Arvind Kejriwal may not succeed in national politics

It seems Arvind Kejriwal is trying to get into the Rajya Sabha after losing Delhi, as the AAP is sending a sitting upper house member to the Punjab assembly via a by-election. This is where things get very interesting.

When the AAP was founded in November 2012, their idea was to launch Arvind Kejriwal as a national leader, with Delhi serving as no more than his launchpad. That was why he challenged Narendra Modi in Varanasi in the Lok Sabha election of 2014. However, given his kind of restless politics, he got sucked into the affairs of Delhi, straying from the 'script' or 'plot'.

Eventually, his failure in Delhi after 13 years may prove a blessing in disguise, as debating in the Rajya Sabha will recreate an impression that he is a national leader.

As and when he speaks, he will grab headlines and this time, the headlines will rarely be focused on Delhi, Punjab or any other state where the AAP operates.

Challenges

But if he grabs too much media attention, Rahul Gandhi may not like it, nor will other opposition leaders as they all address the same anti-BJP constituency. The other part of the objective set by the AAP for itself in 2012 was to project Kejriwal as an alternative politician who would strive to change the face of Indian politics. A Gandhi at the Centre, a Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal, a Revanth Reddy in Telangana, a Tejashwi Yadav in Bihar, a Siddaramaiah or a DK Shivakumar in Karnataka, an Uddhav Thackeray or a Supriya Sule in Maharashtra, an MK Stalin in Tamil Nadu, a Pinarayi Vijayan in Kerala or an Omar Abdullah or a Mehbooba Mufti in Jammu and Kashmir would not like to see Kejriwal claim a share of their pie.

The IT cell of the BJP, on its part, will play down Kejriwal's speeches by highlighting the replies from Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah or some other union minister whose ministry Kejriwal targets with his criticism. This will diminish Kejriwal's aura.

Sansad TV's cameramen may play spoilsport, as they always do, focussing on the chair rather than the MP whenever an opposition MP speaks.

AAP: A transactional organisation

The greatest challenge the AAP's national convener will face in the coming 5 years has, however, nothing to do with the government or other parties in the opposition. It is his ability to keep his organisation intact. Through the last 13 years, only such comrades have stuck with him to whom he has given something — a ministry, a department or some avenue to make money. The AAP is a transactional arrangement. It's not an ideological platform (this is another similarity with Bengal politics where the TMC is not an ideological platform; I keep seeing a mini Bengal in Delhi).

Whoever thought this man was going to change the face of Indian politics and drew close to him got disillusioned — unless he/she was given a lollypop. Without the power of a state government with him, which enabled him to distribute largesse among loyalists, can Kejriwal keep his comrades by his side? That is doubtful.

AAP's unimpressive vote shares outside Delhi, Punjab

The AAP has participated in various state elections across India since its establishment in November 2012. Below is a comprehensive overview of AAP's performance, including the number of seats contested, seats won, and vote share percentage in each state election:

Except for three odd cases, the AAP enjoys no more than AIMIM's level of popularity at the hustings.

The AAP participated also in the 2014, 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Below is a summary of its performance in these elections:

The AAP’s electoral performance outside Delhi and Punjab has been lacklustre. In Lok Sabha elections, it has consistently failed to win a single seat even in Delhi, its supposed stronghold.

The party contests elections across India, but barring two state assemblies, its vote shares remain unimpressive. Why, then, should the AAP still be considered a major national party?

Finally, the AAP had risen and caught the public fancy at a time when the nation was braving a plethora of corruption scandals. That phase is gone. The past 11 years of Modi's governance have not been met with incessant reports of financial scandals, in contrast to how the media space used to be during UPA 2. From "suit-boot ki sarkar" to "Adani-Ambani ki sarkar" to the Rafale deal, no muck thrown by the Congress at the ruling party stuck.

The situation that Kejriwal could cash in on is gone. That's not conducive to furthering his national ambitions.