaiswal, Dhullu Mahato and Champai Soren, a former JMM member who has recently aligned with the BJP.

The BJP's approach focuses on highlighting the alleged shortcomings of the JMM administration. The Soren government is under scrutiny for various issues, including increasing unemployment, slow infrastructure progress and pervasive corruption.

Once praised for its initiatives aimed at tribal welfare, the JMM is now facing accusations of mismanagement. Despite its claims of fostering economic growth, the government is perceived to have underperformed, leading to widespread voter discontent.

BJP state president and former Chief Minister Babulal Marandi has articulated these grievances. "This government has not only failed to fulfill its commitments but also obstructed the state's advancement," Marandi remarked at a rally, asserting, "Jharkhand deserves better and, under the BJP, we will ensure genuine development."

At the national level, BJP Member of Parliament Nishikant Dubey conveyed his assurance regarding the party's success in the forthcoming Jharkhand poll. Speaking from New Delhi, he committed to restoring land that had been appropriated from tribal communities by Muslims. Dubey asserted, "The BJP will secure a two-thirds majority to establish the government in Jharkhand."

Dubey pointed out demographic shifts, indicating a reduction in the tribal population alongside a rise in the Muslim population, which he attributed to the influx of Bangladeshi migrants. Dubey vowed to enforce the National Register of Citizens (NRC) to tackle this concern.

Champai Soren's switch to BJP

A notable political development this season is Champai Soren's transition from the JMM to the BJP. Champai, a noticeable figure in the Kolhan region with substantial tribal backing, is regarded as a strategic asset for the BJP. His shift is perceived as a considerable setback for the JMM's support among tribal voters.

Champai has consistently advocated for tribal identity and has raised concerns regarding issues such as illegal immigration. His decision to join the BJP enhances the party's engagement with tribal communities and casts doubt on the JMM's influence over this vital demographic.

BJP's campaign

The BJP is dedicated to establishing a robust grassroots presence. Party members are actively coordinating rallies and events throughout the state to engage directly with voters and counter the influence of the JMM. Furthermore, the BJP is leveraging social media platforms extensively to expand its outreach, critique the current government and mobilise online support.

Comprehensive appeal

While the JMM has historically depended on tribal backing, the BJP seeks to forge a more extensive coalition. The party is positioning itself as inclusive, targeting urban constituents, non-tribal groups and young professionals.

Leaders such as Bidyut Baran Mahato are bolstering the BJP's appeal in urban regions while individuals like Manish Jaiswal and Dhullu Mahato are focusing on grassroots efforts to ensure that the party's emphasis on governance, employment and development resonates with a varied electorate.

Wayanad to usher in an unprecedented scene in Parliament

Priyanka Gandhi-Vadra is expected to make her electoral debut from the Wayanad constituency, which was previously held by her brother, Rahul Gandhi, a prominent Congress leader. He vacated this seat after securing election to the Lok Sabha from Raebareli in Uttar Pradesh during the general election earlier this year.

On Tuesday, the EC announced by-polls for the Wayanad Lok Sabha seat in Kerala, as well as for the Nanded seat in Maharashtra.

According to the EC's announcement, the Wayanad elections will take place on November 13, coinciding with by-polls for 47 assembly seats across 15 states. Additionally, the first phase of assembly elections in Jharkhand is scheduled for November 13. The results for the Wayanad seat, along with other assembly and Lok Sabha seats, will be revealed on November 23.

In June, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge declared that Rahul Gandhi would retain his traditional seat of Raebareli while vacating Wayanad, where the party intends to nominate Priyanka Gandhi.

Following this announcement, Priyanka expressed her enthusiasm, stating, "I am very pleased to represent Wayanad and I will ensure that they do not feel his (Rahul Gandhi's) absence. I will dedicate myself to making everyone content and serving as a commendable representative. My connection with Raebareli and Amethi is longstanding and unbreakable. I will support my brother in Raebareli. We will both be present in Raebareli and Wayanad."

Regarding Priyanka's candidacy, Rahul Gandhi expressed his confidence in her success, stating, "Priyanka Gandhi is set to contest the poll and I am certain that she will emerge victorious. The people of Wayanad can consider themselves represented by two members of Parliament: my sister and myself. My doors are always open to the people of Wayanad; I hold affection for each individual in Wayanad."

If Priyanka Gandhi secures victory in this Lok Sabha by-poll, she will become the third Member of Parliament from the Gandhi family in the present Parliament. Rahul Gandhi serves as the Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha while Sonia Gandhi is a member of the Rajya Sabha.