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In less than a week’s time, a conflict ongoing for the last three years is being ‘settled’ with most of the major players involved in it being left without a seat on the high-stakes poker table. The US has been playing on one side of the game – Ukraine’s – since the war with Russia started. Billions of dollars of aid and weaponry have flowed from the US as well as European treasuries. With Trump now the card dealer, the rules of the game have been quickly and unilaterally rewritten. The White House, once the go-to place for Ukraine’s Zelenskyy, is now calling him an ‘unelected dictator’ and a ‘modestly successful comedian’ with very low popularity ratings. All this is from Trump, who is directly dealing with Russian president Putin, who is widely considered to be the unelected dictator that the US president described Zelenskyy as.
Trump, Russia-Ukraine war & EU
The fact that this resolution attempt is happening without Trump even consulting American allies in Europe implies two things, both in line with Trump’s MAGA political and foreign policy outlook. European nations, as EU and UK, are left high and dry by the US, which they always saw as a strong economic and strategic ally. But now, as geopolitics guru Kishore Mahbubani wrote in Foreign Policy magazine, EU is now appearing to be licking the boots that are kicking it in the face. The confused non-strategy that the European nations have shown after Trump’s Russia-Ukraine move certainly reinforces that impression. This, when it is Europe that will be worst hit by an expansionist Putin, who will get exactly what he wants and more, if Trump has his way – and by all accounts, it looks like he will. Trump has made it clear: he has said there is a ‘big beautiful ocean’ between Russia, Ukraine, and the US, but not Europe.
The Future of NATO
All this will also mean that NATO, one of the longest-running and economically and strategically strongest alliances of nations, could well be dead and gone. The Trump administration has made it amply clear that it will not ‘pay’ to keep the world safe on its dollar. Trump has repeatedly used the word ‘unfair’ to describe the money the US contributes to NATO and other alliances and has asked other nations to pump up their part. There are several figures, especially in the context of Ukraine, that show the EU spent more than the US, but the angle of attack is simply that the US will spend its own money on itself.
A deal with China?
If indeed the US cools off on Russia, once seen as the main enemy, its main target is likely to become China, which wants to rival and then overtake America’s economic, technological, strategic, and ‘friend of the world’ position. Even though Trump has painted a big tariff bullseye on Beijing’s back, he has of late softened his tone. To the extent that he has said a trade is ‘possible’ with China, despite the tension in relations. “It's possible, it's possible,” Trump told reporters when asked about a likely deal.
So where does all this leave India?
The prime minister has met Trump, among one of the first few world leaders. The US and India have had fraught relations with some very smooth patches but overall, the tone has been positive. This visit too saw its positives and negatives. The positives being the continued personal friendship between the two leaders and some quick defense and technology agreements with the promise of eventually closing a long-elusive trade deal. The negatives were the inclusion of India on the tariff list and the irritant of returning illegal migrants in handcuffs and chains, that set off a domestic political storm.
Despite an evident closeness to Washington, India still needs to keep its caution up and situational awareness high. Take the way that the US is apparently abandoning the EU, its U-turn on Russia, and how it deals with China. The first shows that the US can’t be taken on face value as a reliable and trusted friend. India has had several rounds of friend/unfriend with the US over the years. With a more unipolar world emerging after the collapse of the USSR, New Delhi has built bridges with Washington. But none of these bridges are safe being burnt.
Take the Russia situation. India has gone all-in with Moscow with cheap oil supplies when it was facing sanctions for the Ukraine war. Now the Trump administration has forced the Modi government’s hand to buy crude from the US. Will that make the Indian crude basket more expensive and hike pump prices?
With China too, India was seen as a defensive bulwark in the Asia geopolitical space against Beijing. But if Trump does get serious about a trade deal with China, will Delhi lose its importance in the scheme of things? If the tariffs continue as they are, then India is really hoping to gain from the China+1 trade and manufacturing formula which it couldn’t fully exploit earlier. A lot of smaller countries, like Vietnam, made those gains, but now face higher tariffs.
Will Trump live up to his word?
A lot will depend on Trump actually following up on the statements he makes. Already, analysts are saying not to take the China deal possibility too seriously, calling it an ‘off the cuff’ remark. And even more will depend on how the American economy performs. Already there are signs of stress. Inflation in the US is on an uptick, latest monthly data has shown. Add to this the pressure of tariffs and trade wars that will follow will kick in. As a warning sign, Walmart, which is one of the biggest retailers in the world, has shown conservative forecasts of lower-than-expected profits, Bloomberg has reported, saying that the retail giant acknowledged ‘uncertainties (in) consumer behavior and global and geopolitical conditions’. Simply put: they are unsure if consumers will pay higher prices for imported goods or those manufactured in the US if global tariffs continue.