Bihar exit polls predict decisive NDA lead in Bihar, opposition trails

Exit polls published on 11 November pointed overwhelmingly to a comfortable lead for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the Bihar Assembly elections, with most major firms projecting the ruling coalition above the 122-seat majority mark. The surveys, released as phase-2 voting concluded, showed a broad consensus that the NDA was set to outperform the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) across much of the state.

A “poll of polls” compiled by several newsrooms and analysts suggested the NDA could secure between roughly 130 and 170 seats in the 243-member Assembly, depending on the survey and modelling assumptions. Projections for the MGB clustered in a far lower band, generally between 70 and 110 seats, while new entrants such as Jan Suraaj were predicted to win few, if any, seats in most estimates.

Exit poll numbers, survey by survey

POLSTRAT–People’s Insight, Chanakya Strategies, Matrize (IANS), JVC and several other houses released detailed exit-polls showing a consistent pattern: NDA advantage across districts of north and central Bihar, with the BJP often predicted to emerge as the single largest party within the alliance. POLSTRAT’s headline projection placed the NDA in the 133–143 range, while Chanakya published estimates near 128–134 seats. The IANS–Matrize model gave an even stronger showing for the ruling bloc, with some runs forecasting as many as 153–164 seats.

People’s Pulse, Dainik Bhaskar and other regional pollsters produced similar verdicts: Dainik Bhaskar’s poll placed the NDA roughly between 145 and 160 seats, with the MGB at about 73–91. Smaller trackers such as TIF Research, P-Marq and DV Research echoed the sweep narrative, estimating negligible gains for Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj in most scenarios.

Vote-share estimates varied by poll but showed a recurring pattern: NDA vote share commonly in the mid-40s (around 41–49 per cent) and MGB in the high 30s (around 37–40 per cent). In several models this vote-share gap translated into substantial seat bonuses for the NDA because of geographic concentration and seat-level advantages. Analysts cautioned that turnout differences and late swings could still change outcomes at a constituency level.

Interpretation, caveats, implications

Exit polls measure voters leaving booths and apply models to convert responses into seats; they are not final results. Past Bihar contests have shown that exit polls can misjudge late swings or local candidates’ personal vote, so newsroom editors urged caution even as many declared a probable NDA win. The Election Commission’s official count on 14 November will provide the authoritative outcome.

Regional variation emerged in the projections. Several surveys indicated stronger NDA performance in rural and semi-urban belts, while the MGB retained pockets of strength in specific districts where caste coalitions and local dynamics favoured its candidates. Pollsters noted that turnout patterns and SIR-driven roll revisions may have amplified or reduced apparent advantages in different areas.

Political implications of a poll-predicted NDA victory were debated immediately. A large ruling-alliance majority would strengthen the BJP–JD(U) bargaining position in government formation and could marginalise smaller opposition partners. Observers also noted that an expected disappointment for debutant platforms such as Jan Suraaj would reshape the narrative about new alternative forces in Bihar politics.

A final note on method and reliability. Several agencies used different sample sizes, weighting schemes and turnout adjustments; hence the range of projected seats. Exit polls remain a snapshot of the mood at polling time, sensitive to fieldwork quality, question wording and model assumptions. For definitive results, readers should await the official tally on count day.