Why Nitish ‘Turncoat’ Kumar has been 'King' of Bihar since 2015

Nitish Kumar, the leader of the Janata Dal (United), has been a pivotal figure in Bihar politics for over two decades. Despite heading a party that is numerically smaller than both the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), his ability to tip the scales in Bihar's closely contested elections has made him indispensable to either side.

2015 assembly election

The 2015 Bihar assembly election was a battle of alliances. On one side was the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), primarily composed of the BJP, Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), and smaller allies. On the other side stood the Mahagathbandhan (MGB), a coalition of the RJD, JD(U), and Congress.

• MGB's victory: The MGB secured 178 seats out of 243, a comfortable majority. The RJD emerged as the largest party, winning 80 seats with a vote share of 18.4%. The JD(U), under chief minister, won 71 seats, while Congress added 27.

• NDA's performance: The NDA, despite the BJP being the single largest party with 53 seats (24.4% vote share), fell short. The LJP and other allies added little to the alliance's tally.

Nitish Kumar's JD(U) might not have been the largest partner in the MGB, but its 71 seats proved crucial to the coalition's majority. This was a testament to the weathercock's appeal across caste and community lines, particularly among the extremely backward classes and women.

2020 assembly election

The dynamics shifted dramatically by the time of the 2020 elections. The JD(U) left the MGB and returned to the NDA, while the RJD led the opposition coalition.

• NDA's narrow win: The NDA secured 125 seats, just above the majority mark. The BJP outperformed its allies, winning 74 seats with a vote share of 19.5%. The JD(U), however, saw its tally shrink to 43 seats, with a vote share of 15.4%. Smaller allies like the VIP and HAM added eight seats.

• MGB's surge: The MGB came close with 110 seats. The RJD emerged as the largest party in the assembly, winning 75 seats with 23.1% of the vote. Congress, however, underperformed, securing only 19 seats.

Despite the JD(U)'s diminished strength, Nitish Kumar retained the Chief Minister's chair, thanks to the BJP's support. This reaffirmed his role as the linchpin in Bihar's coalition politics.

Strategic importance of Nitish Kumar

The numbers from both elections underscore a critical point: neither the BJP nor the RJD has been able to secure a decisive victory in Bihar without the JD(U) as an ally.

• For BJP: The JD(U)'s presence in the NDA bolstered its appeal among Nitish's core constituencies, particularly the extremely backward classes and women. Even in 2020, when the JD(U) won just 43 seats, its support was crucial for the NDA to cross the majority mark.

• For RJD: The MGB's 2015 victory was built on Nitish Kumar's governance credentials, which complemented Lalu Prasad Yadav's social justice appeal. Without the turncoat, the RJD's vote share in 2020 rose, but it couldn't translate into enough seats for a win.

Industry and political complexities

Adding to the intrigue is the Modi government's allegedly favourite industrialist Gautam Adani, who has been investing heavily in Bihar. Despite this, Nitish Kumar seems to be contemplating a return to the RJD-led alliance, a party notorious for its anti-industry stance and its reign during Bihar's dark period marked by kidnappings, extortions, and political murders.

Bihar's special package in the 2024 union budget

The BJP-led central government, recognizing the coalition compulsion, announced a special package for Bihar in the 2024 Union Budget. Yet, uncertainty looms over whether this will suffice to keep Nitish Kumar content within the NDA fold.

Power equation

Both the BJP and the RJD have realized that neither can secure a clear victory in Bihar without JD(U)'s support. Nitish Kumar’s party may be smaller in numbers, but its strategic importance makes it the ultimate kingmaker in Bihar politics. This reality ensures Kumar’s centrality in the state's political landscape, irrespective of the coalition he aligns with.

Kingmaker

Nitish Kumar's JD(U) may no longer dominate Bihar's political landscape, but his ability to swing alliances remains unparalleled. In a state where elections are fiercely contested and margins often narrow, his party's modest yet decisive numbers make him an invaluable ally.

For the BJP, the JD(U) provides the social coalition needed to offset anti-incumbency. For the RJD, Nitish offers administrative credibility and a broader caste appeal.

In the end, Nitish Kumar's significance lies not in the size of his party but in his ability to make or break coalitions. As Bihar's political chessboard evolves, one constant remains: no one can rule Bihar without Nitish Kumar on their side.