Karnataka caste survey puts Congress in a quandary

The findings of the Karnataka caste survey, which reportedly challenge the conventional understanding of the populations of Lingayats and Vokkaligas, have created significant unrest throughout the state. Ministers representing both caste groups have called on the Indian National Congress government to dismiss these results and initiate a new survey, threatening protests if their demands are not met.

This caste survey was carried out by the previous Congress administration in 2015, and Chief Minister Siddaramaiah is facing mounting pressure to disclose the results. This urgency is heightened by the central leadership's commitment to a nationwide caste-based census as part of their manifesto for the upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha elections, with Rahul Gandhi championing the initiative.

The survey report, which is set to be presented to cabinet ministers in a special meeting on April 17, has already been leaked. It indicates that Other Backward Classes constitute 70% of the state's population, with the Muslim demographic at 12.87%, Scheduled Castes at 18.27%, and Scheduled Tribes at 7.16%. These figures align closely with the 2011 census, where 98% of Muslims identified as OBC.

Statistics

According to the report, the Vokkaliga population is estimated at 10.31% and the Lingayat population at 11.09%, both figures significantly lower than the community's claims of 15% and 35%, respectively, as well as traditional estimates of 12-14% and 17-19%. Collectively, these groups represent at least 30% of the population. The Brahmin community is estimated to be 2.61% of the population, while they assert their numbers are between 6% and 7%. These three influential groups appear to be considerably smaller than their assertions suggest.

The overall reservation allocation is anticipated to rise to 85%, increasing from 51% (previously 32%) for OBCs. Within this framework, Muslims are expected to receive 8% (up from 4%), Vokkaligas 7%, and Lingayats 8%, according to reports. Reservations for Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes will remain at 17% and 7%, respectively, along with an additional 10% reservation for the Economically Weaker Section.

In 2023, the Congress successfully garnered support from the Lingayat community for the first time since the abrupt ousting of the Veerendra Patil government in 1990 by Rajiv Gandhi. A total of 34 Lingayat MLAs were elected on Congress tickets, nearly doubling the BJP's count of 19. In contrast, during the 2018 elections, only 16 Congress MLAs were from the Lingayat community, while the BJP had 38.

Vokkaligas-Lingayats dominate

Additionally, the Congress also managed to attract Vokkaliga voters for the first time since the emergence of the JD(S), largely due to the efforts of DK Shivakumar, the current deputy chief minister. The party secured 23 Vokkaliga seats, almost twice its 2018 performance, and surpassed the BJP and JD(S), which won 11 and 10 seats, respectively.

In 2023, 42% of Congress MLAs identified as either Vokkaliga or Lingayat, an increase from 34% in 2018. For the BJP and JD(S), these figures stood at 45% and 63%.

How it was in 2023

The Congress received 49% of the Vokkaliga vote, a 22% increase, and 29% of the Lingayat vote, an 11% rise. There are 44 Vokkaliga-influenced and 70 Lingayat-influenced seats in the state, with Congress winning over 60% of these (29% and 44%, respectively). In 2018, the party had only captured 25% of these seats.

The caste survey has not only disrupted the caste dynamics within the state but has also impacted the Congress. DK Shivakumar convened a meeting with Vokkaliga legislators to address the contentious survey. Congress MLA Basavaraj Shivaganga criticised his party's Lingayat ministers for failing to advocate for their community regarding the survey, calling for resignations and commending DK Shivakumar.

Acknowledging the caste survey could diminish the negotiating power of both the Lingayat and Vokkaliga communities. Notably, the Kuruba community, from which Chief Minister Siddaramaiah originates, constitutes 7% of the population, consistent with earlier estimates. Political speculation suggests that the Chief Minister may be attempting to undermine the influence of MB Patil and DK Shivakumar, prominent leaders from the Lingayat and Vokkaliga communities, through this survey.

Fallout

This situation arises as the DK Shivakumar faction insists on fulfilling the alleged promise of a "rotational chief minister." The Congress must proceed carefully, considering the pressures from religious leaders as well as from Lingayat and Vokkaliga MLAs and ministers. Additionally, Brahmins are expressing their discontent. It remains to be seen how the developments surrounding the caste survey will play out in the state.