Data that proves why BJP won, AAP lost Delhi

The result of the Delhi election was out on 8 February, but people are still banging their heads over the slim margin of vote share between the BJP and the AAP. While the BJP won 48 seats and the AAP got 22, the difference between their vote shares is a mere 3%. How did this little difference lead to a big difference in the number of seats? Well, here is what we at The Squirrels found out.

Putting it simplistically, some pundits are saying that, since BJP got 45.56% of the votes and the AAP got 43.57% while the Congress got 6.34%, the vote shares of the AAP and Congress combined gives the figure 49.9%, which is 2.7% more than what the BJP has. Therefore, if the I.N.D.I.A fought together, the BJP could have been defeated. Really?

Think of it this way. For all the 27 years that the BJP remained out of power in Delhi, it was securing vote share in the range of 30s: From roughly 32% in 2015 to roughly 38% in 2020 — speaking of the nearest polls in the past. This share kept increasing. And this time, with a little help from the Janata Dal (United) and Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), the NDA has secured nearly 48% votes.

At the same time, the AAP has nosedived by 10% — from 53.57% in 2020 to 43.57% now.

Meanwhile, the Congress was at 4.26% last time whereas, this time, it got 6.34%. This minor jump of about 2% cannot be the defining factor of this election. 

Clearly, the AAP lost favour with the people of Delhi while the BJP held on to its base of RSS swayamsevaks and other dedicated BJP voters and added new sections of Delhi’s current demography to its kitty — Biharis and Purvanchalis from the unauthorised colonies and slums and Jats and Gurjars from the old villages on the outskirts and southern Delhi.

What has gone largely uncovered in the election coverage is that the BJP brought in a large number of karyakartas from Haryana and even distant Purvanchal and Bihar. The BJP knew from the beginning the party was vulnerable in jhuggi-jhopris, unauthorised colonies and rural Delhi. These karyakartas connected instantly with the massive population of tenants in underdeveloped Delhi, speaking in the village dialects of Haryanvi, Bhojpuri and Magahi with the gentry.

Reading between the Delhi election result data

A minute study by Lokniti-CSDS of 28 assembly constituencies shows that almost an equal number of people considered the AAP government to be guilty and innocent of corruption. Almost an equal percentage of voters thought Arvind Kejriwal shouldn’t have spent taxpayers’ money lavishly on the chief minister’s residence, which the BJP damned as “sheeshmahal”. People were equally divided on the issue of the alleged liquor scam.

 
That should have made Delhi a close contest. Why didn’t it? Remember, I said the BJP was holding on to its core supporter base. Above 33 odd per cent of people, even if half the fence-sitters believe the incumbent is wrong, the challenger wins the race! That explains the 3-odd percentage difference in vote shares causing a difference of 26 seats.

On the local issues, recall that the collapse of administration was too fresh in the memory — the inability to breathe in October and November, the promise of cleaning the Yamuna broken at least thrice (2013,15 and 20), the advertisement of ‘great’ government schools and mohalla clinics not matching the scenes of neglected centres in viral videos, women asking how they were supposed to receive Rs 2,100 a month when even the Delhi government hadn’t yet collected the details of their bank accounts, terrible flooding of roads in two consecutive rainy seasons, nothing as visible in the name of development as Sheila Dikshit’s flyovers… the list is endless.

 
Finally, the halo of an anti-corruption crusader that Kejriwal had around his head had vanished. His arrogance in words like “is janam mein to aap hamen haraa nahin sakte” and phrases like “Dilli ka maalik” dealt the death blow to the Aam Aadmi Party’s prospect of a fourth term after 2013, 15 and 20.