'Muslim apathy' doesn’t matter: Zaffar Sareshwala

A strange thing is happening in the Lok Sabha elections of 2024. This rarely happened in the history of Indian democracy: Muslims don't appear to be voting enthusiastically. Data shows that the turnout in Muslim-dominated constituencies kept rising through the elections of 2009, 2014 and 2019, but this time, in most of them, it has dipped.

In all Muslim-dominated seats, the voter turnout in 2024 is less than what it was in 2019 and before. This is a clear pattern that has emerged from the 11 seats of Uttar Pradesh and three of Bihar that have voted already.

Are Muslims not excited about this vote? Does the data mean that the Muslim voters are not excited about the 2024 election? Or is it that the Muslims are still voting in large numbers but other communities aren’t, which is why the total figure has dropped?

The Muslim vote holds the key in Rampur (50.57%), Moradabad (47.12%), Bijnor (43.04%), Saharanpur (41.95%), Muzaffarnagar (41.30%), Amroha (40.78%), Balrampur (37.51%), Bareilly (34.54%), Meerut (34.43%), Bahraich (33.53%), Shrawasti (30.79%), Baghpat (27.98%), Ghaziabad (25.35%) and Siddharthnagar (29.23%) in UP.

Muslims play a crucial role in Seemanchal and the geographical arc that stretches from Kishanganj in eastern Bihar to Kashi (Varanasi) in eastern UP. This region, which runs along the India-Nepal border, covers more than 20 constituencies with a significant Muslim population ranging from 18% to 70%.

Seats dominated by Muslims in 2009, 14 and 19

In 2009, this was the result from Uttar Pradesh:

In 2014, this result came out:

 And in 2019, the result was this:

Within UP, the Muslim-dominated seats of Amroha, Bijnor, Moradabad, Muzaffarnagar, Nagina, Rampur, Saharanpur and Sambhal went to either the Samajwadi Party or the alliance it was a part of when the voter turnout was high in these constituencies.

When the Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party and the Congress fought one another, the BJP won even Muslim-dominated seats in 2019, indicating a split of the Muslim vote.

The BJP won 62 of 80 Lok Sabha seats in UP without fielding a single Muslim candidate in 2019. Out of these, five seats are those that have more than 40% share of Muslims in the population.

In addition to constituencies with significant Muslim populations, there are a minimum of 19 Lok Sabha seats where Muslims make up 30-40% of the population and 48 seats where they constitute 20-30% of the population.

The BJP has performed well in these 67 seats. Analyses of the two previous Lok Sabha elections said that the consolidation of Hindu votes by the saffron party rendered Muslim votes ineffective. But what if Hindus are not consolidated in 2024?

Interestingly, even in 2009, without a ‘Modi wave’, the BJP won 18 of these seats where the Muslim population ranged from 30-40% and 20-30%, respectively.

During the 2014 Lok Sabha election, the BJP secured victory in 39 of these 67 seats.

In the 2019 election, the BJP once again emerged victorious in 39 of these constituencies.

Recall that Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently remarked: “How long will the Muslim community think in terms of putting someone on the throne or dethroning someone? Should they not think that if they don’t change their mindset, then future generations of the community may suffer.” So, has PM Modi been successful in moulding Muslim minds?