Nitish Kumar vs Tejashwi Yadav: Where's Rahul Gandhi in this bipolar fight?

Bihar's 2025 assembly elections, scheduled for 6 and 11 November with results on 14 November, are shaping up as a classic bipolar contest between Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and Tejashwi Yadav's Mahagathbandhan, amid the emergence of Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj as a potential disruptor.

The 243-seat battle, with nominations opening on 17 October, sees the NDA banking on Nitish's welfare schemes and Modi's charisma, while the opposition focuses on youth jobs and caste justice.

Polls like C-Voter's 2 October survey give NDA a lead with 131-150 seats, but internal rifts and Kishor's appeal add uncertainty. This election tests Nitish's legacy, Congress's fading role, and the impact of smaller allies, while highlighting leaders' records in uplifting SC/ST/OBC/EBC/EWS communities.

NDA's and Mahagathbandhan's prospects

The NDA, comprising BJP, JD(U), LJP(RV), HAM(S), and RLJD, holds a slight edge in polls, with C-Voter projecting 131-150 seats (BJP 66-77, JD(U) 52-58), driven by Nitish's Sushasan and women's schemes like Mukhyamantri Kanya Utthan Yojana. The alliance's unity, sealed on 10 October with the BJP at 101 seats, JD(U) 101, and allies 41, counters opposition disarray.

The Mahagathbandhan, with RJD at 143 seats and Congress 60, faces friendly fights on 12 seats, projecting 90-110, leveraging Tejashwi's job promises.

IANS-Matrize poll shows NDA at 42% vote share vs Mahagathbandhan's 38%, with NDA's welfare focus offsetting anti-incumbency. BJP leader Ravi Shankar Prasad said: "There are 243 seats, and the alliance is contesting on 255 seats."

Is this Nitish Kumar's last election as NDA leader?

Speculation swirls that 2025 may be Nitish's final poll as NDA CM face, given his age (74) and health issues, with the BJP eyeing a post-poll shift. Nitish declared, "I have come back to where I belong," affirming NDA loyalty.

Analysts note his "Pahle bhot bura haal tha" remark signals a farewell, with NDA projecting him as the face but BJP potentially taking over if they outperform JD(U). A Live Cities post asked: "Will Prashant Kishor be the Chirag Paswan of 2020 and upset plans?"

Relevance of the Indian National Congress in Bihar

Congress's role has diminished, contesting 60 seats in Mahagathbandhan, down from 70 in 2020, with polls showing 2-5 wins. Seat-sharing rifts with RJD led to friendly fights, as Akhilesh Prasad Singh said: "Everything has been finalised, only the official announcement is pending."

Congress woos EBCs with 'Atipichhda Nyay Sankalp', but Tejashwi's dominance marginalises it. Sachin Pilot stated, "Rahul Gandhi and Kharge have dedicated this to the people of Bihar."

However, the game plan of the Rahul Gandhi-led party does not appear clear. Are they in the game? Are they content with playing second fiddle to the RJD? Does the Leader of the Opposition even know what it takes to win Bihar? It is a strategy, says Rasheed Kiwai, a senior correspondent on the Congress beat, stressing the currency of the LoP and top Congress campaigner amid its waning influence, in this free-flowing interview with Bhupendra Chaubey.

The X factor: Prashant Kishor

Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj, contesting all 243 seats, is the wildcard, with polls giving 4-6 seats but potential to spoil NDA votes. Kishor said, "Jan Suraaj will either get 10 seats or 150, nothing in between." He alleged BJP coercion on candidates: "Three Jan Suraaj Party candidates in the Bihar elections were coerced into withdrawing."

A Live Cities post stated: "Prashant Kishor X factor बने, तय करेंगे सरकार को, किसकी बनेगी?" Experts see him as "the Chirag Paswan of 2020," upsetting alliances.

Strengths and weaknesses of the allies

Chirag Paswan's LJP(RV): Strengths in Paswan (Dusadh) consolidation (6% votes), 29 seats secured; weaknesses in limited record beyond loyalty, as "outsized demand long on ambition but short on record." Paswan said: "Like a sign from my father."

Jitan Ram Manjhi's HAM-S: Strengths in Mahadalit (Mushahar) appeal (4% votes), six seats; weaknesses in "undervalued" quota, with Manjhi warning: "By giving six seats, they have undervalued us." He said: "We are upset but won’t oppose NDA’s decision."

Upendra Kushwaha's RLJD: Strengths in Kushwaha's (Koeri) base (4% votes), six seats; weaknesses in "sidelined" status, with Kushwaha saying: "Nothing is well in NDA." He warned of repercussions but joined.

Leaders' achievements for the uplift of the underprivileged

Nitish Kumar: Expanded EBC reservations to 18%, launched Mahadalit schemes like free education and housing, boosting NDA's SC/EBC support.

Tejashwi Yadav: As Deputy CM (2015-2017), focused on OBC jobs, promising a caste census for uplift.

Jitan Ram Manjhi (HAM-S): As CM in 2014-2015, launched Mahadalit Vikas Mission for SC/ST welfare, building schools and providing scholarships, but criticised for short tenure and limited impact.

Chirag Paswan (LJP-RV): Inherited Ram Vilas Paswan's legacy of SC empowerment through reservations, but record thin on specific initiatives; focused on Paswan quotas.

Upendra Kushwaha (RLJD): As Union Minister (2014-2018), pushed EBC scholarships and OBC reservations, but accused of caste politics over record.

Prashant Kishor: Through Jan Suraaj, promises EBC-focused policies but no prior record. Overall, leaders' efforts mix reservations with welfare, but critics note limited tangible uplift.