NDA leads in Bihar pre-poll surveys, MGB trails across regions

With the first round of voting over, a series of pre-poll surveys point to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), maintaining a clear lead over the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) in Bihar. The findings from four separate
agencies — POLSTRAT-People’s Insight, IANS-Matrize, Chanakya Strategies, and JVC — indicate that the Janata Dal (United)-BJP alliance could return to power with a comfortable majority, though regional factors may
still alter the outcome in the remaining phase.

NDA leads across surveys

According to the POLSTRAT-People’s Insight survey, the NDA is projected to secure between 133 and 143 of the 243 Assembly seats, while the MGB is estimated to win 93 to 102 seats. Within the NDA, the BJP could win
70 to 72 seats, JD(U) 53 to 56, and Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) 10 to 12. The MGB’s seat share is expected to include 69 to 72 for the RJD, 10 to 13 for the Congress, and 14 to 15 for Left parties. Smaller groups such as Jan Suraaj, AIMIM, Rashtriya Lok Morcha, and VIP are likely to secure a few seats each.

The Chanakya Strategies poll suggests a similar trend, giving the NDA 128 to 134 seats and the MGB 102 to 108.

The IANS-Matrize survey shows a stronger tilt toward the ruling bloc, estimating 153 to 164 seats for the NDA and 76 to 87 for the MGB.

The JVC poll forecasts the NDA at 131 to 150 seats and the opposition bloc at 81 to 103.

Vote share projections hover between 45% and 49% for the NDA, while the MGB trails with 38% to 40%. Analysts attribute the NDA’s advantage to Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s renewed alliance with the BJP, the party’s extensive organisational machinery, and the perceived stability of the coalition. However, observers also caution that Bihar’s volatile caste alignments, candidate choices, and localised issues could still influence the final outcome.

While most indicators favour the NDA, the MGB remains within striking distance if it can consolidate its support among the backward and minority voters before the next round of polling. For now, the data across all major opinion polls suggest one pattern — the NDA enters the decisive phase of Bihar’s elections with the upper hand, but the final verdict is still open.