Owasis and MIM in Bihar: a slow burn that could set alight the state's politics

The Battle for Bihar has kicked off officially, with the Prime Minister making his campaign start with a rally in Motihari. Amid the rising political heat of Bihar, centred around the redoing to elections rolls and the spurt in murders and other serious crimes, all parties are keeping an eye to two crucial things. One is the Muslim vote – which side it will go. The second is the role Asaduddin Owaisi and his All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM, or just MIM).

Given the clear cut caste lines around which Bihar’s political battles are fought, the Muslim vote is critical. Vying for it is each side, whether the ruling NDA alliance led by the Janta Dal (United) and supported by the BJP or the opposition Mahagathbandhan of RJD, Congress and smaller local parties including the Left.

Conventional political instinct would suggest that the MIM would be a natural partner of the MGB, given its anti-BJP stand. But like all things conventional, this logic too doesn’t work in Bihar. While Owaisi has approached the RJD supremo Lalu Prasad for a tie-up, the other member in the alliance, the Congress, has opposed this. It says that the MIM is a ‘B-team’ of the BJP and cuts into its minority vote. The real reason, political observers feel, is that the Congress wants to create – or recreate – an alliance of so-called ‘lower’ castes and minorities and is unwilling to risk splitting the Muslim vote with the MIM. There might be some solid reasons for this. Look at what the numbers say from neighbouring Uttar Pradesh. In the 2022 Assembly elections, MIM fought in 95 seats. It was ahead of the Congress in 58 seats. That is  more than 60% of the seats. That one number itself will make the Congress nervous about its prospects if the MIM is part of the MGB.

The RJD on its part too had earlier declined to tie up with Owaisi for the 2024 general elections, where the Congress overall was successful in pulling the minority vote.

MIM's Impact: The Numbers

Take a closer look at the impact that the MIM has had and can have in the state polls. The party’s target is largely in the Seemanchal area, towards the extreme east of the state, bordering West Bengal. This area has a higher Muslim population in the state, one of the reasons why the non-NDA political bloc has been vocally protesting the SIR voter re-verification drive.

MIM made its debut in the 2015 assembly polls, fighting six seats but losing its deposit in five. The sixth too was a wipe-out. In the 2019 Kishanganj by-poll, the MIM got its first success, with its candidate defeating the BJP’s by more than 10,000 votes. Encouraged by this, in the 2020 election, the party fielded 20 candidates as part of an alliance with the BSP and the RLSP and got five wins. All these seats were not only in Seemanchal, but came at the cost of the MGB, which was holding four of the five. This was seen in the secular alliance, particularly the Congress, as ‘vote-cutting’ politics and was partly held responsible for the MGB’s defeat. It is quite another matter though that four of the five MIM winners eventually defected to the RJD, leaving Owaisi’s party with only one MLA.

In the 2022 Gopalganj by-election, it came third with 12,214 votes, which was around 7.5 per cent of the total votes. The BJP won that election by just about 2,000 votes over the RJD’s candidate. This again fuelled the vote-cutting charge against the MIM. But it also showed the value of Owaisi’s ability to pull – or hurt – the vote. In more than 50 seats of the 243 in the assembly, as much as 20 per cent, the MIM got more than 15,000 votes. In a tight election, these numbers are tilt a candidate away from a win or a lose situation. In the 2020 assembly polls, the win margin in as many as 20 per cent of the seats was just 2.5% of the vote share. This was the highest number of close wins in 14 elections.

This is probably also why Lalu Yadav is believed to have kept talks open to get into the MGB, despite the Congress grumbling. Owaisi too is keen on the tie-up, having said so openly. He is also clearly willing to forgive the RJD for poaching his MLAs earlier.

 The political maths is quite simple: there are close to 110 seats, or almost half, in Bihar have a considerable Muslim vote. Owaisi himself is trying to broad-base his appeal beyond his traditional Muslim vote, with his strident anti-Pakistan slogans after the Pahalgam terror attack. He is also looking to break the Muslim-only leader by giving tickets to non-Muslims as well. A Rajput candidate has already been announced and more are understood to follow.

How the MGB will deal with Owaisi will be watched across the political spectrum as the state winds itself up for the elections. Because MIM has often flattered to deceive. Will Bihar be the first real shining star in its still young political journey? Watch this space.