Bihar polls: Upper castes favourites of both NDA & MGB

An analysis of 494 candidates from the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and Mahagathbandhan (MGB) in Bihar's 2025 assembly elections highlights significant differences in their social composition, reflecting strategic efforts to appeal to specific voter bases amid the bipolar contest. The study, based on a caste database created from Election Commission of India (ECI) data, shows that while both alliances allocate nearly half their tickets to Other Backward Classes (OBCs), MGB has a higher share of Backward Classes (BCs) and Muslims, while NDA fields more Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) and upper castes.

With upper castes over-represented in both groups compared to their population share, the findings underscore Bihar's caste-driven politics, where demographic alignments could determine the outcome in the 243-seat assembly. The report, published on 28 October by Nishant Ranjan, Roshan Kishore, and Abhishek Jha, complements a prior study on Bihar MLAs since 1962, offering insights into alliance strategies as voting begins on 6 November.

Methodology and data source

The analysis utilises ECI data to create a caste database for all NDA and MGB candidates, categorising them into broad social groups: OBCs (split into EBCs and BCs), Scheduled Castes (SCs), Scheduled Tribes (STs), non-SC-ST-OBC (upper castes), and Muslims. It covers 242 NDA candidates (after one rejection) and 252 MGB candidates (after three rejections, with multiple candidates in 12 constituencies due to "friendly fights").

The database draws from Bihar's 2023 caste survey for demographic benchmarks, where EBCs form the largest group but are fragmented at the sub-caste level. The study notes that while issues like development and unemployment dominate, caste remains a key electoral factor.

Overall candidate composition

Across both alliances, BCs have the largest share of candidates, followed by upper castes, SCs (close to the proportion of SC-reserved seats), and Muslims. OBCs account for nearly half the tickets, reflecting their demographic weight in Bihar.

Upper castes are significantly over-represented relative to their population share, indicating their continued influence in political nominations. ST representation remains minimal, aligning with their small demographic footprint.

Differences between NDA and MGB

When comparing the alliances separately, notable disparities emerge. The MGB fields a higher share of BCs, who form a core voter base for RJD, while the NDA prioritises EBCs, Nitish Kumar's key constituency. The NDA has twice as many caste candidates as the MGB, potentially appealing to traditional BJP voters.

In contrast, the MGB has a significantly higher proportion of Muslim candidates, reflecting its alliance with parties like AIMIM and targeting the 17% Muslim population. These choices indicate tailored strategies: NDA focuses on EBC-upper caste consolidation, while MGB leverages BC-Muslim alliances.

The social composition underscores Bihar's caste calculus, where alliances optimise tickets for winnability. Upper caste over-representation in both groups suggests a disconnect with demographics, where EBCs and BCs dominate but remain fragmented. This could influence outcomes in key constituencies, with NDA's EBC focus countering Mahagathbandhan's BC-Muslim strategy.

As Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj contests all seats with diverse candidates, it may further splinter votes. The analysis highlights how caste remains a pivotal factor in Bihar's electoral landscape.