NDA makes stunning gains in Muslim-dominated constituencies in Bihar

Early counting trends from the 2025 Bihar assembly elections indicate that the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has captured significant victories in several Muslim-majority constituencies, which until recently were considered strongholds of the opposition Mahagathbandhan. The shift has raised questions about voter behaviour and the underlying dynamics within key regions of the state.

The trend is especially marked in Seemanchal—a belt comprising Kishanganj, Katihar, Araria and Purnia districts—where Muslim voters form a substantial portion of the electorate. Although full results are still being tabulated, early leads show the NDA gaining in seats where the Mahagathbandhan had expected to dominate.

On the EC website as of 1:32 PM:

What numbers show

According to live-updates published during counting, the BJP-and-JD(U)-led NDA was leading on more than 150 seats in the 243-member Assembly, while the Mahagathbandhan trailed considerably. In the Muslim-dominated seats, the reversal in expected results has been deemed significant by observers.

In Seemanchal, for instance, where one district records over two-thirds Muslim electorate, the NDA’s performance was ahead of expectations. The opposition’s failure to convert that demographic strength into leads underscores the challenge facing its leadership.

Possible reasons behind the shift

One key factor appears to be a split in the traditional vote-bank of the Mahagathbandhan. In Seemanchal, younger Muslim voters were reported to be reconsidering long-standing loyalties, partly driven by local discontent and partly by the entry of alternative parties. A survey of voters in the region found resentment over perceived neglect in political representation.

Another dimension is the NDA’s strategic recalibration. Reports suggest the alliance reduced reliance on broad caste-based engineering and instead targeted seats where Muslim and other minority votes were not monolithic and could be challenged. The change in strategy may have contributed to the surprise gains.

Opposition under pressure

The Mahagathbandhan, led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress, had banking on its traditional “Muslim-Yadav” coalition to hold strong in areas like Seemanchal and parts of Tirhut and Kosi. Early results suggest that expectation has not materialised in key seats, putting the alliance on the back foot.

Political analysts contend that the inability to energise core supporters, combined with vote splitting and improved opposition campaigning, has created headwinds for the opposition.

Implications

If the trends hold, the gains in Muslim-majority seats will further bolster the NDA’s position and could reshape Bihar’s electoral map in the long term. For the opposition, the outcome signals a need to rethink its outreach strategy and voter engagement in regions previously taken for granted.

With full results yet to be declared, the magnitude of the shift remains to be confirmed. What is clear, however, is that voter preferences in Bihar’s Muslim-dominated regions are showing signs of fluidity, and traditional political assumptions may no longer hold safe.