End of Nitish Kumar, says one journalist; MGB can't win, says another

Ashutosh asserts that Chief Minister Nitish Kumar of Bihar has underperformed following his initial five years in office. Conversely, Awanish Vidyarthi observes that, as the election approaches, Biharis tend to adhere to their traditional voting patterns.

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Senior journalist Ashutosh says Chief Minister of Bihar Nitish Kumar has not performed after his first 5 years in the office, while Awanish Vidyarthi notes that all analyses about the state notwithstanding, as an election draws close, Biharis gravitate towards the same pattern of voting that they have been used to traditionally.

Meanwhile, according to recent opinion polls and surveys conducted this month ahead of the Bihar Legislative Assembly elections (scheduled for November 6 and 11, with results on November 14), the race appears extremely close, with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), comprising the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)), and allies, holding a slight edge over the opposition Mahagathbandhan (also known as the INDIA bloc), led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress, and partners.

However, the contest could swing either way due to factors like vote splitting by emerging players such as Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party (JSP). Tejashwi Yadav (RJD) consistently emerges as the most preferred chief ministerial candidate across polls, often outpacing incumbent Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) by a wide margin.

Key insights

NDA's marginal lead: Polls indicate NDA's vote share or winning probability at around 40-41%, driven by strong support among Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs, ~36% of Bihar's population per the 2023 caste survey) and Other Backward Classes (OBCs), along with effective ticket distribution and campaign momentum. Opposition disunity and JSP's entry (potentially taking 9-13% votes) are seen as benefiting the NDA.

Close contest: The gap between NDA and Mahagathbandhan is often 1-2 percentage points, with some surveys labelling it "too close to call."

Other factors: Voter concerns highlighted in ground reports include unemployment, migration, education, healthcare, floods, roads, and corruption. Women voters (a growing force) may play a decisive role, with policies like reservations influencing preferences.

Fringe or niche surveys: Smaller or online surveys (e.g., from social media or lesser-known agencies like BHARVA or Bihar Tak) show varied results, such as high support for Tejashwi or unexpected JSP dominance, but these lack the sample size and methodology rigour of established polls.

Here's a comparison of the most prominent recent polls:

These polls suggest NDA is positioned to retain power with potentially 120-130 seats in the 243-member assembly (based on historical vote-to-seat translations from 2020, where NDA won 125 seats with ~37% votes), but Mahagathbandhan could cash in on anti-incumbency against Nitish Kumar's governance and Tejashwi's youth appeal.