Survey suggests Indians responded to Operation Sindoor, ceasefire differently across groups

Amitabh Tiwari, a political analyst and journalist, discussed the methodology behind a survey on Indian public opinion regarding Prime Minister Narendra Modi's address on Operation Sindoor in an interview with The Squirrels' Bhupendra Chaubey.

Expert's tweet

The questions asked to the surveyed people and how they responded are as follows:

Q1 (Perception War):
- Overwhelming 72.6% believe India won the perception war vs only 8.5% for Pakistan
- Strong consensus across gender groups that India won in the perception war (72-74%)
- Amongst those who feel Pakistan won the perception war, young adults (18-24) score the highest (18% vs just 8.5% overall)
- The 25-34 group is most uncertain (22%)

Q2 (Terror Attack Response):
- Strong approval: 75.5% satisfied with Pahalgam terror attack handling
- Very low dissatisfaction: only 7.7%
- Clear age gradient: satisfaction increases with age
- The 55+ group shows a remarkable 90% satisfaction

Q3 (Ceasefire Opinion):
- The Question with the most divided opinion & with no clear majority
- Almost perfectly split: 39.8% for vs 39.9% against
- Young adults (18-24) are most supportive of a ceasefire (56%)
- 25-34 group most opposed to ceasefire (58%)

Q4 (PM Modi's Speech):
- Majority, 52%, rated PM Modi's post-Operation Sindoor speech as "Good"
- Only 4.5% rated it "Poor
- "High "don't know" (29%) rates suggest limited awareness and also fatigue factor after frequent press conferences by MEA and DGMOs
- Strong age effect: 45-54 group rates highest (68%)

Q5 (Future Response):
- 43.1% prefer precision attacks like Operation Sindoor; 31.2% want to capture POK; Only 19.6% support a full-blown war
- Shows preference for measured, targeted responses
- Most complex response patterns by age - 55+ prefer limited operations (65%); 35-44 favour capturing POK (53%)
- Males prefer targeted operations, females favor POK capture

Overall Patterns:

Age Effects (Most Significant)
- Older respondents (45+) consistently show stronger pro-government positions
- Satisfaction with government: 87-90% for 45+ vs 70-72% for 18-34
- Support for India in perception war: 84-85% for 45+ vs 61-74% for 18-34
- PM Modi speech rating: 63-68% "good" for 45+ vs 35-48% for 18-34

Gender Differences (Moderate)
- Generally modest differences (2-5 percentage points)
- Males are slightly more satisfied with the government response (78% vs 73%)
- Females are slightly more supportive of ceasefires (42% vs 38%)
- Similar views on India winning the perception war (~72-74%)

Operation Sindoor

The survey, conducted by VoteVibe India, aimed to capture demographic patterns in public sentiment, revealing insights into how different age groups and genders perceived the operation and Modi's speech.

Tiwari's interview highlighted the survey's robustness, noting it was demographically representative and covered a wide range of opinions on the government's handling of the situation, the ceasefire, and future responses to terrorism.

The backstory includes India's assertion that Operation Sindoor was a precise strike on terrorist infrastructure, while Pakistan claimed civilian casualties, a dispute that intensified diplomatic rhetoric and public discourse in both nations.

The interview provides context on the survey's significance amid ongoing debates about India's military strategy and its impact on national and international perceptions.

Operation Sindoor, conducted on May 7, targeted terrorist camps in Pakistan following the April 22, Pahalgam attack that killed 26 people, marking a significant escalation in India-Pakistan tensions.