Bihar election 2025 opinion poll: NDA holds edge as INDIA struggles

A new opinion poll on the Bihar Assembly elections shows a close contest between the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A). The survey, conducted by Ascend India Strategies, suggests the NDA is slightly ahead, while voter sentiment reflects deep divisions on leadership, caste dynamics and development.

The findings, Amitabh Tiwari explains to Bhupendra Chaubey in the video above, indicate that Bihar is heading for a tight race, with no side assured of a sweeping victory. The results also reveal strong regional variations, with different alliances enjoying dominance in specific areas.

NDA leads in projected seat share

The poll projects that the NDA could secure a lead in seat share, though not by a landslide. Support for the alliance appears strongest in regions where Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar retain personal influence.

However, the INDIA bloc continues to maintain a sizeable base. The survey shows that Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress together hold ground in several constituencies, particularly in areas dominated by Yadav and Muslim voters.

The seat projections suggest a hung assembly remains possible, keeping the door open for post-poll manoeuvres.

Voter preferences on leadership

Leadership remains a decisive factor in Bihar’s election. The poll highlights strong approval ratings for Narendra Modi as the preferred national leader, even among voters otherwise critical of the NDA government in the state.

Nitish Kumar’s personal popularity has declined but he continues to be regarded as an experienced administrator. Tejashwi Yadav of the RJD is emerging as the most popular opposition face, especially among younger voters and minority groups.

This contrast in leadership perceptions may shape the final outcome, with Modi’s appeal counterbalancing local dissatisfaction.

Caste dynamics and social alliances

Caste remains at the heart of Bihar’s politics. The survey shows that the NDA continues to draw significant support from upper castes, Kurmis and sections of the Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs).

The INDIA bloc retains dominance among Yadavs and Muslims, who form a sizeable vote bank. Dalit support appears fragmented, with Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party faction gaining traction among younger Dalit voters.

These divisions suggest that no alliance can claim universal support, making coalition arithmetic crucial.

Development versus unemployment

The survey indicates that development remains a top concern, with roads, electricity and education cited as improvements under the NDA. However, unemployment is seen as a major problem, particularly among rural youth.

Rising prices and migration also feature as significant worries. Many respondents expressed frustration with the lack of local job opportunities, forcing families to depend on remittances from outside the state, but they said that the era of Lalu Prasad Yadav's direct and proxy rule was worse.

The I.N.D.I.A. appears to be gaining ground on these issues, presenting itself as more responsive to livelihood concerns.

Regional divides in voting trends

Voting preferences differ across Bihar’s regions. In north Bihar, the I.N.D.I.A. shows resilience, especially in Muslim and Yadav-dominated areas. In central and south Bihar, the NDA’s advantage is clearer, buoyed by Nitish Kumar’s legacy of development programmes.

Urban voters lean more towards the NDA, citing infrastructure gains, while rural voters are more divided, with caste and community ties influencing choices.

This regional fragmentation ensures that both alliances face challenges in securing a majority.

Outlook for the election campaign

The Bihar Assembly election campaign is expected to intensify as alliances refine their strategies. The poll underlines that while the NDA has an edge, voter dissatisfaction on jobs and governance remains a risk.

The I.N.D.I.A. has a chance to close the gap if it can unify its message and mobilise its core supporters. Smaller parties, including those led by Chirag Paswan and Upendra Kushwaha, may play a decisive role if the contest results in a hung assembly.

Both alliances are expected to sharpen their narratives on leadership, caste and development. The survey findings suggest Bihar is heading for one of its most competitive elections in recent memory.