Youth factor in politics: Does it work?

Two Japanese words entered the vocabulary of Indian politics: jiu-jistu and aikido. The prompt was some videos on X of Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi rolling about with some youngsters on a mat, apparently teaching them the basics of these two martial arts, believed to have originated in Japan. 

In a tweet, Gandhi said that he encouraged people in his Bharat Jodo Yatra to practice these to stay fit with this “gentle art… to instil in them the value of transforming violence into gentleness, giving them the tools to build a more compassionate and safer society”.

The short videos immediately became viral topics of discussion, with several media outlets doing explainers on what these two martial arts forms were. But there are clear political signals from these videos as well. Though they were hashtagged with National Sports Day, they were released well after they were shot. It is a very apparent positioning of Gandhi as the fit, active and young(er) challenger to the might of Modi. 

Mind you, the prime minister has always been viewed as very light on his feet, moving quickly and always looking sprightly. Not just physically but also in his political communication, which found and still finds great resonance among large parts of the youth. But that was always in comparison to his predecessor, who was non-expressive, miserly in his movements and had poor political communication. 

Now, it is Modi who is the older of the two. The challenger is the young ‘un, who at 54 is 20 years younger than the defender. In purely electoral terms, there is a gap of four general elections between the two. 
But India is not the only one seeing an “ageist” political battle. 

A similar though more convoluted election campaign is going on right now in the United States. The fight began off with the challenger with age on his side. Trump is 78 years old and was facing off with 81-year-old Joe Biden. Though there are only three years between them, Biden’s clearly deteriorating mental health was very visible for all to see. In comparison, Trump looked much younger than his 78 years. But that advantage evaporated as soon as Kamala Harris entered the race at just, in a relative way, 59 years of age. Coming as the vice president, she is a defender of sorts, but given Trump’s political positions and his having been president once, Harris is also positioned as a challenger. 

Harris’s political placement is also playing the surround sound of this age difference, with videos of her singing, dancing and goofing off with friends, colleagues and potential voters. In the US, like in India, there is a big chunk of younger voters (though the number is much larger in India by way of absolutes and percentages). In contrast, Trump is shown as a grumbling, mumbling, complaining old “uncle” – a boomer, term made famous by a very young UK MP Chlöe Swarbrick, who shut down an older fellow MP inside Parliament. 

But there is no guarantee that being a younger challenger (or defender) is any guarantee of political success. In the recent past, the one runaway hit story was Barack Obama, who was in his late 40s when he started his first term and quit in his mid-50s. Obama exhibited his youth on all possible occasions, including his family as well and showcased his very young daughters in public. This allowed him to some extent to get away with his political and administrative follies. 

Rahul Gandhi struggled for nearly two decades

This didn’t work very well for others. In India, Rahul Gandhi had to struggle for years to find some modicum of success in the last elections. Outside of India, take Sanna Marin the prime minister of Finland, who was just 34 when she took charge, only to face defeat after a series of controversies. New Zealand’s Jacinda Adern was only 37 when she became prime minister and went on to win a second term, but quit before her time to take care of her daughter. The most recent example is the UK’s Rishi Sunak, prime minister at 42 but he was left holding the can for a bitter, historic defeat that was inevitable.

Back home in India, youth in politics has always been relative. Given that a lot of our politicians are well-established in senior citizenship, even a mid-50s Rahul Gandhi is seen as young. But the elector is also very aware that politics is a game of experience and silver-heads matter. Just because the country has a huge, young demographic dividend doesn’t guarantee that youth will equal political success. Nothing demonstrates that more than Modi’s two monster-majority terms and the third one that he is running right now.