Escalating tensions: Israel-Iran conflict intensifies as diplomacy falters

The ongoing Israel-Iran conflict has entered its eighth day, marked by relentless missile exchanges, significant civilian and military casualties and growing international concern over the potential for a broader regional war. What began on June 13, with Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites, has escalated into a full-scale aerial conflict, with both nations showing little willingness to back down.

The war has drawn global attention, with United States President Donald Trump signalling a decision on American involvement within the next two weeks, while European diplomats scramble to broker peace in Geneva.

Intensified military engagements

On Thursday, June 19, Israel conducted a series of airstrikes targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, including the Arak heavy water reactor (now called Khondab) and the Natanz nuclear facility. The Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) confirmed that at least 40 warplanes were involved in overnight operations, striking over 40 sites across Iran. Israeli officials claim these attacks have significantly set back Iran’s nuclear program, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stating that the strikes have pushed Iran’s nuclear ambitions back “a very, very long time.”

In retaliation, Iran launched a barrage of ballistic missiles and drones targeting Israeli cities, including a direct hit on the Soroka Medical Centre in Beersheba, southern Israel’s largest hospital. The attack, which occurred early Thursday morning, injured 271 people, with 71 sustaining minor injuries at the hospital alone. The IDF accused Iran of using cluster munitions, a move described as deliberately targeting civilians. Another missile struck a residential high-rise near Tel Aviv, causing significant damage and further escalating tensions.

Iran’s state media claimed the primary target was an IDF command and intelligence headquarters in the Gav-Yam Technology Park, not the hospital, though the civilian toll has drawn widespread condemnation. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in a televised address on June 18, rejected calls for surrender and warned that any US intervention would prompt Iran to target American assets in the region.

US involvement looms large

President Donald Trump has kept the world on edge with mixed signals regarding US involvement. During a Situation Room meeting on June 18, Trump and his advisors discussed options for supporting Israel without triggering a full-scale regional war. Sources indicate that the US is considering supplying bunker-busting bombs to target Iran’s underground nuclear facilities but is wary of direct military engagement. On Thursday, the White House announced that Trump would decide within two weeks whether the US would join Israel’s campaign.

Trump’s rhetoric has been characteristically bold, with claims that the US has “complete and total control of the skies over Iran.” However, Iran’s delegation to the United Nations dismissed his calls for “unconditional surrender” as “absurd rhetoric,” asserting that Iran will not negotiate under duress. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council warned that a “third party” joining Israel would face a “different strategy,” hinting at retaliatory strikes against US bases in Iraq and other regional allies.

Diplomatic efforts, global reactions

As military actions intensify, diplomatic efforts to halt the conflict are underway but face significant hurdles. On Friday, June 20, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with British, French, German, and EU diplomats in Geneva to explore a potential ceasefire. However, expectations for a breakthrough remain low, as Iran insists it will not accept “imposed peace.” European leaders, sidelined in the conflict, are pushing for a binding agreement to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, but Israel’s ongoing strikes complicate these efforts.

Russia, a key ally of Iran, has warned against US military intervention, with the head of Rosatom cautioning that an Israeli strike on Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant could lead to a “Chernobyl-style catastrophe.” The Kremlin’s spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, described talk of regime change in Iran as “unimaginable,” warning that targeting Khamenei would fuel extremism.

Meanwhile, Iran’s “Axis of Resistance”—including Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi militias—has threatened retaliation against US and Israeli targets if the conflict escalates further. Hezbollah, however, has refrained from direct involvement, citing domestic pressure in Lebanon to avoid dragging the country into war.

Humanitarian impact

The human toll of the conflict is mounting. Iran reports over 240 deaths and 1,277 injuries, though these figures are likely underreported due to tight media controls. In Israel, missile strikes have caused at least 24 deaths and nearly 600 injuries since the conflict began. The attack on Bat Yam, south of Tel Aviv, killed a 7-year-old Ukrainian girl who had fled to Israel for medical treatment, prompting outrage and calls for accountability.

The conflict has also prompted mass evacuations. Israel issued warnings for residents near Iran’s nuclear facilities to evacuate, while Iran ordered evacuations around Israeli media outlets Channel 12 and Channel 14 in response to attacks on its state television. India successfully evacuated 110 students from Tehran to Armenia, with the first flight landing in Delhi on June 19.

Precarious future

As the war progresses, both sides face logistical challenges. Israel’s missile interception system, while advanced, is depleting its stockpile faster than it can replenish, raising concerns about long-term sustainability. Iran, meanwhile, struggles to coordinate large-scale missile strikes due to Israeli pressure, with a noticeable decrease in missile launches in recent days.

The international community remains divided. While the US and UK express support for Israel’s efforts to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions, figures like German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Iraqi leader Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani advocate for diplomacy to avoid catastrophic regional consequences.

With no clear end in sight, the Israel-Iran conflict risks drawing in additional powers and destabilising the Middle East further. As Trump’s decision looms and diplomatic talks falter, the world watches anxiously, hoping for a resolution to avert a broader catastrophe.